Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 3: CAPITULATION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 07:54:30

Extreme fear + bounces appearing. Mean reversion and reversal strategies have best edge NOW.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-3.6%
5d Trend
+0.1%
EMA20 Dist
-1.1%
ATR%
3.7%
Range Pos
72%
Bounce Ratio
1.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

18
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.8/35
Total Return
10.7/25
Win Rate
1.0/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
4.7/10
Raw Quality 18.6/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 18.4

30-Day Momentum

6
+0.8%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
5
Trades
1.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.4 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,482
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-18
Trading Days
19 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$11,744.04
Current Value
$11,836.36
Period P&L
$92.31
Max Drawdown
-36.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
2 / 3
Best Trade
+5.26%
Worst Trade
-3.24%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
4.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$116,885.61
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$92.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$92.31
Gross Return
+0.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 LLY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 19 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,744.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 11:35am ET $1,060.73 11 $11,668.03
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:45am ET $1,114.23 11 $12,256.53 $12,332.55 +$588.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 9:45am ET $1,113.19 11 $12,245.09
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 10:20am ET $1,078.16 11 $11,859.71 $11,947.17 $-385.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 2, 2026 10:35am ET $1,063.93 11 $11,703.23
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:50am ET $1,119.92 11 $12,319.12 $12,563.06 +$615.89
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $1,150.60 10 $11,506.00
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:35am ET $1,113.34 10 $11,133.40 $12,190.46 $-372.60
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $1,127.43 10 $11,274.30
🔴 SELL Jun 18, 2026 10:50am ET $1,092.02 10 $10,920.20 $11,836.36 $-354.10
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,836.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,836.36
Total Return: +18.36%
Back to Marcus Reversal