USO Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last Year: 2025-05-06 to present • 48 trades in period
+25.39%
Last Year Return
$13,811.73
Current Value
48%
Win Rate
$11,015.04
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
55.8 neutral
20d Trend
+3.7%
5d Trend
-4.0%
EMA20 Dist
+1.4%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
71%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
9/1
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026
29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.4/35
Total Return
13.2/25
Win Rate
2.2/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
29.5/100
× Confidence 0.98
= 29.0
30-Day Momentum
12
-5.1%
30d Return
56%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 14.4
Conf: 0.84×
Declining (-17 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last Year)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
33,414
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-05-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
264 days
Data Gaps
None (10 market holidays)
Market Closed (10 days)
2025-05-26 — Memorial Day, 2025-06-19 — Juneteenth, 2025-07-04 — Independence Day, 2025-09-01 — Labor Day, 2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last Year)
Period Start Capital
$11,015.04
Current Value
$13,811.73
Period P&L
$2,796.67
Max Drawdown
-18.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12
Trade Statistics (Last Year)
Trades in Period
48
Winners / Losers
23 /
25
Best Trade
+8.81%
Worst Trade
-15.03%
Avg Trade Return
+0.62%
Avg Hold Time
5.7d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last Year)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,245,291.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,796.67
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,796.67
Gross Return
+25.39%
Net Return (after fees)
+25.39%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 USO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 264 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last Year - 48 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $11,015.04 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | May 1, 2025 12:30pm ET | $63.42 | 172 | $10,907.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 9, 2025 1:00pm ET | $66.65 | 172 | $11,463.80 | $11,500.09 |
+$556.42 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | May 12, 2025 2:00pm ET | $67.98 | 169 | $11,488.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 6, 2025 11:50am ET | $71.39 | 169 | $12,064.91 | $12,076.38 |
+$576.29 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
24.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 9, 2025 12:15pm ET | $71.56 | 168 | $12,022.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 11, 2025 2:25pm ET | $75.16 | 168 | $12,626.88 | $12,681.18 |
+$604.80 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 13, 2025 11:35am ET | $79.20 | 160 | $12,672.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 16, 2025 10:25am ET | $76.77 | 160 | $12,283.20 | $12,292.38 |
$-388.80 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 18, 2025 10:40am ET | $80.87 | 152 | $12,292.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jun 23, 2025 1:40pm ET | $78.19 | 152 | $11,884.88 | $11,885.02 |
$-407.36 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jun 25, 2025 1:35pm ET | $73.50 | 161 | $11,833.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 8, 2025 12:40pm ET | $77.28 | 161 | $12,442.08 | $12,493.60 |
+$608.58 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
13d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 9, 2025 2:10pm ET | $77.02 | 162 | $12,477.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $74.43 | 162 | $12,056.85 | $12,073.21 |
$-420.39 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 18, 2025 11:15am ET | $76.05 | 158 | $12,015.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jul 29, 2025 2:35pm ET | $79.91 | 158 | $12,624.99 | $12,682.30 |
+$609.09 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Jul 30, 2025 2:35pm ET | $80.57 | 157 | $12,649.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 1, 2025 10:05am ET | $77.87 | 157 | $12,224.81 | $12,257.62 |
$-424.69 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 4, 2025 10:05am ET | $75.82 | 161 | $12,207.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Aug 6, 2025 3:00pm ET | $73.48 | 161 | $11,830.26 | $11,880.86 |
$-376.76 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Aug 7, 2025 3:00pm ET | $73.53 | 161 | $11,838.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 8, 2025 9:30am ET | $73.51 | 161 | $11,835.11 | $11,877.64 |
$-3.22 (-0.0%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 9, 2025 11:55am ET | $73.73 | 161 | $11,870.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Sep 26, 2025 10:00am ET | $77.51 | 161 | $12,479.11 | $12,486.22 |
+$608.58 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Sep 29, 2025 10:00am ET | $75.18 | 166 | $12,479.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 1, 2025 9:30am ET | $72.65 | 166 | $12,059.90 | $12,066.24 |
$-419.98 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 2, 2025 9:30am ET | $72.23 | 167 | $12,062.41 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 10, 2025 11:20am ET | $70.05 | 167 | $11,698.35 | $11,702.18 |
$-364.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.1d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 13, 2025 2:25pm ET | $70.22 | 166 | $11,656.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 16, 2025 12:45pm ET | $68.03 | 166 | $11,292.96 | $11,338.62 |
$-363.56 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 17, 2025 1:20pm ET | $67.69 | 167 | $11,304.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 23, 2025 9:30am ET | $73.10 | 167 | $12,207.70 | $12,242.09 |
+$903.47 (+8.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 24, 2025 12:30pm ET | $73.79 | 165 | $12,175.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Oct 28, 2025 10:55am ET | $71.43 | 165 | $11,785.95 | $11,852.69 |
$-389.40 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Oct 29, 2025 12:45pm ET | $72.25 | 164 | $11,849.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 12, 2025 11:25am ET | $69.92 | 164 | $11,466.06 | $11,469.75 |
$-382.94 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
14d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 13, 2025 1:30pm ET | $69.95 | 163 | $11,401.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $68.40 | 163 | $11,149.10 | $11,217.01 |
