Back to Compendium
Marcus Reversal
1

Marcus Reversal

The Contrarian

📉 Swing Trader 📅 48 years old (Born 1978)

"When the RSI screams oversold and the masses run for the exits, I walk in through the front door with my checkbook open."

Distinguished gentleman with silver-streaked hair and reading glasses perpetually perched on his nose. Wears tweed jackets with elbow patches. Always carries a worn copy of Wilder's original book, annotated in three colors of ink.

ℹ️ Character descriptions are creative personas representing trading strategy styles. They are not financial advice, promises, or guarantees of performance.

Mar 1, 2026 Apr 1, 2026 (30d)

📊 Last Month Performance: Showing Marcus Reversal's performance over the last month across 102 stock symbols. 🟢 LIVE

$13,550
Avg Value (per symbol)
Started at: $13,765 ($-216)
-1.57%
Last Month ROI
27.3%
Win Rate
514
Total Trades

Quick Performance Comparison

Click any period to view detailed stats

-1.6%
1 Month
+1.6%
3 Months
+2.1%
6 Months
+1.6%
YTD
+13.0%
1 Year

Equity Curve (Last Month)

Combined P&L across all 102 symbols

⚙️ Trading Strategy

RSI mean reversion - buys when RSI < 30, sells when RSI > 70

Uses the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to identify oversold conditions. When RSI drops below 30, indicating extreme fear, Marcus enters long positions. He exits when RSI rises above 70, indicating greed.

🎯 Best Suited For

Volatile stocks with strong fundamentals

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful."

📜 Why This Strategy Works

Markets are driven by human emotion. Fear creates oversold conditions—prices drop faster and further than fundamentals justify. Marcus waits for this fear to peak (RSI < 30), then buys what everyone else is panic-selling.

Mathematical Formula

CODE VERIFIED — These formulas are extracted directly from the simulation engine and verified against the source code.
Source: scripts/simulate-marcus.php

📊 Relative Strength Index (RSI)

RSI = 100 - (100 ÷ (1 + RS))
RS = Avg Gain ÷ Avg Loss (over 14 periods)
Avg Gain = SMA of gains, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
Avg Loss = SMA of losses, then smoothed: ((prev × 13) + current) ÷ 14
📁 calculateRSI() @ lines 404-448

📊 Hammer Candle Pattern

1 Lower wick ≥ 2× body size
2 Upper wick ≤ body size
3 Lower wick ≥ 60% of total range

📊 Entry Signal

📈 Entry Signal

RSI < 30 AND Hammer Candle = TRUE
→ BUY at next candle open

📉 Exit Rules

• TARGET: Price ≥ entry × 1.05 (+5% gain)
• STOP_LOSS: Price ≤ entry × 0.90 (-10% loss)
• MAX_HOLD: Hold time ≥ 30 days

⚙️ Simulation Parameters

RSI_PERIOD: 14
RSI_OVERSOLD: 30
TARGET_GAIN_PCT: 5%
STOP_LOSS_PCT: -10%
MAX_HOLD_DAYS: 30

📖 Historical Origin

Origin: J. Welles Wilder Jr.'s "New Concepts in Technical Trading Systems"

J. Welles Wilder Jr. was not a trader—he was a mechanical engineer who looked at markets and saw machines that could be measured. In 1978, he published his masterwork, introducing the RSI alongside a dozen other indicators that would become industry standards.

🏆 Top 10 Performing Symbols (Last Month)

📉 Worst 5 Performing Symbols (Last Month)

