Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:14

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
74.9 overbought
20d Trend
+15.2%
5d Trend
+3.0%
EMA20 Dist
+5.9%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
94%
Bounce Ratio
3.7×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

26
Lifetime
Confidence: 86%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.4/35
Total Return
12.8/25
Win Rate
2.6/15
Profit Factor
2.0/15
Consistency
6.1/10
Raw Quality 29.9/100
× Confidence 0.86 = 25.7

30-Day Momentum

1
-13.1%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-25 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (86%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 3 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
4,842
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-02-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
62 days
Data Gaps
None (2 market holidays)

Market Closed (2 days)

2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 3 Months)

Period Start Capital
$12,407.58
Current Value
$13,408.06
Period P&L
$1,000.48
Max Drawdown
-18.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.19

Trade Statistics (Last 3 Months)

Trades in Period
10
Winners / Losers
5 / 5
Best Trade
+8.20%
Worst Trade
-4.72%
Avg Trade Return
+0.88%
Avg Hold Time
5.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 3 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$283,766.59
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$1,000.48
Net P&L (after fees)
$1,000.48
Gross Return
+8.06%
Net Return (after fees)
+8.06%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 XOM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 62 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 3 Months - 10 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $12,407.58 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 3:45pm ET $148.84 83 $12,353.72
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $151.38 83 $12,564.54 $12,618.40 +$210.82
(+1.7%)
📅 Sim Ended
3d held
2 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:40am ET $147.26 85 $12,517.10
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $159.34 85 $13,543.90 $13,645.20 +$1,026.80
(+8.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
13d held
3 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:45am ET $151.84 89 $13,513.76
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 10:30am ET $159.63 89 $14,207.51 $14,338.95 +$693.75
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
14d held
4 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:00pm ET $158.63 90 $14,276.70
🔴 SELL Mar 24, 2026 11:30am ET $166.69 90 $15,002.10 $15,064.35 +$725.40
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
5 🟢 BUY Mar 25, 2026 12:50pm ET $163.68 92 $15,058.87
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $172.85 92 $15,902.20 $15,907.68 +$843.33
(+5.6%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET $171.55 92 $15,782.60
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 1:25pm ET $166.39 92 $15,307.88 $15,432.96 $-474.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
40m held
7 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 1:25pm ET $160.23 96 $15,382.09
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $152.67 96 $14,656.32 $14,707.19 $-725.77
(-4.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.8d held
8 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:20am ET $157.46 93 $14,643.78
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:25am ET $152.64 93 $14,195.52 $14,258.93 $-448.26
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held
9 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:45am ET $152.25 93 $14,159.25
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 9:35am ET $147.62 93 $13,728.66 $13,828.34 $-430.59
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held
10 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 9:45am ET $147.26 93 $13,695.18
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:35am ET $142.74 93 $13,274.90 $13,408.06 $-420.28
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $13,408.06
Net Profit/Loss: +$3,408.06
Total Return: +34.08%
Back to Marcus Reversal