Compendium › Marcus Reversal › RIOT
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
RIOT
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Last 3 Months: 2026-02-06 to present • 28 trades in period

-24.18%
Last 3 Months Return
$6,378.69
Current Value
29%
Win Rate
$8,412.73
Period Start
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PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:31

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
28.4 oversold
20d Trend
-31.1%
5d Trend
-24.1%
EMA20 Dist
-22.9%
ATR%
11.0%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.4

30-Day Momentum

37
+11.4%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
10
Trades
1.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.7 Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+33 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,880
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,412.73
Current Value
$6,378.69
Period P&L
$-2,034.05
Max Drawdown
-51.3%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
8 / 20
Best Trade
+10.69%
Worst Trade
-6.09%
Avg Trade Return
-0.88%
Avg Hold Time
22.3h

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$366,700.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,034.05
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,034.05
Gross Return
-24.18%
Net Return (after fees)
-24.18%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 RIOT Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,412.73 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $14.01 600 $8,406.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:55am ET $14.77 600 $8,859.72 $8,866.46 +$453.72
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.4h held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 10, 2026 1:25pm ET $14.90 594 $8,853.57 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 11, 2026 10:20am ET $14.43 594 $8,573.68 $8,586.57 $-279.89
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $14.76 581 $8,576.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $14.16 581 $8,226.96 $8,236.81 $-349.76
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.2h held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 18, 2026 1:10pm ET $15.75 522 $8,221.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 3:15pm ET $15.26 522 $7,965.72 $7,981.03 $-255.78
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1h held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 20, 2026 11:35am ET $16.34 488 $7,976.36 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 20, 2026 12:20pm ET $15.81 488 $7,717.72 $7,722.39 $-258.64
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
45m held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 3:55pm ET $17.03 453 $7,716.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 9:50am ET $16.49 453 $7,469.97 $7,475.50 $-246.89
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7d held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 12:30pm ET $16.43 454 $7,461.49 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $15.92 454 $7,227.68 $7,241.69 $-233.81
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21h held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 11:55am ET $16.44 440 $7,231.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:55am ET $15.93 440 $7,009.20 $7,018.96 $-222.73
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
23h held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 11:25am ET $14.40 487 $7,012.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:10pm ET $13.95 487 $6,796.08 $6,802.25 $-216.71
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 2:10pm ET $14.60 466 $6,801.27 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:50am ET $14.12 466 $6,579.92 $6,580.90 $-221.35
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET $14.99 438 $6,567.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 12:15pm ET $14.52 438 $6,358.23 $6,371.31 $-209.58
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 12:15pm ET $14.37 443 $6,365.91 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $13.49 443 $5,978.28 $5,983.69 $-387.63
(-6.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 1:10pm ET $13.65 438 $5,976.51 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 2:45pm ET $13.23 438 $5,796.93 $5,804.11 $-179.58
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.6h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 11:15am ET $14.22 408 $5,801.76 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET $14.98 408 $6,111.84 $6,114.19 +$310.08
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 26, 2026 9:50am ET $14.57 419 $6,104.83 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET $13.98 419 $5,859.71 $5,869.07 $-245.12
(-4.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1h held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 10:55am ET $12.89 455 $5,862.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:15am ET $12.47 455 $5,671.58 $5,677.97 $-191.10
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $11.57 490 $5,669.15 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:15pm ET $12.31 490 $6,031.90 $6,040.72 +$362.75
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.3h held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:10pm ET $12.60 479 $6,033.01 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $11.94 479 $5,719.26 $5,726.97 $-313.75
(-5.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.3h held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 1:50pm ET $13.44 426 $5,726.80 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 3:20pm ET $14.12 426 $6,015.12 $6,015.29 +$288.32
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 1:30pm ET $16.80 358 $6,014.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET $15.98 358 $5,720.84 $5,721.73 $-293.56
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 1:50pm ET $18.35 311 $5,708.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET $17.58 311 $5,467.38 $5,480.71 $-241.02
(-4.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:55am ET $16.56 331 $5,479.71 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 9:30am ET $17.53 331 $5,802.43 $5,803.44 +$322.73
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:55am ET $17.74 327 $5,800.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 12:05pm ET $18.67 327 $6,103.46 $6,106.18 +$302.74
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 12:05pm ET $18.57 328 $6,090.96 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:45pm ET $17.92 328 $5,877.76 $5,892.98 $-213.20
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.7h held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 11:05am ET $18.30 322 $5,892.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $17.40 322 $5,602.80 $5,603.18 $-289.80
(-4.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 9:35am ET $16.33 343 $5,599.48 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 10:05am ET $15.82 343 $5,426.23 $5,429.93 $-173.25
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
30m held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 12:25pm ET $16.78 323 $5,421.55 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $18.58 323 $6,001.34 $6,009.72 +$579.79
(+10.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
21.1h held
28 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 1:35pm ET $18.27 328 $5,992.59 — — —
🔴 SELL May 5, 2026 9:30am ET $19.40 328 $6,361.56 $6,378.69 +$368.97
(+6.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
19.9h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $6,378.69
Net Profit/Loss: $-3,621.31
Total Return: -36.21%
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