Compendium › Crasher Macro › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Crasher Macro's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 1 trades in period

+2.57%
Last Year Return
$10,917.75
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$10,644.32
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:29:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Mar 6, 2026

0
Lifetime
Confidence: 0%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
84.0/35
Total Return
45.6/25
Win Rate
56.8/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
54.5/10
Raw Quality 0.0/100
× Confidence 0.00 = 0.0

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (0%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
105,318
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
366 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,644.32
Current Value
$10,917.75
Period P&L
$273.43
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
—

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
1
Winners / Losers
1 / 0
Best Trade
+2.58%
Worst Trade
+2.58%
Avg Trade Return
+2.58%
Avg Hold Time
2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$21,616.11
Estimated Fees
$54.04
Gross P&L
$273.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$219.39
Gross Return
+2.57%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.06%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 366 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 1 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Crasher Macro had $10,644.32 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 21, 2025 1:50pm ET $106,316.94 0 $10,644.32 — — —
🔴 SELL May 23, 2025 1:50pm ET $109,587.74 0 $10,971.79 $10,917.75 +$273.43
(+2.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,917.75
Net Profit/Loss: +$917.75
Total Return: +9.18%
Back to Crasher Macro