Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:57:24

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality 3.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 3.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-17.0%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,861
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$9,351.96
Current Value
$9,030.60
Period P&L
$-321.36
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.03

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
7 / 8
Best Trade
+6.24%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.15%
Avg Hold Time
3.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$285,585.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-321.36
Net P&L (after fees)
$-321.36
Gross Return
-3.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-3.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $9,351.96 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $50.19 178 $8,933.82
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $48.63 178 $8,656.14 $8,700.66 $-277.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $47.21 184 $8,686.64
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $47.31 184 $8,705.04 $8,719.06 +$18.40
(+0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET $49.94 174 $8,690.26
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $48.25 174 $8,395.50 $8,424.30 $-294.76
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:30am ET $48.68 173 $8,422.28
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $51.67 173 $8,938.91 $8,940.93 +$516.63
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET $49.66 180 $8,938.82
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $52.65 180 $9,477.00 $9,479.11 +$538.18
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET $53.22 178 $9,472.27
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $51.43 178 $9,154.54 $9,161.38 $-317.73
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
7 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $51.58 177 $9,129.68
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET $54.18 177 $9,589.86 $9,621.56 +$460.18
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.20 180 $9,576.18
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $56.52 180 $10,173.60 $10,218.98 +$597.42
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $55.55 183 $10,165.65
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $58.36 183 $10,679.88 $10,733.21 +$514.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $59.91 179 $10,723.89
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $57.79 179 $10,344.41 $10,353.73 $-379.48
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $55.18 187 $10,318.66
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $58.00 187 $10,845.81 $10,880.88 +$527.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET $54.92 198 $10,873.76
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 198 $9,937.82 $9,944.93 $-935.95
(-8.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET $50.10 198 $9,919.60
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.55 198 $9,612.39 $9,637.71 $-307.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $46.56 206 $9,592.39
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET $45.08 206 $9,285.45 $9,330.77 $-306.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $43.16 216 $9,322.49
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $41.77 216 $9,022.32 $9,030.60 $-300.17
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,030.60
Net Profit/Loss: $-969.40
Total Return: -9.69%
Back to Marcus Reversal