Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:02:46

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.50%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.30%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.71
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
31.4 neutral
20d Trend
-11.9%
5d Trend
-13.2%
EMA20 Dist
-11.3%
ATR%
5.7%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

6
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.3/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 6.0/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 5.9

30-Day Momentum

9
-3.1%
30d Return
44%
Win Rate
9
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.2 Conf: 0.84×
Steady (+3 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,992
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-03-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
64 days
Data Gaps
None (3 market holidays)

Market Closed (3 days)

2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,633.23
Current Value
$9,106.96
Period P&L
$473.73
Max Drawdown
-40.9%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
12 / 15
Best Trade
+7.32%
Worst Trade
-9.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.26%
Avg Hold Time
1.7d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$501,840.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$473.73
Net P&L (after fees)
$473.73
Gross Return
+5.49%
Net Return (after fees)
+5.49%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 TQQQ Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 64 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,633.23 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 3:55pm ET $44.83 195 $8,741.87
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 9:50am ET $43.31 195 $8,446.42 $8,480.17 $-295.44
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17.9h held
2 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 11:20am ET $44.20 191 $8,442.20
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET $42.82 191 $8,178.62 $8,216.59 $-263.58
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $40.22 204 $8,203.86
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:05pm ET $39.01 204 $7,957.02 $7,969.75 $-246.84
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.4h held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 2:15pm ET $38.16 208 $7,937.28
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $40.85 208 $8,496.80 $8,529.27 +$559.52
(+7.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
22.4h held
5 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET $43.54 195 $8,491.27
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $41.02 195 $7,998.90 $8,036.90 $-492.37
(-5.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held
6 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 11:30am ET $43.69 183 $7,995.29
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $42.33 183 $7,746.37 $7,787.98 $-248.92
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $47.81 162 $7,745.20
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:25pm ET $50.22 162 $8,134.83 $8,177.61 +$389.63
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 12:55pm ET $54.13 151 $8,174.38
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 12:15pm ET $56.86 151 $8,585.86 $8,589.09 +$411.48
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.3h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 1:35pm ET $58.24 147 $8,561.50
🔴 SELL Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET $61.36 147 $9,019.92 $9,047.51 +$458.42
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 27, 2026 2:55pm ET $62.30 145 $9,033.50
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 10:40am ET $59.99 145 $8,699.27 $8,713.28 $-334.23
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:35pm ET $60.71 143 $8,681.52
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $63.88 143 $9,134.84 $9,166.60 +$453.32
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 11:20am ET $64.87 141 $9,146.68
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:30am ET $69.05 141 $9,736.05 $9,755.97 +$589.37
(+6.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
13 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 12:00pm ET $71.93 135 $9,710.56
🔴 SELL May 8, 2026 1:00pm ET $75.54 135 $10,197.23 $10,242.63 +$486.66
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
14 🟢 BUY May 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $76.80 133 $10,214.40
🔴 SELL May 12, 2026 10:00am ET $74.49 133 $9,906.51 $9,934.73 $-307.90
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
15 🟢 BUY May 14, 2026 1:10pm ET $78.89 125 $9,861.87
🔴 SELL May 15, 2026 9:30am ET $75.66 125 $9,457.50 $9,530.36 $-404.37
(-4.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
20.3h held
16 🟢 BUY May 18, 2026 9:45am ET $74.77 127 $9,495.69
🔴 SELL May 18, 2026 12:30pm ET $72.35 127 $9,188.46 $9,223.13 $-307.23
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8h held
17 🟢 BUY May 19, 2026 2:55pm ET $73.24 125 $9,155.00
🔴 SELL May 21, 2026 1:35pm ET $77.01 125 $9,626.87 $9,695.01 +$471.88
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
18 🟢 BUY May 22, 2026 2:35pm ET $78.51 123 $9,657.34
🔴 SELL May 27, 2026 9:30am ET $82.79 123 $10,183.17 $10,220.84 +$525.83
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.8d held
19 🟢 BUY May 28, 2026 9:40am ET $81.09 126 $10,217.34
🔴 SELL May 29, 2026 9:50am ET $85.27 126 $10,744.27 $10,747.77 +$526.93
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
1d held
20 🟢 BUY Jun 1, 2026 3:00pm ET $86.44 124 $10,718.56
🔴 SELL Jun 4, 2026 9:30am ET $83.37 124 $10,337.88 $10,367.09 $-380.68
(-3.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held
21 🟢 BUY Jun 5, 2026 9:30am ET $81.37 127 $10,333.99
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 11:25am ET $78.80 127 $10,007.60 $10,040.70 $-326.39
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held
22 🟢 BUY Jun 8, 2026 1:25pm ET $76.86 130 $9,991.15
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 10:50am ET $73.54 130 $9,560.20 $9,609.75 $-430.95
(-4.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
23 🟢 BUY Jun 10, 2026 11:15am ET $70.61 136 $9,602.86
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 1:45pm ET $74.66 136 $10,153.76 $10,160.65 +$550.90
(+5.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 12, 2026 2:20pm ET $77.23 131 $10,117.13
🔴 SELL Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $82.88 131 $10,857.28 $10,900.80 +$740.15
(+7.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 16, 2026 10:35am ET $82.73 131 $10,837.63
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 2:05pm ET $78.71 131 $10,311.01 $10,374.18 $-526.62
(-4.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 18, 2026 2:40pm ET $82.77 125 $10,346.25
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $74.96 125 $9,370.00 $9,397.93 $-976.25
(-9.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 24, 2026 12:40pm ET $74.13 126 $9,340.28
🔴 SELL Jun 24, 2026 3:00pm ET $71.82 126 $9,049.31 $9,106.96 $-290.97
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.3h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,106.96
Net Profit/Loss: $-893.04
Total Return: -8.93%
Back to Marcus Reversal