Compendium › Penelope Swing › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-07 to present • 3 trades in period

+0.22%
Last Year Return
$10,916.37
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$10,892.29
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 09:17:24

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Mar 31, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
5.8/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
14.5/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
7.7/10
Raw Quality 38.8/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 17.8

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
39,595
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-07 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,892.29
Current Value
$10,916.37
Period P&L
$24.06
Max Drawdown
-5.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
2 / 1
Best Trade
+0.80%
Worst Trade
-1.34%
Avg Trade Return
+0.08%
Avg Hold Time
1.6h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$65,882.84
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$24.06
Net P&L (after fees)
$24.06
Gross Return
+0.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,892.29 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Aug 12, 2025 10:15am ET $4.50 2,422 $10,890.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 12, 2025 11:35am ET $4.53 2,422 $10,975.29 $10,977.31 +$85.01
(+0.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 9:30am ET $5.64 1,948 $10,976.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2025 11:05am ET $5.68 1,948 $11,064.64 $11,064.97 +$87.66
(+0.8%) 		RESISTANCE
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 31, 2025 9:35am ET $5.08 2,179 $11,062.13 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 11:25am ET $5.01 2,179 $10,913.52 $10,916.37 $-148.61
(-1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,916.37
Net Profit/Loss: +$916.37
Total Return: +9.16%
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