📊 All Symbol Results

Click on any row to see detailed trade history with equity curve

📅 Last Month: Mar 1, 2026 Apr 1, 2026 (30 days)
📖 Understanding Score & Momentum columns
📊 Score — Lifetime Quality Score
Measures how well this strategy+symbol combination has performed across the entire simulation history. Based on return, win rate, drawdown control, profit factor, and trade count. Higher is better.
75+ Elite   60+ Good   40+ Fair   <40 Weak
⚡ Mom — 30-Day Momentum Score
Measures performance over the last 30 days only. Same quality model but calibrated for short-term activity. Captures recent regime shifts that the lifetime score may miss.
75+ Hot   60+ Active   40+ Moderate   <40 Quiet
Spread Indicators — Comparing Mom vs Score reveals regime sensitivity:
🔥 Heating Up — Mom is 20+ points above Score. This symbol is performing significantly better recently than its lifetime average. Could indicate a favorable regime shift.
🧊 Cooling Off — Mom is 20+ points below Score. This symbol is underperforming recently despite a strong lifetime track record. Could indicate an unfavorable regime shift.
No icon = Steady — Scores within ±20 points. Consistent performance.
⚠️ Scores are calculated from simulated backtest data and are for informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or predict future performance. Full methodology →
Rank Symbol Score Mom Return 1M Start Final Value Trades Win Rate Fees Net Max DD Avg Hold Refunds Last Refund Action
1 OXY 41 70🔥 +32.90% $15,150 $20,135 6 83% - +$4,984 -28.6% 8.2d -
2 MRNA 5 84🔥 +32.31% $6,768 $8,954 10 70% - +$2,187 -73.8% 2.3d -
3 VXX 31 84🔥 +31.67% $13,671 $18,001 11 64% - +$4,330 -32.2% 2.9d -
4 SPXU 10 70🔥 +22.90% $8,425 $10,354 7 71% - +$1,929 -30.0% 5.6d -
5 UVXY 25 66🔥 +22.70% $13,208 $16,206 13 54% - +$2,998 -50.0% 1.6d -
6 XOM 35 64🔥 +22.31% $12,618 $15,433 5 80% - +$2,815 -18.5% 11.9d -
7 SQQQ 3 76🔥 +21.96% $5,442 $6,637 9 67% - +$1,195 -66.3% 2.8d -
8 CVX 43 63 +17.68% $14,147 $16,648 5 80% - +$2,501 -13.5% 13.2d -
9 PLTR 🔥 PRO 70 48🧊 +15.99% $47,087 $54,617 6 67% - +$7,529 -28.0% 2.8d -
10 RIVN 4 38🔥 +15.77% $4,471 $5,176 9 56% - +$705 -51.0% 2.2d -
11 SLV 🔥 PRO 74 43🧊 +15.76% $30,141 $34,891 7 57% - +$4,750 -21.6% 7.3d -
12 NET 43 36 +12.08% $20,357 $22,816 7 57% - +$2,459 -33.4% 4.1d -
13 COP 23 44🔥 +11.83% $11,545 $12,911 5 60% - +$1,366 -20.6% 9.4d -
14 NIO 4 35🔥 +11.78% $5,850 $6,539 8 50% - +$689 -51.1% 2.6d -
15 COIN 5 34🔥 +10.36% $8,111 $8,951 10 50% - +$840 -53.5% 1.8d -
16 USO 32 41 +10.36% $13,191 $14,557 11 45% - +$1,367 -18.0% 8.8d -
17 AMD 17 16 +7.88% $11,183 $12,064 8 50% - +$881 -43.0% 3.3d -
18 TSLA 21 3 +5.33% $12,443 $13,107 6 50% - +$663 -34.1% 2.9d -
19 XLE 19 32 +4.77% $10,932 $11,453 4 50% - +$521 -24.7% 12.5d -
