Compendium › Danny Dip › BTCUSD
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
BTCUSD
Alpaca Tradeable

Danny Dip's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 6 trades in period

+9.75%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,979.78
Current Value
67%
Win Rate
$6,327.20
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:26:03

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.3 oversold
20d Trend
-26.5%
5d Trend
-29.8%
EMA20 Dist
-27.1%
ATR%
8.2%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 79%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
1.2/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 5.8/100
× Confidence 0.79 = 4.6

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (79%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
25,818
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Crypto: 0.15% maker / 0.25% taker (volume-tiered) • 24/7/365 trading

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,327.20
Current Value
$6,979.78
Period P&L
$616.60
Max Drawdown
-38.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.43

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
4 / 2
Best Trade
+5.73%
Worst Trade
-3.58%
Avg Trade Return
+1.67%
Avg Hold Time
20.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
₿ Crypto
Fee Rate
0.25% per trade
Total Volume
$79,737.87
Estimated Fees
$199.34
Gross P&L
$616.60
Net P&L (after fees)
$417.25
Gross Return
+9.75%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.59%

⚠️ Crypto: Alpaca charges 0.25% taker fee (or 0.15% maker). This simulation uses the conservative 0.25% estimate on all trades.
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 BTCUSD Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Danny Dip had $6,327.20 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 3:30pm ET $63,623.00 0 $6,473.79 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:05pm ET $61,345.00 0 $6,242.00 $6,210.21 $-263.58
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.6h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 7:10pm ET $60,285.00 0 $6,210.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 7:50pm ET $63,737.88 0 $6,565.91 $6,533.97 +$323.76
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
42m held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:05am ET $64,680.80 0 $6,533.97 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 9:35am ET $67,982.79 0 $6,867.53 $6,834.03 +$300.06
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
7.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 7, 2026 1:55am ET $68,749.00 0 $6,834.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 12:40am ET $69,280.40 0 $6,886.85 $6,852.55 +$18.52
(+0.8%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 22, 2026 8:10pm ET $65,480.00 0 $6,852.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 10:50pm ET $63,502.70 0 $6,645.62 $6,645.62 $-240.67
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 28, 2026 1:55am ET $63,403.80 0 $6,645.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 28, 2026 2:40pm ET $66,591.90 0 $6,979.78 $6,979.78 +$300.09
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,979.78
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,020.22
Total Return: -30.20%
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