Compendium › Wrecking Ball › TQQQ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
TQQQ
Alpaca Tradeable

Wrecking Ball's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 17 trades in period

+62.19%
Year to Date Return
$49,123.19
Current Value
76%
Win Rate
$30,287.55
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:25:40

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score PRO Scored May 5, 2026

78
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%
Score ≥ 70 + Momentum ≥ 40

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.5/25
Win Rate
9.1/15
Profit Factor
8.3/15
Consistency
7.9/10
Raw Quality 81.8/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 78.5

30-Day Momentum

54
+21.4%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
3
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 87.4 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,480
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$30,287.55
Current Value
$49,123.19
Period P&L
$18,835.64
Max Drawdown
-0.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.83

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
17
Winners / Losers
13 / 4
Best Trade
+8.18%
Worst Trade
-5.42%
Avg Trade Return
+2.95%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,303,129.43
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$18,835.64
Net P&L (after fees)
$18,835.64
Gross Return
+62.19%
Net Return (after fees)
+62.19%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 17 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Wrecking Ball had $30,287.55 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 10:55am ET $52.26 580 $30,287.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 3:55pm ET $55.01 580 $31,881.33 $31,881.33 +$1,593.78
(+5.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:25am ET $53.74 593 $31,881.33 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $54.14 593 $32,121.62 $32,121.62 +$240.29
(+0.8%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:10pm ET $50.83 632 $32,121.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $54.39 632 $34,372.89 $34,372.89 +$2,251.27
(+7.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 29, 2026 9:55am ET $55.19 623 $34,372.89 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $55.12 623 $34,329.29 $34,329.29 $-43.60
(-0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $48.63 706 $34,329.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $51.75 706 $36,529.23 $36,529.23 +$2,199.94
(+6.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 12, 2026 11:10am ET $49.32 741 $36,529.23 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 13, 2026 3:55pm ET $48.32 741 $35,790.80 $35,790.80 $-738.43
(-2.0%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $46.76 765 $35,790.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 3:55pm ET $48.72 765 $37,293.08 $37,293.08 +$1,502.28
(+4.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 10:15am ET $49.74 750 $37,293.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 3:55pm ET $49.80 750 $37,338.06 $37,338.06 +$44.98
(+0.1%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $46.80 798 $37,338.06 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 3:55pm ET $49.70 798 $39,651.50 $39,651.50 +$2,313.44
(+6.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:50am ET $47.60 833 $39,651.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $49.22 833 $41,007.21 $41,007.21 +$1,355.71
(+3.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET $47.49 863 $41,007.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 16, 2026 3:55pm ET $47.40 863 $40,925.19 $40,925.19 $-82.02
(-0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $44.75 915 $40,925.19 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.83 915 $40,998.44 $40,998.44 +$73.25
(+0.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $43.57 941 $40,998.44 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $41.21 941 $38,777.73 $38,777.73 $-2,220.71
(-5.4%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $40.00 969 $38,777.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 3:55pm ET $41.74 969 $40,464.56 $40,464.56 +$1,686.83
(+4.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $41.02 986 $40,464.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.01 986 $43,413.48 $43,413.48 +$2,948.92
(+7.3%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $57.88 750 $43,413.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 27, 2026 3:55pm ET $62.62 750 $46,964.93 $46,964.93 +$3,551.45
(+8.2%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 10:25am ET $60.76 773 $46,964.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET $63.55 773 $49,123.19 $49,123.19 +$2,158.26
(+4.6%) 		TIME_EXIT
0m held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $49,123.19
Net Profit/Loss: +$39,123.19
Total Return: +391.23%
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