Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-05-24 to present • 5 trades in period

-7.38%
Last Month Return
$14,123.43
Current Value
20%
Win Rate
$15,248.77
Period Start
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PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:09:12

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 91%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.8/35
Total Return
13.5/25
Win Rate
2.3/15
Profit Factor
1.8/15
Consistency
6.3/10
Raw Quality 30.8/100
× Confidence 0.91 = 28.1

30-Day Momentum

2
-6.7%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-26 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (91%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,638
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-26 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
21 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$15,248.77
Current Value
$14,123.43
Period P&L
$-1,125.36
Max Drawdown
-21.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.35

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+6.33%
Worst Trade
-3.62%
Avg Trade Return
-1.33%
Avg Hold Time
8.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$149,876.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,125.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,125.36
Gross Return
-7.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-7.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 21 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,248.77 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 1, 2026 12:55pm ET $413.32 36 $14,879.34 — — —
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:35am ET $439.48 36 $15,821.28 $16,080.39 +$941.94
(+6.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
27.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 1:40pm ET $458.79 35 $16,057.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 2, 2026 9:55am ET $444.92 35 $15,572.20 $15,595.12 $-485.27
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 9:55am ET $431.89 36 $15,547.86 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:35pm ET $418.79 36 $15,076.44 $15,123.70 $-471.42
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $409.36 36 $14,736.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 9:30am ET $394.54 36 $14,203.44 $14,590.18 $-533.52
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 10:30am ET $384.43 37 $14,223.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 22, 2026 10:55am ET $371.82 37 $13,757.16 $14,123.43 $-466.75
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
10d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,123.43
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,123.43
Total Return: +41.23%
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