11
Rebel Contraire
The Rebel
⚡ Swing Trader 📅 72 years old (Born 1954)"Three red days means the amateurs have sold. Now it's time to buy what they threw away."
Rugged rebel in his early 70s, leather jacket over a suit, motorcycle helmet on desk. Silver hair slicked back. Defiant smirk.
ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.
📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Rebel Contraire $10,000 and let him trade 102 stock symbols from Dec 31, 2023 to today. 🟢 LIVE
$12,423
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at:
$10,000
(+$2,423)
+24.23%
2-Year ROI
58.2%
Win Rate
18,022
Total Trades
Quick Performance Comparison
Click any period to view detailed stats
Equity Curve (2 Years)
Combined P&L across all 102 symbols
⚙️ Trading Strategy
Buy after 3 consecutive down days, target 2% reversal
After three consecutive down days, weak hands have capitulated. Rebel enters betting on the snapback, targeting a 2% relief rally.
🎯 Best Suited For
Oversold bounces, fading crowded trades
"When everyone zigs, I zag. Consensus is the enemy of returns."
📜 Why This Strategy Works
Short-term selling exhausts itself. When the panic subsides, prices snap back as buyers emerge from the sidelines.
Mathematical Formula
CODE VERIFIED —
These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php
📊 Entry Signal
📈 Entry Signal
3 consecutive down days (Close[i] < Close[i-1] for i=0,1,2)
→ BUY at current close price
📉 Exit Conditions
• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.02 (+2% reversal achieved)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 5 days
⚙️ Simulation Parameters
CONSECUTIVE_DOWN_DAYS:
3
TARGET_GAIN_PCT:
2%
STOP_LOSS_PCT:
-3%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS:
5
📖 Historical Origin
Origin: Humphrey B. Neill's "The Art of Contrary Thinking"
Humphrey B. Neill ran contrary opinion newsletters for decades. His thesis: when everyone agrees, everyone is wrong. Markets are driven by herds.
🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)
📊 All Symbol Results
Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve
📅 2 Years:
May 7, 2024
→
May 7, 2026
(730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite
60+ Good
40+ Fair
<40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot
60+ Active
40+ Moderate
<40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance.
Full methodology →
| Rank | Symbol | Score | Mom | Return | Start | Final Value | Trades | Win Rate | Fees | Net | Max DD | Avg Hold | Refunds | Last Refund | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
GOOGL
|
58 | 77 | +148.79% | $10,000 | $24,879 | 161 | 62% | - | +$14,879 | -25.1% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 2 |
NVDA
|
45 | 70🔥 | +125.01% | $10,000 | $22,501 | 216 | 62% | - | +$12,501 | -35.3% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 3 |
MRNA
|
42 | 16🧊 | +109.46% | $10,000 | $20,946 | 265 | 63% | - | +$10,946 | -42.5% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 4 |
CVX
|
69 | 13🧊 | +107.18% | $10,000 | $20,718 | 141 | 65% | - | +$10,718 | -12.9% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 5 |
SOXL
|
43 | 35 | +105.43% | $10,000 | $20,543 | 292 | 60% | - | +$10,543 | -33.0% | 20.2h | ✓ | - | |
| 6 |
GLD
|
70 | 45🧊 | +102.39% | $10,000 | $20,239 | 131 | 64% | - | +$10,239 | -11.3% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 7 |
PLTR
|
45 | 51 | +99.21% | $10,000 | $19,921 | 250 | 64% | - | +$9,921 | -26.0% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 8 |
GS
|
58 | 13🧊 | +94.77% | $10,000 | $19,477 | 163 | 60% | - | +$9,477 | -13.2% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 9 |
CSCO
|
70 | 51 | +92.80% | $10,000 | $19,280 | 140 | 59% | - | +$9,280 | -9.7% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 10 |
AXP
|
57 | 60 | +92.09% | $10,000 | $19,209 | 159 | 64% | - | +$9,209 | -13.8% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 11 |
MU
|
40 | 52 | +91.56% | $10,000 | $19,156 | 228 | 61% | - | +$9,156 | -32.2% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 12 |
