Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:11

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
30.2 neutral
20d Trend
-10.9%
5d Trend
-5.8%
EMA20 Dist
-5.4%
ATR%
3.3%
Range Pos
4%
Bounce Ratio
0.9×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

40
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
13.0/35
Total Return
17.3/25
Win Rate
4.0/15
Profit Factor
2.7/15
Consistency
6.2/10
Raw Quality 43.2/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 40.2

30-Day Momentum

2
-13.0%
30d Return
20%
Win Rate
5
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 2.9 Conf: 0.70×
Declining (-38 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,880
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$20,576.44
Current Value
$22,002.55
Period P&L
$1,426.09
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Sharpe Ratio
0.12

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
6 / 6
Best Trade
+11.34%
Worst Trade
-9.14%
Avg Trade Return
+0.68%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$551,757.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,426.09
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,426.09
Gross Return
+6.93%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.93%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NFLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $20,576.44 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 3:10pm ET $80.63 256 $20,641.28
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $81.42 256 $20,842.24 $20,849.10 +$200.96
(+1.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
5d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 3:55pm ET $82.20 253 $20,796.60
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 11:55am ET $79.64 253 $20,148.41 $20,200.91 $-648.19
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET $75.53 267 $20,166.51
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $79.44 267 $21,210.48 $21,244.88 +$1,043.97
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
8d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $84.60 251 $21,234.60
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:30am ET $94.19 251 $23,642.37 $23,652.65 +$2,407.77
(+11.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.6h held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 11:20am ET $96.31 245 $23,596.37
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:10am ET $93.18 245 $22,827.88 $22,884.16 $-768.49
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:10am ET $91.08 251 $22,862.33
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 2:25pm ET $95.66 251 $24,010.66 $24,032.49 +$1,148.33
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.2d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 2:50pm ET $92.82 258 $23,946.30
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 10:45am ET $97.67 258 $25,198.86 $25,285.05 +$1,252.56
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:00am ET $98.63 256 $25,248.00
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 1:30pm ET $103.62 256 $26,527.79 $26,564.84 +$1,279.79
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET $105.72 251 $26,535.72
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $96.05 251 $24,109.05 $24,138.17 $-2,426.67
(-9.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:00am ET $96.14 251 $24,131.14
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 11:30am ET $93.25 251 $23,407.00 $23,414.03 $-724.14
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 11:30am ET $93.22 251 $23,399.47
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $90.39 251 $22,686.64 $22,701.19 $-712.84
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:05pm ET $92.04 246 $22,643.07
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 10:25am ET $89.21 246 $21,944.43 $22,002.55 $-698.64
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $22,002.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$12,002.55
Total Return: +120.03%
Back to Marcus Reversal