Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Signals generated 2026-05-06 11:01:51

Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
69.1 neutral
20d Trend
+5.2%
5d Trend
+6.0%
EMA20 Dist
+4.1%
ATR%
2.4%
Range Pos
69%
Bounce Ratio
8.0×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

36
Lifetime
Confidence: 92%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
11.2/35
Total Return
15.3/25
Win Rate
3.5/15
Profit Factor
3.3/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 39.0/100
× Confidence 0.92 = 35.9

30-Day Momentum

59
+21.8%
30d Return
100%
Win Rate
4
Trades
10.0×
Profit Factor
Quality: 89.0 Conf: 0.66×
Accelerating (+23 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (92%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
15,915
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,290.25
Current Value
$16,893.92
Period P&L
$2,603.68
Max Drawdown
-21.5%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
15
Winners / Losers
8 / 7
Best Trade
+5.77%
Worst Trade
-3.51%
Avg Trade Return
+1.40%
Avg Hold Time
10.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$437,850.74
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,603.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,603.68
Gross Return
+18.22%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.22%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AAPL Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 15 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,290.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 21, 2025 11:15am ET $262.92 52 $13,671.83
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET $276.33 52 $14,369.16 $14,619.39 +$697.33
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
23d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 14, 2025 1:40pm ET $274.00 53 $14,522.00
🔴 SELL Dec 3, 2025 9:35am ET $288.22 53 $15,275.67 $15,373.05 +$753.67
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Dec 4, 2025 9:35am ET $283.06 54 $15,285.24
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:55am ET $274.21 54 $14,807.34 $14,895.15 $-477.90
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 2:20pm ET $277.82 53 $14,724.46
🔴 SELL Dec 18, 2025 9:35am ET $268.08 53 $14,207.98 $14,378.67 $-516.49
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 11:45am ET $270.89 53 $14,357.18
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 11:10am ET $262.73 53 $13,924.69 $13,946.18 $-432.49
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
18d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 11:25am ET $261.09 53 $13,837.77
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:35am ET $253.08 53 $13,413.24 $13,521.65 $-424.53
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
12.9d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 11:40am ET $246.00 54 $13,283.73
🔴 SELL Jan 27, 2026 9:30am ET $260.20 54 $14,050.80 $14,288.72 +$767.07
(+5.8%)
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET $257.39 55 $14,156.45
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 9:50am ET $270.92 55 $14,900.50 $15,032.78 +$744.05
(+5.3%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 6, 2026 12:45pm ET $278.38 54 $15,032.52
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $274.60 54 $14,828.40 $14,828.66 $-204.12
(-1.4%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:25pm ET $264.17 56 $14,793.24
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $255.15 56 $14,288.40 $14,323.82 $-504.84
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
16.8d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $254.45 56 $14,249.20
🔴 SELL Mar 30, 2026 10:50am ET $246.46 56 $13,801.48 $13,876.10 $-447.72
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:55am ET $247.33 56 $13,850.48
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 10:10am ET $259.77 56 $14,546.84 $14,572.46 +$696.36
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 10:10am ET $249.08 58 $14,446.64
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 10:15am ET $261.66 58 $15,176.28 $15,302.10 +$729.64
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:30am ET $257.29 59 $15,180.11
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 10:50am ET $270.36 59 $15,951.24 $16,073.23 +$771.13
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET $272.01 59 $16,048.59
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 10:10am ET $285.92 59 $16,869.28 $16,893.92 +$820.69
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
11d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,893.92
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,893.92
Total Return: +68.94%
Back to Marcus Reversal