$-252.75 (-2.2%) |
⏰ 30 Day Max
31.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:30am ET | $66.61 | 168 | $11,190.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 12:10pm ET | $69.98 | 168 | $11,756.64 | $11,783.17 |
+$566.16 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $69.66 | 169 | $11,772.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 7, 2026 12:10pm ET | $67.56 | 169 | $11,416.80 | $11,427.42 |
$-355.74 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
12.1d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $71.46 | 159 | $11,362.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 2:55pm ET | $75.09 | 159 | $11,938.52 | $12,003.80 |
+$576.38 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.1d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 3:05pm ET | $71.20 | 168 | $11,961.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 27, 2026 11:25am ET | $74.81 | 168 | $12,568.08 | $12,610.28 |
+$606.48 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
11.8d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 28, 2026 11:50am ET | $75.85 | 166 | $12,591.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $80.02 | 166 | $13,283.32 | $13,302.50 |
+$692.22 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 12:15pm ET | $78.48 | 169 | $13,263.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $75.31 | 169 | $12,727.39 | $12,766.77 |
$-535.73 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:30am ET | $76.49 | 166 | $12,697.34 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $78.04 | 166 | $12,953.81 | $13,023.24 |
+$256.47 (+2.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
5.2d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET | $75.43 | 172 | $12,974.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 2:10pm ET | $79.22 | 172 | $13,625.84 | $13,674.26 |
+$651.02 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $80.97 | 168 | $13,602.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $78.09 | 168 | $13,119.10 | $13,190.40 |
$-483.86 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $81.08 | 162 | $13,134.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $87.67 | 162 | $14,202.54 | $14,257.98 |
+$1,067.58 (+8.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:45am ET | $92.10 | 154 | $14,183.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 2:40pm ET | $88.78 | 154 | $13,671.97 | $13,746.55 |
$-511.43 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 5, 2026 3:20pm ET | $96.87 | 141 | $13,658.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $105.40 | 141 | $14,862.10 | $14,949.98 |
+$1,203.43 (+8.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $117.36 | 127 | $14,904.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 11:55am ET | $113.70 | 127 | $14,439.90 | $14,485.13 |
$-464.85 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:05pm ET | $98.23 | 147 | $14,439.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:15pm ET | $103.31 | 147 | $15,186.57 | $15,231.89 |
+$746.76 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 12, 2026 12:30pm ET | $116.01 | 131 | $15,197.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 18, 2026 9:50am ET | $121.99 | 131 | $15,980.68 | $16,015.26 |
+$783.37 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 19, 2026 12:55pm ET | $120.58 | 132 | $15,916.56 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 3:05pm ET | $116.71 | 132 | $15,405.73 | $15,504.43 |
$-510.83 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.2h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $113.15 | 137 | $15,501.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 11:05am ET | $108.11 | 137 | $14,811.06 | $14,813.94 |
$-690.49 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 11:05am ET | $113.34 | 130 | $14,734.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $109.13 | 130 | $14,186.90 | $14,266.64 |
$-547.30 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 2:45pm ET | $117.64 | 121 | $14,233.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 2:15pm ET | $124.09 | 121 | $15,014.88 | $15,047.68 |
+$781.04 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 2:20pm ET | $127.62 | 117 | $14,931.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 1, 2026 9:40am ET | $123.43 | 117 | $14,441.31 | $14,557.45 |
$-490.23 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 2, 2026 10:40am ET | $134.01 | 108 | $14,473.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 6, 2026 2:00pm ET | $140.81 | 108 | $15,207.49 | $15,291.86 |
+$734.41 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 2:20pm ET | $140.29 | 108 | $15,151.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.21 | 108 | $12,874.25 | $13,014.25 |
$-2,277.61 (-15.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET | $126.13 | 103 | $12,991.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $133.26 | 103 | $13,725.90 | $13,748.76 |
+$734.51 (+5.7%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 9:45am ET | $126.80 | 108 | $13,694.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:40am ET | $122.80 | 108 | $13,262.40 | $13,316.76 |
$-432.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.9h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 2:45pm ET | $127.03 | 104 | $13,211.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $114.85 | 104 | $11,944.79 | $12,050.04 |
$-1,266.72 (-9.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $121.55 | 99 | $12,033.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 3:45pm ET | $128.00 | 99 | $12,672.00 | $12,688.59 |
+$638.55 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 46 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 10:50am ET | $130.51 | 97 | $12,659.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET | $137.15 | 97 | $13,303.55 | $13,332.67 |
+$644.08 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9h held |
|
| 47 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 1:55pm ET | $130.04 | 102 | $13,264.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $139.33 | 102 | $14,211.65 | $14,280.24 |
+$947.57 (+7.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.8d held |
|
| 48 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:10am ET | $147.18 | 97 | $14,276.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.35 | 97 | $13,807.95 | $13,811.73 |
$-468.51 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$13,811.73
Net Profit/Loss:
+$3,811.73
Total Return:
+38.12%