⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Short first red after 3 greens, 0.5% target

After three green candles, buyers are extended. The first red candle signals exhaustion—profit-taking has begun. Felix shorts for 0.5%.

🎯 Best Suited For

Overextended momentum, end of runs

"Wait for weakness, then strike. The tired always fall."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

He's not predicting tops—he's fading exhaustion. Works in any market, in any century.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

                        3 consecutive green candles, THEN first red candle appears                    

→ SHORT at close of first red candle (fade the exhaustion)

📉 Exit Conditions

                        • TARGET: Price ≤ entry × 0.995 (+0.5% gain on short)                    

                        • STOP_LOSS: Price ≥ entry × 1.003 (-0.3% loss)                    

                        • MAX_HOLD: 15 bars (quick fade)                    

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

                        GREEN_STREAK:
                        3
                    

                        TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
                        0.5%
                    

                        STOP_LOSS_PCT:
                        0.3%
                    

                        MAX_HOLD_BARS:
                        15
                    

                        COOLDOWN_BARS:
                        78
                    

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Munehisa Homma's candlestick patterns in Dojima

Munehisa Homma was a rice trader in 18th century Japan who developed candlestick charting. His insight: after a strong move, there is always exhaustion.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: Feb 14, 2024 → Feb 14, 2026 (731 days)

Rank	Symbol	Return	Start	Final Value	Trades	Win Rate	Fees	Net	Max DD	Avg Hold	Refunds	Last Refund
1	UNIUSD ₿	+3.96%	$10,000	$10,396	301	42%	-	+$396	-10.5%	0.3h	✓	-
2	XRPUSD ₿	+2.28%	$10,000	$10,228	300	44%	-	+$228	-7.9%	0.4h	✓	-
3	BTCUSD ₿	+0.00%	$10,000	$10,000	NO ENTRY	-	-	-	-0.0%	0.0h	✓	-
4	ETHUSD ₿	-3.77%	$10,000	$9,623	301	43%	-	-$377	-9.4%	0.5h	✓	-
5	SOLUSD ₿	-3.85%	$10,000	$9,615	301	43%	-	-$385	-13.0%	0.3h	✓	-
6	DOGEUSD ₿	-6.59%	$10,000	$9,341	300	42%	-	-$659	-16.2%	0.3h	✓	-
7	LTCUSD ₿	-6.60%	$10,000	$9,340	302	42%	-	-$660	-13.7%	0.4h	✓	-
8	AVAXUSD ₿	-8.85%	$10,000	$9,115	300	43%	-	-$885	-13.7%	0.3h	✓	-
9	LINKUSD ₿	-12.55%	$10,000	$8,745	301	42%	-	-$1,255	-15.6%	0.4h	✓	-
10	SHIBUSD ₿	-14.59%	$10,000	$8,541	297	39%	-	-$1,459	-20.5%	0.3h	✓	-
11	DOTUSD ₿	-23.18%	$10,000	$7,682	302	38%	-	-$2,318	-24.6%	0.4h	✓	-
12	PEPEUSD ₿	-43.33%	$10,000	$5,667	290	36%	-	-$4,333	-43.3%	0.2h	✓	-

👤 Personality

Defensive by nature. Never leads, always counters. Believes the best trades are reactions, not predictions.