Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:01:36

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
41.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.4%
5d Trend
-6.3%
EMA20 Dist
-3.9%
ATR%
3.9%
Range Pos
40%
Bounce Ratio
1.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

35
Lifetime
Confidence: 90%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.7/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
2.3/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 38.7/100
× Confidence 0.90 = 34.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-6.0%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-35 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (90%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,840
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$17,250.02
Current Value
$16,413.38
Period P&L
$-836.65
Max Drawdown
-17.7%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
4 / 6
Best Trade
+6.54%
Worst Trade
-8.99%
Avg Trade Return
-0.26%
Avg Hold Time
5.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$349,236.24
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-836.65
Net P&L (after fees)
$-836.65
Gross Return
-4.85%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.85%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 IBM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $17,250.02 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 9:40am ET $284.02 60 $17,041.50
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 2:05pm ET $298.30 60 $17,898.00 $17,928.03 +$856.50
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 9:30am ET $294.99 60 $17,699.70
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 9:55am ET $285.99 60 $17,159.40 $17,387.73 $-540.30
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $259.47 67 $17,384.49
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:50am ET $251.04 67 $16,819.68 $16,822.92 $-564.81
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:35am ET $231.09 72 $16,638.48
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET $243.00 72 $17,496.00 $17,680.44 +$857.52
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $235.97 74 $17,461.78
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:00am ET $248.72 74 $18,405.28 $18,623.94 +$943.50
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET $253.59 73 $18,512.07
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET $245.70 73 $17,936.10 $18,047.97 $-575.97
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 11:00am ET $246.75 73 $18,012.93
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:55am ET $238.76 73 $17,429.48 $17,464.52 $-583.45
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $238.40 73 $17,403.56
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $231.16 73 $16,874.68 $16,935.64 $-528.88
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:30am ET $239.79 70 $16,784.95
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $255.46 70 $17,882.20 $18,032.89 +$1,097.25
(+6.5%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:00am ET $253.63 71 $18,007.73
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET $230.82 71 $16,388.22 $16,413.38 $-1,619.51
(-9.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,413.38
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,413.38
Total Return: +64.13%
Back to Marcus Reversal