Compendium › Victor Volume › MRNA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MRNA
Alpaca Tradeable

Victor Volume's Analysis

Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 28 trades in period

+12.76%
Last 6 Months Return
$5,463.48
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$4,845.33
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:24:56

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45 neutral
20d Trend
-0.3%
5d Trend
-10.0%
EMA20 Dist
-6.7%
ATR%
7.8%
Range Pos
52%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 5.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-0.2%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,741
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$4,845.33
Current Value
$5,463.48
Period P&L
$618.11
Max Drawdown
-73.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.09

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
11 / 17
Best Trade
+9.49%
Worst Trade
-5.93%
Avg Trade Return
+0.59%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$341,265.17
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$618.11
Net P&L (after fees)
$618.11
Gross Return
+12.76%
Net Return (after fees)
+12.76%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MRNA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Victor Volume had $4,845.33 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 1:40pm ET $23.96 204 $4,886.82 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 1:15pm ET $25.92 204 $5,287.68 $5,300.30 +$400.86
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 1:35pm ET $26.60 199 $5,292.88 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 10:55am ET $25.53 199 $5,080.47 $5,087.89 $-212.41
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 3:50pm ET $24.70 205 $5,063.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $23.64 205 $4,846.20 $4,870.59 $-217.30
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 2:05pm ET $23.91 203 $4,853.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 28, 2025 12:50pm ET $25.87 203 $5,251.61 $5,268.47 +$397.88
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 2:45pm ET $24.33 216 $5,255.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 5, 2025 9:45am ET $26.40 216 $5,702.40 $5,715.59 +$447.12
(+8.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 8, 2025 2:55pm ET $27.64 206 $5,694.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 12, 2025 9:35am ET $29.87 206 $6,153.34 $6,174.15 +$458.56
(+8.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 15, 2025 12:55pm ET $29.66 208 $6,169.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 11:45am ET $32.04 208 $6,663.28 $6,668.15 +$494.00
(+8.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 3:40pm ET $33.69 197 $6,635.95 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 23, 2025 3:25pm ET $32.25 197 $6,352.27 $6,384.47 $-283.68
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
9 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 3:40pm ET $31.18 204 $6,360.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 11:05am ET $29.82 204 $6,083.28 $6,107.03 $-277.44
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 3:20pm ET $30.95 197 $6,097.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET $33.70 197 $6,638.90 $6,648.78 +$541.75
(+8.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 9:30am ET $34.74 191 $6,635.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:40am ET $33.28 191 $6,356.48 $6,369.92 $-278.86
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:40am ET $35.89 177 $6,351.65 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 12:30pm ET $38.76 177 $6,860.52 $6,878.79 +$508.88
(+8.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 3:05pm ET $40.53 169 $6,849.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET $44.38 169 $7,499.38 $7,528.93 +$650.14
(+9.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
14 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET $51.04 147 $7,502.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET $48.01 147 $7,057.47 $7,083.67 $-445.26
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:15pm ET $47.73 148 $7,064.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 2:40pm ET $45.72 148 $6,766.56 $6,785.95 $-297.72
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 3:30pm ET $44.90 151 $6,779.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $42.48 151 $6,414.48 $6,420.53 $-365.42
(-5.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET $43.74 146 $6,386.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 1:15pm ET $41.75 146 $6,095.50 $6,129.99 $-290.54
(-4.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 2:50pm ET $43.00 142 $6,106.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET $41.17 142 $5,846.14 $5,870.13 $-259.86
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
19 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 1:15pm ET $40.40 145 $5,858.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 10:05am ET $43.81 145 $6,351.73 $6,363.86 +$493.72
(+8.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 3:05pm ET $49.77 127 $6,320.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:55am ET $53.85 127 $6,839.58 $6,882.65 +$518.79
(+8.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 1:15pm ET $54.36 126 $6,849.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $51.40 126 $6,475.77 $6,508.96 $-373.69
(-5.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
22 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 2:30pm ET $52.99 122 $6,464.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 10:40am ET $50.76 122 $6,192.99 $6,237.17 $-271.79
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held
23 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 3:25pm ET $55.17 113 $6,234.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:55am ET $52.66 113 $5,950.58 $5,952.97 $-284.19
(-4.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
24 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 10:55am ET $52.96 112 $5,931.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 3:30pm ET $50.80 112 $5,689.60 $5,710.68 $-242.29
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
25 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET $53.07 107 $5,678.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 11:10am ET $50.84 107 $5,439.88 $5,472.26 $-238.42
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 2:15pm ET $49.40 110 $5,434.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $53.76 110 $5,913.60 $5,951.86 +$479.60
(+8.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $55.64 106 $5,897.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:25pm ET $53.23 106 $5,642.38 $5,696.40 $-255.46
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.9h held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 1:25pm ET $47.07 121 $5,695.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:40am ET $45.15 121 $5,462.55 $5,463.48 $-232.92
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,463.48
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,536.52
Total Return: -45.37%
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