Compendium › Bruno Breakout › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Bruno Breakout's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 4 trades in period

-1.70%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,325.36
Current Value
25%
Win Rate
$6,434.77
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:20:45

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 83%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.2/10
Raw Quality 3.2/100
× Confidence 0.83 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (83%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,848
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,434.77
Current Value
$6,325.36
Period P&L
$-109.41
Max Drawdown
-64.5%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
1 / 3
Best Trade
+15.42%
Worst Trade
-5.46%
Avg Trade Return
-0.07%
Avg Hold Time
8.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$54,812.19
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-109.41
Net P&L (after fees)
$-109.41
Gross Return
-1.70%
Net Return (after fees)
-1.70%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Bruno Breakout had $6,434.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET $46.90 137 $6,425.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 11:55am ET $54.13 137 $7,415.81 $7,425.55 +$990.78
(+15.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 9:30am ET $51.94 142 $7,376.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 11:45am ET $49.27 142 $6,996.34 $7,045.84 $-379.71
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $53.07 132 $7,005.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 12:15pm ET $50.17 132 $6,622.44 $6,663.28 $-382.56
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $51.99 128 $6,654.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 10:30am ET $49.35 128 $6,316.80 $6,325.36 $-337.92
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,325.36
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,674.64
Total Return: -36.75%
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