Compendium › Marcus Reversal › MARA
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
MARA
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 29 trades in period

-43.89%
Last 3 Months Return
$3,618.04
Current Value
17%
Win Rate
$6,447.96
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:38

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
20.9 oversold
20d Trend
-40.9%
5d Trend
-30.4%
EMA20 Dist
-28.9%
ATR%
10.8%
Range Pos
1%
Bounce Ratio
0.2×
Green/Red 10d
2/8
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.1/10
Raw Quality 4.1/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.1

30-Day Momentum

7
-25.9%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 8.6 Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,872
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$6,447.96
Current Value
$3,618.04
Period P&L
$-2,829.92
Max Drawdown
-58.2%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.52

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
29
Winners / Losers
5 / 24
Best Trade
+7.84%
Worst Trade
-5.85%
Avg Trade Return
-1.91%
Avg Hold Time
1.1d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$291,943.97
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,829.92
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,829.92
Gross Return
-43.89%
Net Return (after fees)
-43.89%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 MARA Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 29 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $6,447.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $7.82 824 $6,447.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET $8.30 824 $6,835.08 $6,835.23 +$387.28
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
30m held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 12:20pm ET $7.94 860 $6,828.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 10, 2026 3:30pm ET $7.70 860 $6,622.00 $6,628.83 $-206.40
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.2h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $7.68 863 $6,623.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 10:35am ET $7.43 863 $6,412.09 $6,417.39 $-211.44
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:05pm ET $7.63 841 $6,412.63 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 19, 2026 9:35am ET $7.35 841 $6,184.71 $6,189.48 $-227.91
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.5h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 11:35am ET $7.94 779 $6,185.26 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 12:35pm ET $7.68 779 $5,986.61 $5,990.83 $-198.65
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 3:10pm ET $7.99 749 $5,984.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $8.39 749 $6,284.11 $6,290.43 +$299.60
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
18.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET $8.42 746 $6,282.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 1:30pm ET $8.15 746 $6,076.17 $6,083.79 $-206.64
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $9.14 665 $6,078.03 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $8.60 665 $5,722.32 $5,728.08 $-355.71
(-5.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $9.03 634 $5,725.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 10:25am ET $8.66 634 $5,490.44 $5,493.50 $-234.58
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
55m held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 12:05pm ET $9.23 594 $5,485.59 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET $8.87 594 $5,268.78 $5,276.69 $-216.81
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.6h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET $8.40 627 $5,269.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 11:10am ET $8.14 627 $5,103.59 $5,110.97 $-165.72
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:35pm ET $8.64 591 $5,107.78 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 11, 2026 11:25am ET $8.33 591 $4,923.03 $4,926.23 $-184.75
(-3.6%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 12:15pm ET $9.42 522 $4,917.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:35am ET $9.10 522 $4,752.81 $4,761.80 $-164.43
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:05pm ET $8.98 530 $4,756.75 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $8.52 530 $4,515.60 $4,520.65 $-241.15
(-5.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET $8.92 506 $4,513.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 1:40pm ET $8.63 506 $4,366.78 $4,373.96 $-146.69
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 9:40am ET $8.86 493 $4,367.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 10:20am ET $8.56 493 $4,220.08 $4,226.06 $-147.90
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:10am ET $8.32 507 $4,218.29 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET $8.97 507 $4,549.06 $4,556.83 +$330.77
(+7.8%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:35am ET $8.29 549 $4,551.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $8.00 549 $4,392.00 $4,397.62 $-159.21
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20m held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 10:40am ET $7.88 558 $4,397.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 10:00am ET $8.27 558 $4,617.45 $4,618.03 +$220.41
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 10:00am ET $7.81 591 $4,615.77 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $8.26 591 $4,878.71 $4,880.97 +$262.94
(+5.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
45m held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:05pm ET $8.83 552 $4,874.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:50am ET $8.56 552 $4,727.88 $4,734.75 $-146.22
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 2:05pm ET $9.60 493 $4,730.34 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET $9.31 493 $4,587.37 $4,591.78 $-142.97
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 11:35am ET $10.73 428 $4,590.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $10.37 428 $4,438.40 $4,439.88 $-151.90
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22h held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:10pm ET $11.74 378 $4,435.94 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $11.30 378 $4,272.80 $4,276.74 $-163.14
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 9:30am ET $11.45 373 $4,272.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET $11.10 373 $4,139.96 $4,143.99 $-132.75
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 1:15pm ET $11.81 350 $4,135.25 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET $11.41 350 $3,995.25 $4,003.99 $-140.00
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:25am ET $11.18 358 $4,002.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $10.77 358 $3,855.66 $3,857.25 $-146.74
(-3.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.1h held
28 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $10.73 359 $3,850.28 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $10.39 359 $3,729.97 $3,736.95 $-120.30
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
29 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 2:10pm ET $11.87 314 $3,727.21 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 2:45pm ET $11.49 314 $3,608.30 $3,618.04 $-118.91
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $3,618.04
Net Profit/Loss: $-6,381.96
Total Return: -63.82%
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