XLE
|
61 | 13🧊 | +89.74% | $10,000 | $18,974 | 141 | 63% | - | +$8,974 | -12.9% | 4.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 13 |
AVGO
|
44 | 49 | +81.31% | $10,000 | $18,131 | 207 | 59% | - | +$8,131 | -21.1% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 14 |
WMT
|
54 | 14🧊 | +78.48% | $10,000 | $17,848 | 137 | 64% | - | +$7,848 | -14.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 15 |
NFLX
|
46 | 13🧊 | +77.36% | $10,000 | $17,736 | 160 | 60% | - | +$7,736 | -19.6% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 16 |
MS
|
42 | 71🔥 | +64.00% | $10,000 | $16,400 | 152 | 63% | - | +$6,400 | -18.0% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 17 |
XOM
|
48 | 36 | +63.69% | $10,000 | $16,369 | 149 | 64% | - | +$6,369 | -13.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 18 |
IBM
|
50 | 46 | +62.22% | $10,000 | $16,222 | 155 | 63% | - | +$6,222 | -11.2% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 19 |
PANW
|
42 | 32 | +61.00% | $10,000 | $16,100 | 186 | 62% | - | +$6,100 | -18.6% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 20 |
SNOW
|
31 | 14 | +58.42% | $10,000 | $15,842 | 213 | 59% | - | +$5,842 | -41.0% | 2.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 21 |
INTC
|
33 | 88🔥 | +57.76% | $10,000 | $15,776 | 229 | 62% | - | +$5,776 | -45.8% | 1.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 22 |
ARM
|
37 | 68🔥 | +56.84% | $10,000 | $15,684 | 252 | 63% | - | +$5,684 | -36.8% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 23 |
NET
|
36 | 54 | +54.44% | $10,000 | $15,444 | 220 | 63% | - | +$5,444 | -29.4% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 24 |
ORCL
|
32 | 31 | +53.79% | $10,000 | $15,379 | 194 | 58% | - | +$5,379 | -37.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 25 |
VOO
|
55 | 52 | +53.37% | $10,000 | $15,337 | 121 | 63% | - | +$5,337 | -9.6% | 4.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 26 |
BAC
|
39 | 67🔥 | +51.93% | $10,000 | $15,193 | 148 | 59% | - | +$5,193 | -19.8% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 27 |
META
|
33 | 26 | +50.98% | $10,000 | $15,098 | 168 | 58% | - | +$5,098 | -36.9% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 28 |
OXY
|
35 | 19 | +50.42% | $10,000 | $15,043 | 169 | 60% | - | +$5,043 | -31.5% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 29 |
SPY
|
53 | 51 | +49.03% | $10,000 | $14,903 | 122 | 65% | - | +$4,903 | -9.7% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 30 |
GILD
|
39 | 6🧊 | +47.37% | $10,000 | $14,737 | 147 | 61% | - | +$4,737 | -16.0% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 31 |
VTI
|
49 | 50 | +45.61% | $10,000 | $14,561 | 122 | 63% | - | +$4,561 | -10.5% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 32 |
AAPL
|
37 | 53 | +44.86% | $10,000 | $14,486 | 145 | 65% | - | +$4,486 | -20.3% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 33 |
JPM
|
36 | 44 | +43.08% | $10,000 | $14,308 | 145 | 61% | - | +$4,308 | -21.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 34 |
BRK-B
|
43 | 5🧊 | +40.63% | $10,000 | $14,063 | 129 | 55% | - | +$4,063 | -10.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 35 |
IWM
|
39 | 53 | +39.95% | $10,000 | $13,995 | 139 | 55% | - | +$3,995 | -11.9% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 36 |
JNJ
|
43 | 3🧊 | +38.47% | $10,000 | $13,847 | 127 | 60% | - | +$3,847 | -9.8% | 4.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 37 |
RBLX
|
31 | 13 | +37.30% | $10,000 | $13,730 | 215 | 62% | - | +$3,730 | -34.9% | 1.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 38 |
PM
|
34 | 56🔥 | +36.86% | $10,000 | $13,686 | 141 | 60% | - | +$3,686 | -19.7% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 39 |
USO
|
33 | 42 | +36.41% | $10,000 | $13,641 | 161 | 62% | - | +$3,641 | -29.6% | 3.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 40 |
DIA
|
39 | 45 | +36.13% | $10,000 | $13,613 | 117 | 62% | - | +$3,613 | -13.6% | 5.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 41 |
MA
|
