Compendium › Bruno Breakout › LLY
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
LLY
Alpaca Tradeable

Bruno Breakout's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

-14.45%
Year to Date Return
$10,972.42
Current Value
0%
Win Rate
$12,826.30
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:11:28

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

9
Lifetime
Confidence: 55%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
8.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.6/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 15.5/100
× Confidence 0.55 = 8.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (55%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,787
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$12,826.30
Current Value
$10,972.42
Period P&L
$-1,853.88
Max Drawdown
-19.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-44.49

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
0 / 3
Best Trade
-5.07%
Worst Trade
-5.35%
Avg Trade Return
-5.20%
Avg Hold Time
3.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$69,484.20
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,853.88
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,853.88
Gross Return
-14.45%
Net Return (after fees)
-14.45%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Bruno Breakout had $12,826.30 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET $1,090.07 11 $11,990.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:45am ET $1,033.63 11 $11,369.96 $12,205.49 $-620.81
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $1,105.51 11 $12,160.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 12:40pm ET $1,049.47 11 $11,544.19 $11,589.07 $-616.42
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $1,047.06 11 $11,517.66 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:30am ET $991.00 11 $10,901.01 $10,972.42 $-616.65
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,972.42
Net Profit/Loss: +$972.42
Total Return: +9.72%
Back to Bruno Breakout