Compendium › Danny Dip › SMCI
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
SMCI
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-03-22 to present • 23 trades in period

+31.88%
Last 3 Months Return
$4,889.09
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$3,707.29
Period Start
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PHASE 4: RECOVERY
Signals generated 2026-06-22 12:27:09

Bounce in progress. Hold existing positions, let trailing stops manage exits.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
45.9 neutral
20d Trend
+4.5%
5d Trend
+2.6%
EMA20 Dist
-2.9%
ATR%
6.5%
Range Pos
8%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.3/10
Raw Quality 4.3/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.3

30-Day Momentum

6
-6.0%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
8
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 7.1 Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-23 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
63 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$3,707.29
Current Value
$4,889.09
Period P&L
$1,181.80
Max Drawdown
-80.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.26

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
11 / 12
Best Trade
+13.79%
Worst Trade
-3.71%
Avg Trade Return
+1.35%
Avg Hold Time
20.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$218,581.40
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,181.80
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,181.80
Gross Return
+31.88%
Net Return (after fees)
+31.88%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SMCI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 63 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $3,707.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:30am ET $21.30 174 $3,706.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 2:35pm ET $22.40 174 $3,896.73 $3,897.82 +$190.53
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.1h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $23.41 166 $3,886.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:50am ET $22.65 166 $3,759.90 $3,771.66 $-126.16
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET $21.20 177 $3,753.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:20pm ET $22.36 177 $3,957.72 $3,976.10 +$204.44
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:45am ET $21.95 181 $3,972.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $23.09 181 $4,179.24 $4,182.39 +$206.29
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:45am ET $22.57 185 $4,175.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET $21.83 185 $4,037.63 $4,044.57 $-137.82
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $22.97 176 $4,042.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:45am ET $24.22 176 $4,262.72 $4,264.57 +$220.00
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $26.51 160 $4,241.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $27.98 160 $4,476.80 $4,499.77 +$235.20
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 10:15am ET $28.42 158 $4,490.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET $27.54 158 $4,351.32 $4,360.71 $-139.06
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $26.58 164 $4,359.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $25.66 164 $4,208.24 $4,209.83 $-150.88
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
10 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 12:10pm ET $27.56 152 $4,189.10 — — —
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $31.36 152 $4,766.72 $4,787.45 +$577.62
(+13.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
11 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 9:35am ET $33.57 142 $4,766.94 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2026 10:55am ET $35.33 142 $5,017.57 $5,038.08 +$250.63
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
12 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 10:25am ET $35.17 143 $5,030.02 — — —
🔴 SELL May 11, 2026 3:25pm ET $33.97 143 $4,858.42 $4,866.48 $-171.60
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5h held
13 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $31.55 154 $4,858.70 — — —
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 9:40am ET $30.43 154 $4,686.22 $4,694.00 $-172.48
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
14 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 10:10am ET $29.90 156 $4,664.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $31.45 156 $4,906.98 $4,936.58 +$242.58
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.4h held
15 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 11:05am ET $32.51 151 $4,909.01 — — —
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 9:35am ET $34.26 151 $5,173.26 $5,200.83 +$264.25
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held
16 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 10:25am ET $37.27 139 $5,180.53 — — —
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:20am ET $39.53 139 $5,493.98 $5,514.28 +$313.45
(+6.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
17 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:40am ET $46.52 118 $5,489.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:35am ET $50.65 118 $5,976.70 $6,001.62 +$487.34
(+8.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4d held
18 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:40am ET $48.42 123 $5,955.64 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:50am ET $46.69 123 $5,742.87 $5,788.85 $-212.77
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
19 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $45.72 126 $5,760.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:35am ET $44.28 126 $5,579.28 $5,607.41 $-181.44
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:35am ET $43.13 130 $5,606.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $41.55 130 $5,401.50 $5,402.01 $-205.40
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:45am ET $34.30 157 $5,385.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:20am ET $33.25 157 $5,220.25 $5,237.16 $-164.85
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
35m held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 9:30am ET $30.98 169 $5,235.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 9:35am ET $29.83 169 $5,041.27 $5,042.81 $-194.35
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5m held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:10am ET $30.00 168 $5,040.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 11:10am ET $29.08 168 $4,886.28 $4,889.09 $-153.72
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,889.09
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,110.91
Total Return: -51.11%
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