37 | 10🧊 | +35.96% | $10,000 | $13,596 | 136 | 60% | - | +$3,596 | -12.2% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 42 |
WFC
|
35 | 6🧊 | +34.35% | $10,000 | $13,435 | 161 | 61% | - | +$3,435 | -17.9% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 43 |
XLF
|
35 | 17 | +34.20% | $10,000 | $13,420 | 119 | 59% | - | +$3,420 | -17.8% | 4.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 44 |
V
|
36 | 49 | +32.55% | $10,000 | $13,255 | 136 | 54% | - | +$3,255 | -11.9% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 45 |
SLV
|
32 | 9🧊 | +31.74% | $10,000 | $13,174 | 175 | 57% | - | +$3,174 | -18.7% | 2.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 46 |
C
|
32 | 64🔥 | +31.24% | $10,000 | $13,124 | 163 | 59% | - | +$3,124 | -21.2% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 47 |
KO
|
33 | 43 | +31.19% | $10,000 | $13,119 | 122 | 58% | - | +$3,119 | -18.7% | 4.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 48 |
BLK
|
32 | 27 | +31.00% | $10,000 | $13,100 | 151 | 56% | - | +$3,100 | -17.7% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 49 |
AMZN
|
30 | 76🔥 | +30.21% | $10,000 | $13,021 | 169 | 59% | - | +$3,021 | -27.2% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 50 |
TSLA
|
28 | 80🔥 | +29.90% | $10,000 | $12,990 | 234 | 59% | - | +$2,990 | -37.6% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 51 |
COST
|
32 | 12 | +28.78% | $10,000 | $12,878 | 132 | 55% | - | +$2,878 | -17.4% | 4.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 52 |
MSFT
|
29 | 59🔥 | +24.08% | $10,000 | $12,408 | 141 | 57% | - | +$2,408 | -19.1% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 53 |
GME
|
26 | 44 | +22.04% | $10,000 | $12,204 | 232 | 60% | - | +$2,204 | -32.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 54 |
COP
|
27 | 48🔥 | +19.60% | $10,000 | $11,960 | 166 | 57% | - | +$1,960 | -20.4% | 3.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 55 |
XLK
|
26 | 76🔥 | +19.24% | $10,000 | $11,924 | 143 | 62% | - | +$1,924 | -30.8% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 56 |
AMD
|
23 | 95🔥 | +17.89% | $10,000 | $11,789 | 220 | 59% | - | +$1,789 | -52.6% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 57 |
LLY
|
23 | 7 | +15.36% | $10,000 | $11,536 | 181 | 57% | - | +$1,536 | -33.4% | 2.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 58 |
SCHW
|
24 | 5 | +15.07% | $10,000 | $11,507 | 144 | 58% | - | +$1,507 | -16.1% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 59 |
AMGN
|
24 | 25 | +13.19% | $10,000 | $11,319 | 147 | 55% | - | +$1,319 | -20.8% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 60 |
VZ
|
22 | 6 | +8.51% | $10,000 | $10,851 | 131 | 57% | - | +$851 | -15.3% | 4.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 61 |
MCD
|
20 | 1 | +7.54% | $10,000 | $10,754 | 122 | 52% | - | +$754 | -15.2% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 62 |
VRTX
|
21 | 6 | +7.21% | $10,000 | $10,721 | 150 | 58% | - | +$721 | -21.3% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 63 |
HD
|
19 | 6 | +6.91% | $10,000 | $10,691 | 139 | 53% | - | +$691 | -18.6% | 3.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 64 |
PG
|
20 | 40 | +6.86% | $10,000 | $10,686 | 124 | 54% | - | +$686 | -19.3% | 4.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 65 |
QQQ
|
21 | 66🔥 | +6.75% | $10,000 | $10,675 | 129 | 58% | - | +$675 | -24.0% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 66 |
PEP
|
20 | 20 | +6.53% | $10,000 | $10,653 | 129 | 53% | - | +$653 | -16.0% | 4.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 67 |
SPXU
|
19 | 9 | +5.33% | $10,000 | $10,533 | 114 | 59% | - | +$533 | -29.5% | 2.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 68 |
ISRG
|
17 | 5 | +2.94% | $10,000 | $10,294 | 153 | 54% | - | +$294 | -39.2% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 69 |
SLB
|
15 | 71🔥 | +2.24% | $10,000 | $10,224 | 172 | 56% | - | +$224 | -24.3% | 2.9d | ✓ | - | |
| 70 |
ABBV
|
13 | 3 | +0.75% | $10,000 | $10,075 | 143 | 56% | - | +$75 | -25.0% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 71 |
CRWD
|