20 ARKK 4 0 +4.29% $9,798 $10,219 4 50% - +$420 -26.4% 5.4d -
21 ORCL 17 18 +4.10% $11,327 $11,792 8 38% - +$464 -51.2% 5.2d -
22 BMY 5 16 +4.10% $9,600 $9,993 4 50% - +$394 -28.4% 7.9d -
23 NVDA 29 0🧊 +3.59% $16,614 $17,210 4 50% - +$596 -43.7% 3.8d -
24 CSCO 66 15🧊 +2.90% $21,578 $22,203 4 50% - +$626 -9.1% 15.2d -
25 DKNG 4 6 +2.58% $6,744 $6,918 9 44% - +$174 -50.2% 4.1d -
26 ABBV 23 12 +2.52% $12,248 $12,557 4 50% - +$309 -17.7% 11.9d -
27 VZ 21 +1.72% $11,906 $12,110 2 50% - +$205 -14.2% 14.1d -
28 SLB 30 12 +1.69% $14,557 $14,803 7 43% - +$246 -22.2% 8.1d -
29 PFE 6 +1.67% $9,235 $9,389 2 50% - +$154 -23.5% 10.8d -
30 NFLX 44 +1.61% $23,652 $24,032 2 50% - +$381 -32.4% 9.5d -
31 C 33 9🧊 +1.33% $16,534 $16,754 5 40% - +$220 -29.6% 8.3d -
32 GOOGL 41 1🧊 +1.06% $20,416 $20,633 5 40% - +$216 -25.2% 7.9d -
33 GS 47 1🧊 +0.83% $20,374 $20,543 5 40% - +$169 -15.7% 9.6d -
34 XLK 21 +0.48% $12,778 $12,839 3 33% - +$61 -25.5% 11.5d -
35 LCID 21 6 -0.29% $13,296 $13,257 8 38% - -$39 -38.4% 1.9d -
36 UNH 4 -0.85% $4,488 $4,450 3 33% - -$38 -54.0% 7.3d -
37 COST 29 -0.85% $14,920 $14,793 1 0% - -$127 -19.7% 13.0d -
38 BRK-B 24 0🧊 -1.02% $12,721 $12,591 3 33% - -$130 -15.7% 16.3d -
39 TMO 4 0 -1.07% $9,234 $9,135 3 33% - -$99 -28.6% 11.0d -
40 CRM 5 0 -1.08% $8,186 $8,098 3 33% - -$88 -48.1% 7.3d -
41 IBM 39 0🧊 -1.22% $17,680 $17,465 3 33% - -$216 -17.7% 10.0d -
42 ARM 28 7🧊 -1.74% $15,673 $15,400 9 33% - -$273 -31.3% 2.7d -
43 JNJ 35 -1.83% $15,122 $14,845 1 0% - -$277 -13.8% 16.3d -
44 AMC 3 3 -2.10% $4,274 $4,184 6 33% - -$90 -59.9% 2.4d -
45 PANW 21 2 -2.22% $12,350 $12,076 5 40% - -$274 -29.0% 7.1d -
46 AMZN 31 2🧊 -2.61% $16,047 $15,628 6 33% - -$419 -18.5% 8.3d -
47 MCD 18 -2.93% $11,410 $11,076 1 0% - -$334 -12.9% 16.0d -
48 V 17 -3.04% $11,743 $11,386 1 0% - -$357 -14.4% 14.2d -
49 WMT 39 -3.31% $18,102 $17,503 1 0% - -$599 -17.6% 14.4d -
50 AXP 24 -3.62% $14,037 $13,529 1 0% - -$508 -27.6% 10.6d -
51 INTC 4 7 -3.81% $8,185 $7,873 9 33% - -$312 -58.2% 3.6d -
52 JPM 34 -3.89% $17,653 $16,966 1 0% - -$687 -20.8% 10.9d -
53 GLD 71 0🧊 -3.95% $26,870 $25,808 3 33% - -$1,061 -6.1% 15.7d -
54 WFC 17 0 -4.10% $11,639 $11,162 3 33% - -$477 -25.5% 8.9d -
55 AVGO 18 2 -4.11% $12,918 $12,387 6 33% - -$531 -27.0% 3.7d -
56 MS 11 1 -4.12% $10,801 $10,356 4 25% - -$445 -29.2% 9.0d -
57 MRK 4 0 -4.25% $8,302 $7,949 3 33% - -$353 -45.0% 9.8d -
58 QQQ 25 -4.34% $13,084 $12,516 2 0% - -$568 -29.6% 15.7d -
59 ACN 3 1 -4.45% $4,996 $4,774 4 25% - -$222 -45.0% 9.3d -
60 GME 22 1🧊 -4.90% $14,484 $13,774 4 25% - -$710 -32.0% 2.9d -
61 BLK 26 1🧊 -5.06% $13,546 $12,861 4 25% - -$685 -17.2% 12.3d -
62 CRWD 40 3🧊 -5.26% $21,358 $20,235 6 33% - -$1,123 -24.8% 4.4d -
63 META 30 5🧊 -5.61% $16,689 $15,752 7 29% - -$936 -26.1% 6.9d -
