Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:29

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
19.1 oversold
20d Trend
-20.9%
5d Trend
-12.4%
EMA20 Dist
-13.6%
ATR%
4.1%
Range Pos
3%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

20
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
2.9/35
Total Return
11.3/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.6/10
Raw Quality 20.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 19.7

30-Day Momentum

51
+19.0%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
6
Trades
2.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 68.6 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+31 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,833
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,565.74
Current Value
$12,160.83
Period P&L
$2,595.09
Max Drawdown
-26.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.41

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+7.55%
Worst Trade
-3.58%
Avg Trade Return
+1.83%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$300,329.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,595.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,595.09
Gross Return
+27.13%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.13%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ARKK Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,565.74 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET $69.88 136 $9,503.68
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.46 136 $9,855.24 $9,917.30 +$351.56
(+3.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $72.30 137 $9,905.10
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:10am ET $70.07 137 $9,599.59 $9,611.79 $-305.51
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $68.75 139 $9,556.94
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 10:40am ET $72.35 139 $10,055.96 $10,110.80 +$499.01
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 12:10pm ET $71.74 140 $10,043.60
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 11:00am ET $69.51 140 $9,731.40 $9,798.60 $-312.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $71.81 136 $9,765.48
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:55am ET $75.40 136 $10,254.40 $10,287.52 +$488.92
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:55am ET $72.08 142 $10,235.00
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $69.83 142 $9,915.86 $9,968.38 $-319.14
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:40am ET $70.30 141 $9,912.30
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:30pm ET $68.14 141 $9,608.44 $9,664.52 $-303.86
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $64.92 148 $9,608.15
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $68.67 148 $10,162.42 $10,218.80 +$554.28
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $66.05 154 $10,171.70
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $69.46 154 $10,696.84 $10,743.94 +$525.14
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $67.80 158 $10,712.40
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $72.92 158 $11,521.55 $11,553.09 +$809.15
(+7.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:10am ET $68.65 168 $11,533.20
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET $73.53 168 $12,353.04 $12,372.93 +$819.84
(+7.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $75.90 163 $12,371.70
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:30am ET $79.82 163 $13,010.66 $13,011.89 +$638.96
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET $77.94 166 $12,938.04
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $75.53 166 $12,537.98 $12,611.83 $-400.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $76.89 164 $12,609.96
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $74.14 164 $12,158.96 $12,160.83 $-451.00
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $12,160.83
Net Profit/Loss: +$2,160.83
Total Return: +21.61%
Back to Marcus Reversal