Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
Signals generated 2026-06-20 13:12:28

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
50.5 neutral
20d Trend
+69.9%
5d Trend
-8.4%
EMA20 Dist
+0.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
31%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

8
Lifetime
Confidence: 94%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
3.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.8/10
Raw Quality 8.1/100
× Confidence 0.94 = 7.6

30-Day Momentum

41
+7.3%
30d Return
86%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 52.2 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (94%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-20 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$9,208.90
Current Value
$9,881.55
Period P&L
$672.67
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.27

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
7
Winners / Losers
6 / 1
Best Trade
+9.13%
Worst Trade
-5.68%
Avg Trade Return
+1.10%
Avg Hold Time
11m

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$133,335.80
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$672.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$672.67
Gross Return
+7.30%
Net Return (after fees)
+7.30%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SOXL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 7 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $9,208.90 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 9:45am ET $217.37 42 $9,129.54
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:50am ET $217.49 42 $9,134.58 $9,213.92 +$5.04
(+0.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:45am ET $259.11 35 $9,068.85
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 10:25am ET $282.77 35 $9,896.95 $10,042.02 +$828.10
(+9.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
40m held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $228.50 43 $9,825.50
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:45am ET $215.52 43 $9,267.30 $9,483.82 $-558.20
(-5.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
15m held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 10:20am ET $211.17 44 $9,291.48
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:25am ET $217.07 44 $9,551.08 $9,743.42 +$259.60
(+2.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:00am ET $190.67 51 $9,724.17
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2026 11:05am ET $191.85 51 $9,784.35 $9,803.60 +$60.18
(+0.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
6 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 11:00am ET $252.87 38 $9,609.06
🔴 SELL Jun 16, 2026 11:05am ET $252.99 38 $9,613.62 $9,808.16 +$4.56
(+0.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $236.17 41 $9,682.97
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:45pm ET $237.96 41 $9,756.36 $9,881.55 +$73.39
(+0.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,881.55
Net Profit/Loss: $-118.45
Total Return: -1.18%
Back to Penelope Swing