13 | 27 | -3.39% | $10,000 | $9,661 | 220 | 60% | - | -$339 | -37.8% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 72 |
HOOD
|
11 | 40🔥 | -3.42% | $10,000 | $9,658 | 263 | 57% | - | -$342 | -32.1% | 1.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 73 |
UVXY
|
10 | 47🔥 | -6.99% | $10,000 | $9,301 | 283 | 57% | - | -$699 | -48.5% | 22.7h | ✓ | - | |
| 74 |
SMCI
|
12 | 67🔥 | -7.08% | $10,000 | $9,292 | 282 | 58% | - | -$708 | -63.9% | 22.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 75 |
BMY
|
10 | 2 | -7.66% | $10,000 | $9,234 | 160 | 55% | - | -$766 | -39.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 76 |
MDT
|
7 | 5 | -8.99% | $10,000 | $9,101 | 131 | 51% | - | -$899 | -15.1% | 4.3d | ✓ | - | |
| 77 |
MRK
|
12 | 5 | -9.28% | $10,000 | $9,072 | 154 | 58% | - | -$928 | -29.6% | 3.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 78 |
TMO
|
10 | 5 | -11.53% | $10,000 | $8,847 | 149 | 55% | - | -$1,153 | -23.9% | 3.6d | ✓ | - | |
| 79 |
TLT
|
10 | 3 | -11.76% | $10,000 | $8,824 | 112 | 52% | - | -$1,176 | -15.8% | 5.2d | ✓ | - | |
| 80 |
DIS
|
8 | 2 | -12.08% | $10,000 | $8,792 | 141 | 48% | - | -$1,208 | -25.4% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 81 |
DKNG
|
12 | 59🔥 | -14.10% | $10,000 | $8,590 | 219 | 57% | - | -$1,410 | -46.7% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 82 |
PFE
|
9 | 2 | -14.65% | $10,000 | $8,535 | 141 | 54% | - | -$1,465 | -30.4% | 3.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 83 |
PYPL
|
11 | 67🔥 | -14.83% | $10,000 | $8,517 | 170 | 56% | - | -$1,483 | -52.5% | 2.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 84 |
BIIB
|
10 | 40🔥 | -15.64% | $10,000 | $8,436 | 164 | 52% | - | -$1,564 | -32.7% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 85 |
VXX
|
10 | 50🔥 | -18.74% | $10,000 | $8,126 | 231 | 56% | - | -$1,874 | -57.1% | 1.8d | ✓ | - | |
| 86 |
REGN
|
11 | 10 | -19.05% | $10,000 | $8,095 | 165 | 56% | - | -$1,905 | -42.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 87 |
SOFI
|
10 | 18 | -19.63% | $10,000 | $8,037 | 241 | 56% | - | -$1,963 | -43.4% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 88 |
ARKK
|
11 | 12 | -19.86% | $10,000 | $8,014 | 188 | 60% | - | -$1,986 | -23.5% | 2.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 89 |
UNH
|
10 | 64🔥 | -24.94% | $10,000 | $7,506 | 162 | 56% | - | -$2,494 | -41.5% | 3.0d | ✓ | - | |
| 90 |
ACN
|
8 | 37🔥 | -31.95% | $10,000 | $6,805 | 152 | 50% | - | -$3,195 | -41.3% | 3.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 91 |
NIO
|
9 | 35🔥 | -32.17% | $10,000 | $6,783 | 243 | 55% | - | -$3,217 | -39.7% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 92 |
MARA
|
11 | 14 | -32.19% | $10,000 | $6,781 | 319 | 55% | - | -$3,219 | -40.2% | 16.1h | ✓ | - | |
| 93 |
ADBE
|
9 | 52🔥 | -33.14% | $10,000 | $6,686 | 157 | 52% | - | -$3,314 | -40.9% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 94 |
CRM
|
10 | 15 | -36.44% | $10,000 | $6,356 | 168 | 57% | - | -$3,644 | -46.3% | 3.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 95 |
SQQQ
|
9 | 9 | -37.34% | $10,000 | $6,266 | 239 | 55% | - | -$3,734 | -53.7% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 96 |
TQQQ
|
11 | 35🔥 | -41.45% | $10,000 | $5,855 | 236 | 56% | - | -$4,145 | -41.0% | 1.5d | ✓ | - | |
| 97 |
RIOT
|
11 | 43🔥 | -44.56% | $10,000 | $5,544 | 313 | 60% | - | -$4,456 | -55.6% | 17.3h | ✓ | - | |
| 98 |
CMCSA
|
6 | 2 | -46.22% | $10,000 | $5,378 | 140 | 47% | - | -$4,622 | -47.7% | 3.7d | ✓ | - | |
| 99 |
RIVN
|
10 | 16 | -51.51% | $10,000 | $4,849 | 271 | 58% | - | -$5,151 | -60.0% | 1.1d | ✓ | - | |
| 100 |
AMC
|
9 | 15 | -56.16% | $10,000 | $4,384 | 222 | 55% | - | -$5,616 | -57.1% | 1.4d | ✓ | - | |
| 101 |
COIN
|
9 | 16 | -60.82% | $10,000 | $3,918 | 283 | 55% | - | -$6,082 | -67.1% | 23.4h | ✓ | - | |
| 102 |
LCID
|
8 | 15 | -69.95% | $10,000 | $3,005 | 268 | 56% | - | -$6,995 | -69.8% | 23.6h | ✓ | - |
👤 Personality
Contrarian to a fault. If everyone agrees on something, he bets against it. Gets physically uncomfortable in consensus situations.