XLE Marcus Reversal's Analysis
2024-01-02 18:55:00+00 to 2026-05-05 19:55:00+00 • 63 trades executed
-0.94%
2 Years Return
$10,438.82
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$10,538.28
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
70 neutral
20d Trend
+11.0%
5d Trend
+2.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.4%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
76%
Bounce Ratio
3.3×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
12
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.6/35
Total Return
6.1/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.2/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality
13.1/100
× Confidence 0.90
= 11.7
30-Day Momentum
2
-8.9%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9
Conf: 0.70×
Cooling (-10 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles Used
59,385
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Date Range
2024-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
532 days
Data Gaps
None (21 market holidays)
Market Closed (21 days)
2024-05-27 — Memorial Day, 2024-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2024-07-04 — Independence Day, 2024-09-02 — Labor Day, 2024-11-28 — Thanksgiving, 2024-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2025-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2025-01-09 — National Day of Mourning (Carter), 2025-01-20 — MLK Jr. Day, 2025-02-17 — Presidents' Day, 2025-04-18 — Good Friday, 2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day ... and 1 more
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary
Starting Capital
$10,538.28
Current Value
$10,438.82
Total P&L
$-99.49
Max Drawdown
-24.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics
Total Trades
55
Winners / Losers
22 /
33
Best Trade
+7.58%
Worst Trade
-4.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.07%
Avg Hold Time
11.3d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,082,124.55
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-99.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$-99.49
Gross Return
-0.94%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.94%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 XLE Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 532 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Complete Trade History
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,538.28 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 6, 2024 1:15pm ET | $46.71 | 225 | $10,509.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 29, 2024 11:55am ET | $45.31 | 225 | $10,193.63 | $10,222.69 |
$-315.59 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 30, 2024 12:25pm ET | $45.34 | 225 | $10,200.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 14, 2024 10:05am ET | $43.95 | 225 | $9,887.63 | $9,909.94 |
$-312.75 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 17, 2024 3:40pm ET | $44.19 | 224 | $9,897.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $46.69 | 224 | $10,458.56 | $10,471.06 |
+$561.12 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
29.7d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2024 1:10pm ET | $47.03 | 222 | $10,440.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 23, 2024 9:35am ET | $45.61 | 222 | $10,125.42 | $10,156.09 |
$-314.97 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2024 9:35am ET | $45.07 | 225 | $10,139.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 5, 2024 9:30am ET | $42.86 | 225 | $9,643.50 | $9,659.96 |
$-496.13 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
11d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 6, 2024 3:45pm ET | $43.72 | 220 | $9,617.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 19, 2024 10:35am ET | $45.90 | 220 | $10,098.55 | $10,141.21 |
+$481.25 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 20, 2024 10:35am ET | $44.83 | 226 | $10,132.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 6, 2024 10:25am ET | $43.47 | 226 | $9,824.22 | $9,833.29 |
$-307.93 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2024 1:40pm ET | $43.49 | 226 | $9,828.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 11, 2024 9:45am ET | $42.05 | 226 | $9,502.17 | $9,506.72 |
$-326.57 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 12, 2024 12:30pm ET | $42.45 | 223 | $9,466.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 19, 2024 10:05am ET | $44.58 | 223 | $9,940.23 | $9,980.59 |
+$473.88 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 20, 2024 10:05am ET | $43.95 | 227 | $9,977.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2024 3:30pm ET | $42.63 | 227 | $9,675.99 | $9,679.37 |
$-301.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2024 11:55am ET | $43.66 | 221 | $9,648.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 3, 2024 10:10am ET | $45.85 | 221 | $10,132.85 | $10,163.31 |
+$483.95 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 4, 2024 2:20pm ET | $46.41 | 219 | $10,162.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 15, 2024 9:50am ET | $44.99 | 219 | $9,852.81 | $9,853.43 |
$-309.89 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 16, 2024 3:55pm ET | $45.10 | 218 | $9,831.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2024 1:00pm ET | $47.36 | 218 | $10,325.03 | $10,346.65 |
+$493.22 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
27.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 15, 2024 10:55am ET | $47.57 | 217 | $10,322.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2024 12:00pm ET | $46.10 | 217 | $10,002.62 | $10,026.58 |
$-320.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2024 2:45pm ET | $46.46 | 215 | $9,988.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2024 11:05am ET | $45.05 | 215 | $9,684.68 | $9,722.35 |
$-304.23 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2024 2:30pm ET | $44.91 | 216 | $9,699.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2024 9:30am ET | $43.16 | 216 | $9,321.48 | $9,344.35 |
$-378.00 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2024 1:25pm ET | $43.11 | 216 | $9,310.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2024 11:50am ET | $41.78 | 216 | $9,023.40 | $9,057.07 |
$-287.28 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 20, 2024 2:05pm ET | $41.97 | 215 | $9,022.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.07 | 215 | $9,473.98 | $9,508.57 |
+$451.50 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.8d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2025 2:55pm ET | $44.08 | 215 | $9,477.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2025 2:05pm ET | $46.29 | 215 | $9,952.35 | $9,983.83 |
+$475.26 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2025 9:40am ET | $46.65 | 214 | $9,982.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.21 | 214 | $9,675.54 | $9,677.34 |
$-306.49 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2025 10:45am ET | $44.87 | 215 | $9,647.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.50 | 215 | $9,351.43 | $9,381.71 |
$-295.63 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.00 | 213 | $9,372.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 19, 2025 9:40am ET | $46.20 | 213 | $9,841.64 | $9,851.36 |
+$469.64 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
15d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 21, 2025 9:50am ET | $46.05 | 213 | $9,809.18 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2025 11:00am ET | $44.65 | 213 | $9,510.45 | $9,552.62 |
