Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-20 22:31:12

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
23
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.6
Active
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 20, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 4.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

4
-16.2%
30d Return
14%
Win Rate
7
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 5.7 Conf: 0.78×
Cooling (-0 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,815
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-20 → 2026-06-21
Trading Days
94 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,992.64
Current Value
$4,496.12
Period P&L
$-970.56
Max Drawdown
-66.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.16

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
4 / 11
Best Trade
+8.40%
Worst Trade
-4.58%
Avg Trade Return
-0.86%
Avg Hold Time
6.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$148,630.68
Estimated Fees
$371.58
Gross P&L
$-970.56
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,342.13
Gross Return
-19.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-26.88%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 94 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $4,992.64 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 7:50am ET $71,152.40 0 $5,232.38
🔴 SELL Mar 22, 2026 7:55am ET $68,300.40 0 $5,022.65 $5,006.82 $-235.37
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18d held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:05pm ET $71,195.40 0 $5,006.82
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:15pm ET $68,346.30 0 $4,806.46 $4,806.46 $-224.90
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $68,549.50 0 $4,806.46
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 10:30am ET $65,770.40 0 $4,611.60 $4,611.60 $-218.41
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 29, 2026 7:30pm ET $65,958.30 0 $4,611.60
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 7:00pm ET $71,498.00 0 $4,998.92 $4,998.92 +$363.29
(+8.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
9d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 9:35am ET $70,999.90 0 $4,998.92
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:10am ET $76,699.40 0 $5,400.21 $5,400.21 +$375.29
(+8.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 18, 2026 12:05am ET $77,109.80 0 $5,400.21
🔴 SELL Apr 19, 2026 6:05pm ET $73,915.20 0 $5,176.48 $5,176.48 $-250.17
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:40am ET $74,858.20 0 $5,176.48
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 11:40pm ET $80,928.30 0 $5,596.23 $5,596.23 +$392.82
(+8.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held
8 🟢 BUY May 6, 2026 4:10am ET $81,574.90 0 $5,596.23
🔴 SELL May 16, 2026 3:15am ET $78,208.30 0 $5,365.27 $5,365.27 $-258.36
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
9 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 7:40am ET $77,142.50 0 $5,365.27
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 11:20pm ET $73,607.20 0 $5,119.39 $5,119.39 $-272.09
(-4.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.7d held
10 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 6:10am ET $73,472.70 0 $5,119.39
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:00pm ET $70,525.90 0 $4,914.06 $4,914.06 $-230.41
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
11 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 12:15pm ET $67,975.80 0 $4,914.06
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 4:00pm ET $65,243.20 0 $4,716.52 $4,716.52 $-221.62
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
12 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 5:00pm ET $65,191.40 0 $4,716.52
🔴 SELL Jun 3, 2026 9:20pm ET $62,524.40 0 $4,523.56 $4,523.56 $-216.05
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
13 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $61,947.60 0 $4,523.56
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 2:50pm ET $59,167.30 0 $4,320.54 $4,320.54 $-225.13
(-4.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
14 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 10:05pm ET $61,947.60 0 $4,523.56
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 11:45am ET $66,926.30 0 $4,887.12 $4,684.10 +$340.03
(+8.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
11.6d held
15 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 4:30pm ET $66,612.80 0 $4,684.10
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 12:10am ET $63,939.50 0 $4,496.12 $4,496.12 $-210.93
(-4.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $4,496.12
Net Profit/Loss: $-5,503.88
Total Return: -55.04%
Back to Victor Volume