Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MSFT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MSFT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Month: 2026-04-06 to present • 4 trades in period

+10.49%
Last Month Return
$15,138.45
Current Value
75%
Win Rate
$13,700.69
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:02:05

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
22.7 oversold
20d Trend
-16.1%
5d Trend
-8.1%
EMA20 Dist
-9.8%
ATR%
3.8%
Range Pos
2%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

31
Lifetime
Confidence: 89%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
8.5/35
Total Return
14.3/25
Win Rate
3.1/15
Profit Factor
2.5/15
Consistency
6.4/10
Raw Quality 34.8/100
× Confidence 0.89 = 31.0

30-Day Momentum

52
+14.0%
30d Return
75%
Win Rate
4
Trades
2.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 78.2 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+21 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (89%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,735
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-04-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
23 days
Data Gaps
None detected
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$13,700.69
Current Value
$15,138.45
Period P&L
$1,437.74
Max Drawdown
-21.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.86

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
4
Winners / Losers
3 / 1
Best Trade
+6.59%
Worst Trade
-3.40%
Avg Trade Return
+3.46%
Avg Hold Time
6.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$116,366.73
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,437.74
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,437.74
Gross Return
+10.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+10.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MSFT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 23 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 4 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,700.69 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 12:45pm ET $360.89 36 $12,992.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $384.69 36 $13,848.84 $14,135.23 +$856.80
(+6.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET $367.11 38 $13,950.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $387.63 38 $14,729.94 $14,915.10 +$779.87
(+5.6%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
3 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 3:40pm ET $411.71 36 $14,821.56 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 11:40am ET $432.56 36 $15,572.16 $15,665.70 +$750.60
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:05pm ET $418.64 37 $15,489.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:55am ET $404.39 37 $14,962.43 $15,138.45 $-527.25
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,138.45
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,138.45
Total Return: +51.38%
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