Compendium › Marcus Reversal › DIS
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
DIS
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 23 trades in period

+6.84%
Last Year Return
$11,071.10
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$10,362.59
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:34

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.5 neutral
20d Trend
-7.1%
5d Trend
-7.2%
EMA20 Dist
-4.1%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

15
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
1.5/35
Total Return
8.9/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.5/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 16.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 14.7

30-Day Momentum

30
+7.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 49.1 Conf: 0.61×
Accelerating (+15 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
26,716
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
265 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$10,362.59
Current Value
$11,071.10
Period P&L
$708.49
Max Drawdown
-24.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.11

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
11 / 12
Best Trade
+12.02%
Worst Trade
-4.30%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
13.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$524,656.25
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$708.49
Net P&L (after fees)
$708.49
Gross Return
+6.84%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.84%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 DIS Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 265 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $10,362.59 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2025 2:05pm ET $89.70 112 $10,046.40 — — —
🔴 SELL May 7, 2025 9:30am ET $100.48 112 $11,253.76 $11,329.16 +$1,207.36
(+12.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held
2 🟢 BUY May 8, 2025 3:50pm ET $105.18 107 $11,254.26 — — —
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 11:30am ET $110.51 107 $11,824.04 $11,898.94 +$569.77
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held
3 🟢 BUY May 13, 2025 11:45am ET $111.03 107 $11,879.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Jun 10, 2025 9:45am ET $116.68 107 $12,484.76 $12,504.02 +$605.09
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
27.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2025 11:25am ET $118.58 105 $12,450.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Jul 14, 2025 9:30am ET $119.74 105 $12,572.70 $12,626.35 +$122.32
(+1.0%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
31.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Jul 15, 2025 9:30am ET $119.37 105 $12,533.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 1, 2025 9:55am ET $115.77 105 $12,155.85 $12,248.35 $-378.00
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
6 🟢 BUY Aug 4, 2025 2:05pm ET $118.69 103 $12,225.07 — — —
🔴 SELL Aug 6, 2025 9:30am ET $113.59 103 $11,699.80 $11,723.08 $-525.27
(-4.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
7 🟢 BUY Aug 7, 2025 10:40am ET $114.19 102 $11,646.87 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET $117.51 102 $11,986.02 $12,062.23 +$339.15
(+2.9%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
32d held
8 🟢 BUY Sep 9, 2025 10:35am ET $118.21 102 $12,057.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Sep 10, 2025 11:05am ET $114.53 102 $11,682.06 $11,686.87 $-375.36
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
9 🟢 BUY Sep 11, 2025 11:05am ET $114.67 101 $11,581.67 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 2, 2025 10:30am ET $111.13 101 $11,224.15 $11,329.35 $-357.52
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21d held
10 🟢 BUY Oct 3, 2025 1:15pm ET $113.08 100 $11,308.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 3:25pm ET $109.68 100 $10,968.00 $10,989.33 $-340.02
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 2:45pm ET $111.17 98 $10,894.17 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 12, 2025 1:40pm ET $116.74 98 $11,440.52 $11,535.68 +$546.35
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
29d held
12 🟢 BUY Nov 13, 2025 2:50pm ET $106.94 107 $11,442.58 — — —
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 12:15pm ET $103.51 107 $11,075.57 $11,168.67 $-367.01
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 1:30pm ET $104.04 107 $11,132.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Dec 10, 2025 3:00pm ET $109.42 107 $11,707.94 $11,744.33 +$575.66
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 11:10am ET $112.08 104 $11,656.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $113.78 104 $11,832.60 $11,920.61 +$176.28
(+1.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $112.38 106 $11,911.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $109.00 106 $11,554.01 $11,562.87 $-357.74
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
16 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 11:45am ET $113.43 101 $11,455.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 28, 2026 11:05am ET $109.99 101 $11,108.49 $11,215.43 $-347.44
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
17 🟢 BUY Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $105.05 106 $11,135.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $106.80 106 $11,320.80 $11,400.93 +$185.50
(+1.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
7.3d held
18 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $104.66 108 $11,303.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $100.93 108 $10,900.44 $10,998.09 $-402.84
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $99.99 109 $10,898.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:50am ET $96.99 109 $10,571.91 $10,671.09 $-327.00
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
15.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:30am ET $95.11 112 $10,652.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:25pm ET $92.26 112 $10,332.57 $10,351.34 $-319.75
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held
21 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:50pm ET $94.14 109 $10,261.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $98.87 109 $10,776.83 $10,866.91 +$515.57
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 11:05am ET $99.24 109 $10,817.16 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:40pm ET $104.23 109 $11,361.08 $11,410.83 +$543.92
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 2:20pm ET $106.68 106 $11,308.61 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:10pm ET $103.48 106 $10,968.88 $11,071.10 $-339.73
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $11,071.10
Net Profit/Loss: +$1,071.10
Total Return: +10.71%
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