Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 05:23:36

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
76.9 overbought
20d Trend
+10.5%
5d Trend
+5.2%
EMA20 Dist
+5.3%
ATR%
1.7%
Range Pos
98%
Bounce Ratio
1.9×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 5, 2026

5
Lifetime
Confidence: 84%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.6/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.2/10
Raw Quality 5.8/100
× Confidence 0.84 = 4.9

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.6%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Cooling (-5 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (84%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,794
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
61 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,941.19
Current Value
$9,107.18
Period P&L
$-834.03
Max Drawdown
-24.4%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.46

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
6
Winners / Losers
1 / 5
Best Trade
+5.09%
Worst Trade
-3.45%
Avg Trade Return
-1.39%
Avg Hold Time
12d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$112,184.21
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-834.03
Net P&L (after fees)
$-834.03
Gross Return
-8.39%
Net Return (after fees)
-8.39%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 PG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 61 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 6 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,941.19 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:15pm ET $158.24 62 $9,810.88
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $157.09 62 $9,739.27 $9,846.66 $-71.61
(-0.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.2d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $160.15 61 $9,769.45
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 9:40am ET $155.26 61 $9,471.16 $9,548.37 $-298.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 9:40am ET $152.60 62 $9,461.20
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 10:35am ET $147.79 62 $9,163.29 $9,250.46 $-297.91
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 11:15am ET $145.43 63 $9,161.78
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:05pm ET $141.02 63 $8,884.26 $8,972.95 $-277.51
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:15am ET $144.69 62 $8,970.78
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET $152.05 62 $9,427.10 $9,429.27 +$456.32
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 28, 2026 12:55pm ET $150.38 62 $9,323.56
🔴 SELL May 4, 2026 9:30am ET $145.18 62 $9,001.47 $9,107.18 $-322.09
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,107.18
Net Profit/Loss: $-892.82
Total Return: -8.93%
Back to Marcus Reversal