Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 13:42:51

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

42
Lifetime
Confidence: 78%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
25.2/35
Total Return
13.7/25
Win Rate
4.4/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 54.1/100
× Confidence 0.78 = 42.1

30-Day Momentum

15
+3.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.7 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (78%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,274
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
123 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$11,698.74
Current Value
$14,322.30
Period P&L
$2,623.56
Max Drawdown
-6.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.31

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
8 / 8
Best Trade
+6.82%
Worst Trade
-3.72%
Avg Trade Return
+1.37%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$410,797.02
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,623.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,623.56
Gross Return
+22.43%
Net Return (after fees)
+22.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 123 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $11,698.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $297.60 39 $11,606.40
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $317.36 39 $12,377.04 $12,469.38 +$770.64
(+6.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:35am ET $305.84 40 $12,233.60
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:05am ET $295.16 40 $11,806.40 $12,042.18 $-427.20
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:05am ET $283.45 42 $11,904.90
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 11:40am ET $297.76 42 $12,505.92 $12,643.20 +$601.02
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $283.36 44 $12,467.84
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 1:30pm ET $274.79 44 $12,090.76 $12,266.12 $-377.08
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 23, 2026 10:20am ET $249.75 49 $12,237.76
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 2:00pm ET $240.47 49 $11,783.03 $11,811.39 $-454.73
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7h held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $235.97 50 $11,798.50
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET $248.72 50 $12,436.00 $12,448.89 +$637.50
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 10:00am ET $247.67 50 $12,383.50
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET $239.40 50 $11,970.00 $12,035.39 $-413.50
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:00am ET $235.65 51 $12,017.90
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 3:00pm ET $247.49 51 $12,621.99 $12,639.49 +$604.10
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 54 $12,464.28
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:40am ET $223.48 54 $12,067.65 $12,242.86 $-396.63
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 9:50am ET $225.48 54 $12,175.92
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 9:50am ET $225.23 54 $12,162.15 $12,229.09 $-13.77
(-0.1%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
14d held
11 🟢 BUY May 13, 2026 10:40am ET $213.07 57 $12,144.99
🔴 SELL May 19, 2026 9:30am ET $225.50 57 $12,853.50 $12,937.60 +$708.51
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
12 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 9:35am ET $216.93 59 $12,798.87
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 9:30am ET $231.72 59 $13,671.48 $13,810.21 +$872.61
(+6.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
13 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 9:35am ET $247.18 55 $13,595.03
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:30am ET $260.53 55 $14,329.15 $14,544.33 +$734.12
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:15pm ET $315.92 46 $14,532.32
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $332.41 46 $15,290.86 $15,302.87 +$758.54
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $291.62 52 $15,164.24
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $282.15 52 $14,671.80 $14,810.43 $-492.44
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
16 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 12:00pm ET $274.73 53 $14,560.69
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 10:10am ET $265.52 53 $14,072.56 $14,322.30 $-488.13
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,322.30
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,322.30
Total Return: +43.22%
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