Compendium › Penelope Swing › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Penelope Swing's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 3 trades in period

+6.00%
Year to Date Return
$10,930.73
Current Value
100%
Win Rate
$10,312.01
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 12:22:17

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 56%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
4.3/35
Total Return
8.4/25
Win Rate
12.1/15
Profit Factor
3.5/15
Consistency
7.1/10
Raw Quality 35.4/100
× Confidence 0.56 = 19.9

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (56%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
8,477
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
92 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$10,312.01
Current Value
$10,930.73
Period P&L
$618.74
Max Drawdown
-7.6%
Sharpe Ratio
1.77

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
3 / 0
Best Trade
+3.54%
Worst Trade
+1.06%
Avg Trade Return
+1.97%
Avg Hold Time
7h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$63,582.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$618.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$618.74
Gross Return
+6.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 92 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Penelope Swing had $10,312.01 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET $48.01 214 $10,274.14 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 11:15am ET $48.64 214 $10,408.94 $10,446.79 +$134.80
(+1.3%) 		RESISTANCE
1.7h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 2:20pm ET $42.24 247 $10,434.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $43.74 247 $10,803.78 $10,816.33 +$369.54
(+3.5%) 		RESISTANCE
19.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 10:05am ET $48.97 220 $10,773.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:10am ET $49.49 220 $10,887.80 $10,930.73 +$114.40
(+1.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,930.73
Net Profit/Loss: +$930.73
Total Return: +9.31%
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