64 ISRG 13 -5.77% $11,533 $10,867 2 0% - -$665 -35.0% 8.4d -
65 KO 29 -5.95% $13,879 $13,053 2 0% - -$826 -13.1% 18.7d -
66 VOO 28 -5.98% $13,545 $12,735 2 0% - -$810 -15.4% 18.9d -
67 SPY 31 -6.03% $13,845 $13,010 2 0% - -$835 -12.7% 18.7d -
68 PG 5 -6.05% $9,846 $9,250 2 0% - -$596 -24.4% 16.2d -
69 AMGN 10 -6.14% $11,037 $10,359 2 0% - -$678 -28.3% 11.3d -
70 VRTX 19 2 -6.19% $12,550 $11,773 5 20% - -$777 -25.6% 10.7d -
71 SCHW 40 -6.26% $16,839 $15,785 2 0% - -$1,054 -10.8% 11.7d -
72 BAC 20 -6.29% $13,192 $12,362 2 0% - -$830 -21.4% 9.5d -
73 VTI 31 -6.34% $13,796 $12,921 2 0% - -$875 -16.1% 20.8d -
74 AAPL 27 -6.42% $14,828 $13,876 2 0% - -$952 -21.5% 10.1d -
75 PYPL 6 -6.46% $9,685 $9,059 2 0% - -$626 -35.9% 7.8d -
76 PEP 4 -6.69% $9,830 $9,172 2 0% - -$658 -23.1% 16.8d -
77 TLT 4 -7.14% $7,575 $7,034 2 0% - -$541 -27.7% 20.2d -
78 BIIB 3 -7.22% $6,668 $6,186 2 0% - -$481 -46.7% 7.5d -
79 MA 23 0🧊 -8.54% $13,183 $12,057 3 0% - -$1,126 -11.3% 13.9d -
80 LLY 20 0 -8.73% $14,164 $12,928 4 25% - -$1,237 -36.7% 6.7d -
81 RBLX 21 9 -8.85% $13,890 $12,661 10 30% - -$1,229 -46.8% 3.9d -
82 GILD 24 0🧊 -8.89% $14,458 $13,173 3 0% - -$1,285 -20.9% 10.3d -
83 MSFT 25 0🧊 -8.94% $14,582 $13,278 3 0% - -$1,304 -21.2% 13.3d -
84 DIA 17 0 -8.98% $11,792 $10,733 3 0% - -$1,059 -20.7% 20.9d -
85 DIS 10 0 -9.21% $11,401 $10,351 3 0% - -$1,050 -24.9% 11.6d -
86 MDT 23 0🧊 -9.22% $13,770 $12,500 3 0% - -$1,270 -12.1% 13.7d -
87 XLF 30 0🧊 -9.31% $14,267 $12,938 3 0% - -$1,328 -11.5% 17.6d -
88 IWM 22 0🧊 -9.52% $13,662 $12,361 3 0% - -$1,301 -23.6% 13.7d -
89 REGN 5 2 -9.86% $8,408 $7,579 5 20% - -$829 -50.1% 7.6d -
90 SMCI 4 9 -9.89% $1,795 $1,618 11 27% - -$178 -88.9% 1.9d -
91 HOOD 5 7 -10.95% $11,046 $9,836 9 22% - -$1,210 -45.6% 2.2d -
92 HD 5 1 -12.72% $10,404 $9,081 4 0% - -$1,323 -19.9% 12.1d -
93 CMCSA 5 0 -14.93% $7,473 $6,357 4 0% - -$1,116 -36.1% 11.9d -
94 PM 24 1🧊 -15.51% $14,988 $12,663 5 0% - -$2,325 -21.9% 12.3d -
95 SNOW 25 5🧊 -16.84% $18,039 $15,001 7 14% - -$3,038 -43.4% 4.9d -
96 SOFI 23 6 -17.46% $16,211 $13,381 8 13% - -$2,830 -35.6% 2.7d -
97 TQQQ 6 9 -17.74% $10,369 $8,529 11 18% - -$1,839 -40.9% 3.1d -
98 ADBE 3 2 -18.69% $6,829 $5,553 5 20% - -$1,276 -42.0% 8.2d -
99 RIOT 4 9 -19.19% $7,475 $6,041 11 18% - -$1,434 -51.3% 1.3d -
100 MARA 4 9 -24.09% $6,084 $4,618 12 17% - -$1,466 -58.2% 1.3d -
101 MU 59 9🧊 -27.82% $46,320 $33,434 12 17% - -$12,886 -27.8% 3.5d -
102 SOXL 63 10🧊 -32.13% $62,903 $42,693 13 15% - -$20,211 -36.3% 1.6d -

👤 Personality

Calm, patient, slightly smug. Speaks in measured tones. Has seen every crash since his birth in 1978 and survived them all. Drinks single malt scotch. Never raises his voice, even when markets are in freefall.