Compendium › Marcus Reversal › JNJ
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
JNJ
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 3 trades in period

-2.22%
Last 3 Months Return
$14,771.89
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$15,107.10
Period Start
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PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:04:26

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
88.4 overbought
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+5.8%
EMA20 Dist
+6.5%
ATR%
1.5%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
40.5×
Green/Red 10d
8/2
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

34
Lifetime
Confidence: 81%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
12.1/35
Total Return
14.0/25
Win Rate
5.0/15
Profit Factor
4.4/15
Consistency
6.7/10
Raw Quality 42.2/100
× Confidence 0.81 = 34.4

30-Day Momentum

Insufficient Recent Data
Fewer than 3 trades in the last 30 days. Momentum scores require recent trading activity.
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (81%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,821
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$15,107.10
Current Value
$14,771.89
Period P&L
$-335.18
Max Drawdown
-13.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.92

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
3
Winners / Losers
1 / 2
Best Trade
+0.10%
Worst Trade
-1.84%
Avg Trade Return
-0.75%
Avg Hold Time
21.3d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$88,987.60
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-335.18
Net P&L (after fees)
$-335.18
Gross Return
-2.22%
Net Return (after fees)
-2.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 JNJ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 3 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,107.10 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 11:25am ET $238.39 63 $15,018.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $238.63 63 $15,033.69 $15,122.19 +$15.12
(+0.1%) 		📅 Sim Ended
3.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:15am ET $242.40 62 $15,028.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 12:15pm ET $237.93 62 $14,751.66 $14,845.05 $-277.14
(-1.8%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 2:50pm ET $235.71 62 $14,614.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $234.53 62 $14,540.86 $14,771.89 $-73.16
(-0.5%) 		⏰ 30 Day Max
30.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,771.89
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,771.89
Total Return: +47.72%
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