Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-22 15:32:55

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
20
Extreme Fear
VIX
18.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.49%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.27%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.63
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 1.0
Quiet
RSI(14)
38.5 neutral
20d Trend
-12.5%
5d Trend
-40.4%
EMA20 Dist
-22.1%
ATR%
14.8%
Range Pos
32%
Bounce Ratio
0.3×
Green/Red 10d
6/4

Strategy Score Scored Jun 22, 2026

69
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
34.5/35
Total Return
19.4/25
Win Rate
4.8/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 69.7/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 68.8

30-Day Momentum

2
-11.0%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-67 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Month)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
1,555
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-05-22 → 2026-06-22
Trading Days
20 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Month)

Period Start Capital
$35,327.47
Current Value
$31,261.68
Period P&L
$-4,065.77
Max Drawdown
-21.6%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.59

Trade Statistics (Last Month)

Trades in Period
5
Winners / Losers
1 / 4
Best Trade
+5.13%
Worst Trade
-5.80%
Avg Trade Return
-2.24%
Avg Hold Time
3.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Month)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$324,686.36
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-4,065.77
Net P&L (after fees)
$-4,065.77
Gross Return
-11.51%
Net Return (after fees)
-11.51%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SLV Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 20 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Month - 5 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $35,327.47 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY May 20, 2026 12:25pm ET $68.42 513 $35,099.97
🔴 SELL May 28, 2026 9:40am ET $66.25 513 $33,988.81 $34,013.35 $-1,111.16
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
2 🟢 BUY May 29, 2026 10:15am ET $68.05 499 $33,956.95
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $64.10 499 $31,985.90 $32,042.30 $-1,971.05
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 3:15pm ET $61.62 519 $31,980.78
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:45am ET $59.32 519 $30,785.73 $30,847.25 $-1,195.05
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 10:50am ET $58.62 526 $30,834.12
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2026 1:50pm ET $61.63 526 $32,414.75 $32,427.88 +$1,580.63
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 1:20pm ET $63.16 513 $32,402.77
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:30pm ET $60.89 513 $31,236.57 $31,261.68 $-1,166.20
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $31,261.68
Net Profit/Loss: +$21,261.68
Total Return: +212.62%
Back to Marcus Reversal