$-298.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2025 12:30pm ET | $44.57 | 214 | $9,537.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 4, 2025 9:30am ET | $43.21 | 214 | $9,246.94 | $9,261.58 |
$-291.04 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.92 | 215 | $9,226.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.20 | 215 | $9,716.93 | $9,751.78 |
+$490.20 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2025 12:00pm ET | $45.46 | 214 | $9,728.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 3, 2025 10:55am ET | $44.07 | 214 | $9,429.91 | $9,453.25 |
$-298.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 4, 2025 12:20pm ET | $40.02 | 236 | $9,443.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2025 9:30am ET | $38.14 | 236 | $8,999.86 | $9,009.57 |
$-443.68 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2025 11:10am ET | $39.31 | 229 | $9,001.99 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2025 3:15pm ET | $38.04 | 229 | $8,710.02 | $8,717.60 |
$-291.98 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $39.49 | 220 | $8,686.70 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2025 12:10pm ET | $38.25 | 220 | $8,413.90 | $8,444.80 |
$-272.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2025 10:40am ET | $39.76 | 212 | $8,429.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $42.78 | 212 | $9,068.30 | $9,083.98 |
+$639.18 (+7.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | May 13, 2025 3:55pm ET | $42.88 | 211 | $9,046.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 21, 2025 9:30am ET | $41.52 | 211 | $8,760.19 | $8,797.55 |
$-286.43 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.7d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | May 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $40.45 | 217 | $8,778.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 10, 2025 10:00am ET | $42.52 | 217 | $9,225.76 | $9,245.11 |
+$447.56 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 12, 2025 2:20pm ET | $43.11 | 214 | $9,226.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.39 | 214 | $9,499.46 | $9,518.49 |
+$273.39 (+3.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 15, 2025 9:45am ET | $43.85 | 217 | $9,514.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 21, 2025 3:40pm ET | $42.49 | 217 | $9,220.33 | $9,224.46 |
$-294.03 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.2d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 25, 2025 9:50am ET | $43.47 | 212 | $9,216.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 11, 2025 10:40am ET | $42.12 | 212 | $8,929.46 | $8,937.75 |
$-286.71 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 12, 2025 12:25pm ET | $42.41 | 210 | $8,906.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 27, 2025 9:40am ET | $44.56 | 210 | $9,356.55 | $9,388.20 |
+$450.45 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 28, 2025 9:40am ET | $44.43 | 211 | $9,374.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 29, 2025 9:30am ET | $45.57 | 211 | $9,615.80 | $9,629.80 |
+$241.59 (+2.6%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 30, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.68 | 215 | $9,605.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:00am ET | $43.32 | 215 | $9,312.73 | $9,337.40 |
$-292.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10.1d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 2:55pm ET | $42.98 | 217 | $9,326.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 2:05pm ET | $45.13 | 217 | $9,793.75 | $9,804.49 |
+$467.09 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
28d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 2:25pm ET | $45.93 | 213 | $9,783.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $44.55 | 213 | $9,489.15 | $9,510.02 |
$-294.47 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 11:30am ET | $45.25 | 210 | $9,501.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 16, 2025 12:40pm ET | $43.89 | 210 | $9,215.85 | $9,224.42 |
$-285.60 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
26.1d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 11:05am ET | $44.41 | 207 | $9,192.87 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $47.09 | 207 | $9,746.60 | $9,778.14 |
+$553.73 (+6.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
17.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:35am ET | $46.65 | 209 | $9,749.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:25pm ET | $45.17 | 209 | $9,439.49 | $9,467.78 |
$-310.37 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET | $46.40 | 204 | $9,465.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $48.76 | 204 | $9,946.02 | $9,948.20 |
+$480.42 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
9d held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 10:45am ET | $49.42 | 201 | $9,932.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $52.42 | 201 | $10,536.42 | $10,552.20 |
+$604.00 (+6.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $51.83 | 203 | $10,521.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $53.70 | 203 | $10,901.10 | $10,931.81 |
+$379.61 (+3.6%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4.3d held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET | $54.13 | 201 | $10,880.13 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $57.61 | 201 | $11,579.61 | $11,631.29 |
+$699.48 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET | $56.33 | 206 | $11,602.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.26 | 206 | $12,206.53 | $12,234.87 |
+$603.58 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16d held |
|
| 49 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 1:25pm ET | $60.03 | 203 | $12,186.09 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.02 | 203 | $11,778.06 | $11,826.84 |
$-408.03 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 50 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:00pm ET | $61.11 | 193 | $11,794.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 10:05am ET | $59.17 | 193 | $11,420.77 | $11,453.38 |
$-373.46 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held |
|
| 51 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $59.51 | 192 | $11,426.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.80 | 192 | $10,905.60 | $10,932.10 |
$-521.28 (-4.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held |
|
| 52 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:10am ET | $58.59 | 186 | $10,897.74 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 10:20am ET | $56.68 | 186 | $10,542.48 | $10,576.84 |
$-355.26 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.2h held |
|
| 53 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $57.10 | 185 | $10,564.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET | $55.39 | 185 | $10,247.15 | $10,259.56 |
$-317.28 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 54 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:55pm ET | $56.47 | 181 | $10,220.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.39 | 181 | $9,844.95 | $9,884.35 |
$-375.21 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.6h held |
|
| 55 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:05pm ET | $55.40 | 178 | $9,860.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $58.51 | 178 | $10,414.78 | $10,438.82 |
+$554.47 (+5.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$10,438.82
Net Profit/Loss:
+$438.82
Total Return:
+4.39%