Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:02:03

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
68.5 neutral
20d Trend
+6.3%
5d Trend
+4.4%
EMA20 Dist
+5.2%
ATR%
2.9%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 5.4/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 4.7

30-Day Momentum

1
-5.9%
30d Return
25%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,837
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$7,511.07
Current Value
$5,980.19
Period P&L
$-1,530.89
Max Drawdown
-36.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.62

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
2 / 8
Best Trade
+5.02%
Worst Trade
-6.28%
Avg Trade Return
-2.09%
Avg Hold Time
8.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$136,337.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-1,530.89
Net P&L (after fees)
$-1,530.89
Gross Return
-20.38%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.38%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 CMCSA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $7,511.07 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 11:20am ET $30.56 243 $7,424.87
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $31.66 243 $7,693.38 $7,705.48 +$268.51
(+3.6%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $31.73 242 $7,677.45
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 2:40pm ET $30.76 242 $7,445.13 $7,473.16 $-232.32
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $30.91 241 $7,448.11
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $29.95 241 $7,217.95 $7,243.01 $-230.15
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 2:50pm ET $30.91 241 $7,448.11
🔴 SELL Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $28.97 241 $6,980.57 $6,775.47 $-467.54
(-6.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
24.7d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 12:00pm ET $29.52 229 $6,760.08
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 11:25am ET $28.63 229 $6,555.13 $6,570.51 $-204.96
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.4h held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET $28.80 228 $6,565.26
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:15am ET $27.86 228 $6,352.08 $6,357.33 $-213.18
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 3:35pm ET $27.89 227 $6,329.90
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 3:20pm ET $29.28 227 $6,647.69 $6,675.13 +$317.80
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
14d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 3:40pm ET $29.95 222 $6,648.90
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:00pm ET $29.01 222 $6,441.33 $6,467.56 $-207.57
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 2:00pm ET $31.77 203 $6,450.32
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $30.29 203 $6,148.87 $6,166.11 $-301.45
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET $27.43 224 $6,144.32
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:50am ET $26.60 224 $5,958.40 $5,980.19 $-185.92
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $5,980.19
Net Profit/Loss: $-4,019.81
Total Return: -40.20%
Back to Marcus Reversal