Compendium › Penelope Swing › RIVN
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIVN
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+3.25%
Last Year Return
$10,580.72
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$10,247.57
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 09:08:32

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
17.7 oversold
20d Trend
-28.4%
5d Trend
-8.8%
EMA20 Dist
-13.1%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
12%
Bounce Ratio
0.1×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored Apr 14, 2026

14
Lifetime
Confidence: 46%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
3.6/35
Total Return
6.9/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
2.6/15
Consistency
7.3/10
Raw Quality 29.5/100
× Confidence 0.46 = 13.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (46%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
36,902
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,247.57
Current Value
$10,580.72
Period P&L
$333.15
Max Drawdown
-5.7%
Sharpe Ratio
1.58

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
4 / 0
Best Trade
+1.31%
Worst Trade
+0.09%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
1.1h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$82,873.69
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$333.15
Net P&L (after fees)
$333.15
Gross Return
+3.25%
Net Return (after fees)
+3.25%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIVN Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,247.57 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET $13.46 761 $10,243.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2025 11:10am ET $13.54 761 $10,300.14 $10,304.65 +$57.07
(+0.6%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 10:55am ET $16.52 623 $10,291.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 11:50am ET $16.54 623 $10,301.31 $10,314.00 +$9.35
(+0.1%) 		RESISTANCE
54m held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 11, 2025 10:30am ET $16.46 626 $10,303.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 11:20am ET $16.67 626 $10,434.11 $10,444.14 +$130.15
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:35am ET $17.19 607 $10,431.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 11:25am ET $17.41 607 $10,567.87 $10,580.72 +$136.58
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
48m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,580.72
Net Profit/Loss: +$580.72
Total Return: +5.81%
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