VTI Grace Crossover's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 37 trades in period
-2.77%
Year to Date Return
$9,578.38
Current Value
32%
Win Rate
$9,851.63
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
36.2 neutral
20d Trend
-2.9%
5d Trend
-2.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.9%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026
5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality
5.2/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 5.1
30-Day Momentum
21
+1.1%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
9
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 25.0
Conf: 0.84×
Accelerating (+16 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,948
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$9,851.63
Current Value
$9,578.38
Period P&L
$-273.19
Max Drawdown
-11.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
12 /
25
Best Trade
+1.32%
Worst Trade
-1.57%
Avg Trade Return
-0.08%
Avg Hold Time
12.1h
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$711,116.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-273.19
Net P&L (after fees)
$-273.19
Gross Return
-2.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VTI Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Grace Crossover had $9,851.63 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $339.48 | 29 | $9,844.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 11:10am ET | $339.43 | 29 | $9,843.47 | $9,850.11 |
$-1.45 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 8, 2026 11:45am ET | $340.27 | 28 | $9,527.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 1:25pm ET | $340.17 | 28 | $9,524.76 | $9,847.45 |
$-2.66 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.7h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 11:05am ET | $342.41 | 28 | $9,587.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 9:50am ET | $342.67 | 28 | $9,594.62 | $9,854.60 |
+$7.14 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
22.8h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:55pm ET | $339.86 | 28 | $9,516.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 2:10pm ET | $343.22 | 28 | $9,610.16 | $9,948.68 |
+$94.08 (+1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:35am ET | $336.59 | 29 | $9,761.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $336.85 | 29 | $9,768.65 | $9,956.22 |
+$7.54 (+0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:35am ET | $341.01 | 29 | $9,889.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 23, 2026 12:20pm ET | $340.94 | 29 | $9,887.12 | $9,954.06 |
$-2.15 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $342.60 | 29 | $9,935.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 12:30pm ET | $343.28 | 29 | $9,954.98 | $9,973.54 |
+$19.47 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.8h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 2:50pm ET | $343.26 | 29 | $9,954.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 3:45pm ET | $342.79 | 29 | $9,940.91 | $9,960.05 |
$-13.48 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
54m held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $341.56 | 29 | $9,905.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:25am ET | $340.50 | 29 | $9,874.50 | $9,929.31 |
$-30.74 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
18m held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:10pm ET | $338.57 | 29 | $9,818.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $338.66 | 29 | $9,821.14 | $9,931.92 |
+$2.61 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
19.8h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 11:50am ET | $335.83 | 29 | $9,739.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 1:15pm ET | $335.07 | 29 | $9,716.89 | $9,909.59 |
$-22.33 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.4h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 1:35pm ET | $342.98 | 28 | $9,603.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:25pm ET | $342.90 | 28 | $9,601.20 | $9,907.35 |
$-2.24 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8h held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 11, 2026 9:30am ET | $343.78 | 28 | $9,625.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 10:05am ET | $341.82 | 28 | $9,570.96 | $9,852.47 |
$-54.88 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
35m held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $336.63 | 29 | $9,762.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 3:25pm ET | $337.27 | 29 | $9,780.83 | $9,871.03 |
+$18.56 (+0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $339.18 | 29 | $9,836.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $338.52 | 29 | $9,817.08 | $9,851.89 |
$-19.14 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:15pm ET | $336.77 | 29 | $9,766.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 23, 2026 2:05pm ET | $336.20 | 29 | $9,749.80 | $9,835.22 |
$-16.67 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
50m held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 24, 2026 2:45pm ET | $339.13 | 29 | $9,834.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $341.65 | 29 | $9,907.85 | $9,908.22 |
+$73.00 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:35am ET | $338.61 | 29 | $9,819.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $335.24 | 29 | $9,721.96 | $9,810.49 |
$-97.73 (-1.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.9d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:35am ET | $333.61 | 29 | $9,674.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 3:50pm ET | $335.83 | 29 | $9,738.93 | $9,874.73 |
+$64.24 (+0.7%) |
DEATH_CROSS
4.3h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:00pm ET | $332.51 | 29 | $9,642.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:15pm ET | $331.98 | 29 | $9,627.42 | $9,859.36 |
$-15.37 (-0.2%) |
DEATH_CROSS
3.3h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 11:00am ET | $334.27 | 29 | $9,693.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 11, 2026 1:40pm ET | $332.40 | 29 | $9,639.60 | $9,804.99 |
$-54.38 (-0.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.7h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 1:40pm ET | $329.78 | 29 | $9,563.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 3:20pm ET | $326.71 | 29 | $9,474.73 | $9,716.10 |
$-88.89 (-0.9%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $331.04 | 29 | $9,600.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 11:30am ET | $331.11 | 29 | $9,602.05 | $9,717.99 |
+$1.89 (+0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:00pm ET | $328.93 | 29 | $9,538.97 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 2:40pm ET | $323.76 | 29 | $9,388.90 | $9,567.92 |
$-150.07 (-1.6%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $325.08 | 29 | $9,427.32 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:55am ET | $324.84 | 29 | $9,420.36 | $9,560.96 |
$-6.96 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
2.4h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $326.60 | 29 | $9,471.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 2:35pm ET | $325.54 | 29 | $9,440.66 | $9,530.22 |
$-30.74 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $315.08 | 30 | $9,452.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 10:05am ET | $313.63 | 30 | $9,408.90 | $9,486.72 |
$-43.50 (-0.5%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 3:45pm ET | $323.83 | 29 | $9,391.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 3:50pm ET | $323.39 | 29 | $9,378.31 | $9,473.96 |
$-12.76 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
5m held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 2:20pm ET | $324.82 | 29 | $9,419.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 2:40pm ET | $323.71 | 29 | $9,387.59 | $9,441.77 |
$-32.19 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 3:10pm ET | $335.55 | 28 | $9,395.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 11:40am ET | $335.52 | 28 | $9,394.56 | $9,440.79 |
$-0.98 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
20.5h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 3:15pm ET | $342.31 | 27 | $9,242.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 12:45pm ET | $343.48 | 27 | $9,273.83 | $9,472.25 |
+$31.46 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:50pm ET | $345.90 | 27 | $9,339.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 1:25pm ET | $350.45 | 27 | $9,462.15 | $9,595.10 |
+$122.85 (+1.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.6h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 2:55pm ET | $349.25 | 27 | $9,429.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 2:20pm ET | $350.33 | 27 | $9,458.91 | $9,624.26 |
+$29.16 (+0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
23.4h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 2:35pm ET | $350.15 | 27 | $9,454.06 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 3:35pm ET | $349.20 | 27 | $9,428.53 | $9,598.74 |
$-25.52 (-0.3%) |
DEATH_CROSS
1h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:50am ET | $352.17 | 27 | $9,508.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 10:20am ET | $351.88 | 27 | $9,500.76 | $9,591.04 |
$-7.70 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
30m held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 1:35pm ET | $350.23 | 27 | $9,456.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 11:05am ET | $350.09 | 27 | $9,452.40 | $9,587.36 |
$-3.68 (-0.0%) |
DEATH_CROSS
21.5h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2026 1:30pm ET | $356.36 | 26 | $9,265.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 2:10pm ET | $356.01 | 26 | $9,256.26 | $9,578.38 |
$-8.98 (-0.1%) |
DEATH_CROSS
40m held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,578.38
Net Profit/Loss:
$-421.62
Total Return:
-4.22%