Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-22 16:07:10

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.6/35
Total Return
13.3/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 31.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 31.3

30-Day Momentum

4
-4.2%
30d Return
29%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Declining (-27 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,560
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$14,440.01
Current Value
$13,884.57
Period P&L
$-555.43
Max Drawdown
-11.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.29

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
8
Winners / Losers
2 / 6
Best Trade
+3.97%
Worst Trade
-3.11%
Avg Trade Return
-0.60%
Avg Hold Time
1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$230,181.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-555.43
Net P&L (after fees)
$-555.43
Gross Return
-3.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 8 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $14,440.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $143.30 101 $14,473.30
🔴 SELL May 22, 2026 10:00am ET $142.40 101 $14,382.40 $14,496.56 $-90.90
(-0.6%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.1h held
2 🟢 BUY May 26, 2026 3:25pm ET $137.64 105 $14,452.20
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 3:35pm ET $137.40 105 $14,426.48 $14,470.84 $-25.72
(-0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
10m held
3 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 3:40pm ET $131.00 110 $14,409.91
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 10:15am ET $129.42 110 $14,236.19 $14,297.12 $-173.72
(-1.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
18.6h held
4 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:40am ET $130.10 109 $14,181.28
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:30am ET $135.27 109 $14,744.97 $14,860.81 +$563.69
(+4.0%)
DEATH_CROSS
4d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 4, 2026 2:30pm ET $136.58 108 $14,750.64
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $135.04 108 $14,583.78 $14,693.95 $-166.86
(-1.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
19h held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:10pm ET $135.51 108 $14,635.08
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 9:30am ET $131.87 108 $14,241.96 $14,300.83 $-393.12
(-2.7%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 10:45am ET $134.29 106 $14,234.74
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:15pm ET $134.56 106 $14,263.54 $14,329.63 +$28.80
(+0.2%)
DEATH_CROSS
2.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 1:05pm ET $120.21 119 $14,304.99
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 9:30am ET $116.47 119 $13,859.93 $13,884.57 $-445.06
(-3.1%)
DEATH_CROSS
20.4h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,884.57
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,884.57
Total Return: +38.85%
Back to Grace Crossover