Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:04:39

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-2.6%
5d Trend
-2.0%
EMA20 Dist
-1.7%
ATR%
1.1%
Range Pos
54%
Bounce Ratio
0.7×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

37
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.7/35
Total Return
13.9/25
Win Rate
7.0/15
Profit Factor
5.0/15
Consistency
7.0/10
Raw Quality 45.6/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 37.1

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last Year)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
40,714
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
266 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)

Market Closed (10 days)

2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last Year)

Period Start Capital
$11,629.93
Current Value
$14,611.09
Period P&L
$2,981.16
Max Drawdown
-12.7%
Sharpe Ratio
0.50

Trade Statistics (Last Year)

Trades in Period
16
Winners / Losers
11 / 5
Best Trade
+7.18%
Worst Trade
-3.20%
Avg Trade Return
+1.69%
Avg Hold Time
20.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$415,346.14
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,981.16
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,981.16
Gross Return
+25.63%
Net Return (after fees)
+25.63%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPY Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 266 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last Year - 16 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,629.93 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2025 9:30am ET $546.45 20 $10,928.90
🔴 SELL May 12, 2025 9:30am ET $579.23 20 $11,584.60 $12,011.72 +$655.70
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
12d held
2 🟢 BUY May 13, 2025 2:40pm ET $587.66 20 $11,753.20
🔴 SELL Jun 12, 2025 2:40pm ET $602.79 20 $12,055.70 $12,314.22 +$302.50
(+2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
3 🟢 BUY Jun 13, 2025 2:40pm ET $596.18 20 $11,923.60
🔴 SELL Jul 3, 2025 11:40am ET $626.04 20 $12,520.80 $12,911.42 +$597.20
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
19.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jul 8, 2025 1:35pm ET $620.39 20 $12,407.80
🔴 SELL Aug 7, 2025 1:35pm ET $630.27 20 $12,605.30 $13,108.92 +$197.50
(+1.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
5 🟢 BUY Aug 8, 2025 3:40pm ET $636.41 20 $12,728.20
🔴 SELL Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET $648.66 20 $12,973.20 $13,353.92 +$245.00
(+1.9%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30.7d held
6 🟢 BUY Sep 10, 2025 11:10am ET $653.11 20 $13,062.20
🔴 SELL Oct 10, 2025 11:10am ET $667.73 20 $13,354.60 $13,646.32 +$292.40
(+2.2%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
7 🟢 BUY Oct 14, 2025 9:30am ET $655.93 20 $13,118.61
🔴 SELL Oct 29, 2025 9:30am ET $688.83 20 $13,776.60 $14,304.31 +$657.99
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
8 🟢 BUY Oct 30, 2025 2:35pm ET $682.40 20 $13,647.90
🔴 SELL Nov 7, 2025 12:00pm ET $661.63 20 $13,232.60 $13,889.01 $-415.30
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:50am ET $679.92 20 $13,598.40
🔴 SELL Nov 18, 2025 9:55am ET $658.65 20 $13,173.00 $13,463.61 $-425.40
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
10 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 11:05am ET $662.42 20 $13,248.40
🔴 SELL Dec 19, 2025 11:05am ET $679.72 20 $13,594.40 $13,809.61 +$346.00
(+2.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
11 🟢 BUY Dec 22, 2025 2:00pm ET $684.38 20 $13,687.60
🔴 SELL Jan 21, 2026 2:00pm ET $680.53 20 $13,610.60 $13,732.61 $-77.00
(-0.6%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
12 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 2:55pm ET $688.77 19 $13,086.63
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $694.70 19 $13,199.30 $13,845.29 +$112.67
(+0.9%)
📅 Sim Ended
18d held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $677.43 20 $13,548.60
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $655.74 20 $13,114.80 $13,411.49 $-433.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
29.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $654.92 20 $13,098.50
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 3:05pm ET $634.85 20 $12,697.00 $13,009.99 $-401.50
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:05pm ET $631.34 20 $12,626.80
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $676.68 20 $13,533.70 $13,916.89 +$906.90
(+7.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 2:45pm ET $679.01 20 $13,580.20
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 11:45am ET $713.72 20 $14,274.40 $14,611.09 +$694.20
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,611.09
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,611.09
Total Return: +46.11%
Back to Marcus Reversal