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Luke Liquidation
24

Luke Liquidation

The Vulture

🦅 Crypto Native 📅 12 years old (Born 2014)

"Liquidations are a feature, not a bug. I trade the cascade."

Sharp eyes, always scanning. Vulture-like watchfulness. Keeps liquidation levels memorized.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

May 6, 2024 May 6, 2026 (730d)
⚠️ Crypto has 0.25% trading fees per side — results reflect fee impact

📊 2 Years Performance: We gave Luke Liquidation $10,000 and let her trade 12 crypto symbols from Jan 3, 2024 to today. 🟢 LIVE

$13,311
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $10,000 (+$3,311)
+33.11%
2-Year ROI
55.5%
Win Rate
216
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

+0.6%
1 Month
-4.6%
3 Months
-1.6%
6 Months
-2.3%
YTD
-3.0%
1 Year

Equity Curve (2 Years)

Combined P&L across all 12 symbols

💰 Trading Activity (2 Years)

Stock Volume
$0
0 trades
Stock Fees
$0
✓ Commission FREE
Crypto Volume
$3,919,766
216 trades
Crypto Fees
$9,799
0.25% of volume

⚠️ Important Note: This simulation tests each symbol with its own $10K account (not pooled). Crypto symbols can show 40-75%+ fee drag due to high trade frequency.

Stocks are FREE on Alpaca, so the ~100 stock symbols have zero fee impact.

⚙️ Trading Strategy

Buy after 10% dump with cascade liquidations

After a 10% dump with cascade liquidations, sellers are exhausted—they've been forced out. Luke buys the bounce, targeting 5%.

🎯 Best Suited For

Post-liquidation bounces

"One man's margin call is my entry signal."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Once the leveraged traders are gone, only unleveraged sellers remain—and they're not forced to sell.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/run-*-simulation.php

📊 Entry Signal (Post-Liquidation Bounce)

📈 Entry Signal (Post-Liquidation Bounce)

4h Price Drop ≥ 10% AND Volume ≥ 3× average
→ BUY - Leveraged sellers exhausted, bounce imminent

📉 Exit Conditions

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.97 (-3% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: 24 hours (quick bounce play)

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

DUMP_THRESHOLD_PCT: 10%
VOLUME_MULTIPLIER: 3
LOOKBACK_HOURS: 4
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: 3%
MAX_HOLD_HOURS: 24

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: Leveraged crypto liquidation cascades

By 2014, exchanges offered 10x, 50x, even 100x leverage. Liquidation cascades became a regular feature of crypto markets.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (2 Years)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 2 Years: May 6, 2024 May 6, 2026 (730 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 PEPEUSD 38 +212.23% $10,000 $31,223 50 40% $19,813 +$21,223 -49.0% 3.5h -
2 SHIBUSD 35 +141.37% $10,000 $24,137 21 62% $2,946 +$14,137 -19.9% 3.5h -
3 XRPUSD 32 +68.42% $10,000 $16,842 25 72% $2,206 +$6,842 -25.9% 4.6h -
4 DOTUSD 19 +15.11% $10,000 $11,511 18 61% $1,261 +$1,511 -12.0% 3.3h -
5 ETHUSD +11.19% $10,000 $11,119 6 50% $414 +$1,119 -13.6% 2.9h -
6 BTCUSD +5.90% $10,000 $10,590 1 100% $52 +$590 -0.0% 0.3h -
7 LINKUSD 6 +0.82% $10,000 $10,082 19 42% $1,435 +$82 -13.1% 3.7h -
8 AVAXUSD +0.48% $10,000 $10,048 15 53% $1,345 +$48 -33.1% 3.6h -
9 LTCUSD 7 -3.67% $10,000 $9,634 12 67% $805 -$367 -31.9% 5.0h -
10 SOLUSD 2 -4.87% $10,000 $9,513 9 33% $818 -$487 -22.9% 3.8h -
11 UNIUSD 8 -17.65% $10,000 $8,235 20 50% $1,436 -$1,765 -38.5% 4.2h -
12 DOGEUSD 2 -31.96% $10,000 $6,804 20 35% $1,181 -$3,196 -31.7% 5.6h -

👤 Personality

Opportunistic, patient, slightly predatory. Doesn't feel bad about profiting from others' margin calls.