Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:24:53

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
61.7 neutral
20d Trend
+17.9%
5d Trend
+12.1%
EMA20 Dist
+11.8%
ATR%
7.0%
Range Pos
24%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.2/10
Raw Quality 3.5/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 2.7

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,127
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,279.64
Current Value
$6,678.65
Period P&L
$-601.01
Max Drawdown
-29.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.24

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
5 / 7
Best Trade
+4.10%
Worst Trade
-6.36%
Avg Trade Return
-0.68%
Avg Hold Time
2.9h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$169,595.50
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-601.01
Net P&L (after fees)
$-601.01
Gross Return
-8.26%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.26%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 UVXY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $7,279.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 10, 2025 9:30am ET $51.10 142 $7,256.20
🔴 SELL Nov 10, 2025 11:05am ET $51.58 142 $7,323.65 $7,347.10 +$67.45
(+0.9%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET $53.45 137 $7,322.65
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:05am ET $55.64 137 $7,622.70 $7,647.15 +$300.05
(+4.1%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 11:55am ET $62.09 123 $7,637.07
🔴 SELL Nov 21, 2025 3:05pm ET $61.25 123 $7,533.75 $7,543.83 $-103.32
(-1.4%)
RESISTANCE
3.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 9:45am ET $38.13 197 $7,511.63
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 11:30am ET $37.82 197 $7,450.40 $7,482.60 $-61.23
(-0.8%)
RESISTANCE
1.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 9:40am ET $37.88 197 $7,462.36
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 11:15am ET $37.69 197 $7,425.91 $7,446.16 $-36.45
(-0.5%)
RESISTANCE
1.6h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET $45.17 164 $7,407.88
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 11:50am ET $44.51 164 $7,299.64 $7,337.92 $-108.24
(-1.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:20am ET $52.23 140 $7,312.20
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 12:45pm ET $49.20 140 $6,888.00 $6,913.72 $-424.20
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 9:55am ET $47.58 145 $6,898.38
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 9:30am ET $44.55 145 $6,459.74 $6,475.08 $-438.64
(-6.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $48.58 133 $6,461.15
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:35am ET $49.06 133 $6,525.55 $6,539.48 +$64.40
(+1.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 9:30am ET $56.16 116 $6,514.56
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:35am ET $56.69 116 $6,575.46 $6,600.38 +$60.90
(+0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $50.60 130 $6,578.65
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:50am ET $51.69 130 $6,719.70 $6,741.43 +$141.05
(+2.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $43.46 155 $6,735.53
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:35am ET $43.05 155 $6,672.75 $6,678.65 $-62.78
(-0.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,678.65
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,321.35
Total Return: -33.21%
Back to Penelope Swing