ARM Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 42 trades in period
+14.00%
Last 6 Months Return
$18,353.18
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$16,099.61
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
46.9 neutral
20d Trend
-0.2%
5d Trend
+2.4%
EMA20 Dist
-0.9%
ATR%
6.3%
Range Pos
19%
Bounce Ratio
1.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
30
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
7.2/35
Total Return
15.1/25
Win Rate
1.1/15
Profit Factor
0.9/15
Consistency
5.5/10
Raw Quality
29.9/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 29.7
30-Day Momentum
34
+11.7%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 42.0
Conf: 0.81×
Steady (+4 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,260
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$16,099.61
Current Value
$18,353.18
Period P&L
$2,253.58
Max Drawdown
-31.3%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
42
Winners / Losers
17 /
25
Best Trade
+11.55%
Worst Trade
-7.54%
Avg Trade Return
+0.51%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,246,479.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,253.58
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,253.58
Gross Return
+14.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+14.00%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 ARM Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 42 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,099.61 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 5, 2025 3:45pm ET | $161.59 | 96 | $15,512.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 10:30am ET | $156.42 | 96 | $15,016.32 | $15,160.73 |
$-496.18 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.8h held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 10:30am ET | $150.20 | 100 | $15,020.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 10, 2025 9:40am ET | $158.21 | 100 | $15,820.50 | $15,961.23 |
+$800.50 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET | $149.62 | 106 | $15,859.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 9:40am ET | $143.89 | 106 | $15,251.81 | $15,353.32 |
$-607.91 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 12:35pm ET | $142.26 | 107 | $15,221.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 18, 2025 9:40am ET | $135.82 | 107 | $14,532.63 | $14,664.13 |
$-689.19 (-4.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 11:00am ET | $136.75 | 107 | $14,632.25 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 3:30pm ET | $132.47 | 107 | $14,174.29 | $14,206.17 |
$-457.96 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.2d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 1:55pm ET | $135.30 | 104 | $14,071.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET | $130.68 | 104 | $13,590.20 | $13,725.17 |
$-481.00 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.6h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 12:45pm ET | $134.32 | 102 | $13,700.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 4, 2025 11:55am ET | $141.28 | 102 | $14,410.56 | $14,435.09 |
+$709.92 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 5, 2025 2:45pm ET | $141.34 | 102 | $14,416.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $136.21 | 102 | $13,893.42 | $13,911.83 |
$-523.26 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 10:20am ET | $133.35 | 104 | $13,868.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 15, 2025 9:30am ET | $128.13 | 104 | $13,325.52 | $13,369.00 |
$-542.83 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 16, 2025 9:35am ET | $122.18 | 109 | $13,317.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 17, 2025 10:35am ET | $118.18 | 109 | $12,881.62 | $12,933.55 |
$-435.45 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 18, 2025 12:15pm ET | $114.09 | 113 | $12,892.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 23, 2025 10:05am ET | $110.54 | 113 | $12,491.02 | $12,532.40 |
$-401.15 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 10:20am ET | $110.82 | 113 | $12,522.66 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.26 | 113 | $13,588.82 | $13,598.55 |
+$1,066.16 (+8.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
12d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 6, 2026 9:45am ET | $115.87 | 117 | $13,556.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $111.55 | 117 | $13,051.35 | $13,093.11 |
$-505.44 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET | $109.55 | 119 | $13,036.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 13, 2026 11:10am ET | $106.21 | 119 | $12,638.40 | $12,695.06 |
$-398.06 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 1:15pm ET | $103.49 | 122 | $12,625.17 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:50am ET | $108.73 | 122 | $13,264.52 | $13,334.41 |
+$639.35 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 11:50am ET | $113.27 | 117 | $13,252.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:30am ET | $120.96 | 117 | $14,152.32 | $14,234.14 |
+$899.73 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.7h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $116.30 | 122 | $14,188.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $111.69 | 122 | $13,626.18 | $13,671.72 |
$-562.42 (-4.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:00am ET | $107.15 | 127 | $13,608.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $103.79 | 127 | $13,180.70 | $13,244.37 |
$-427.35 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 1:05pm ET | $103.93 | 127 | $13,199.11 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:35am ET | $109.60 | 127 | $13,919.20 | $13,964.46 |
+$720.09 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $119.23 | 117 | $13,949.93 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $124.78 | 117 | $14,599.26 | $14,613.78 |
+$649.33 (+4.7%) |
📅 Sim Ended
6.4h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:55am ET | $121.94 | 119 | $14,510.86 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 9:30am ET | $128.42 | 119 | $15,281.98 | $15,384.90 |
+$771.12 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.6h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $124.56 | 123 | $15,321.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 10:20am ET | $131.38 | 123 | $16,159.74 | $16,223.34 |
+$838.44 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 2:25pm ET | $132.26 | 122 | $16,136.33 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $127.75 | 122 | $15,585.50 | $15,672.51 |
$-550.83 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.9h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:30am ET | $126.62 | 123 | $15,574.26 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 11:15am ET | $122.79 | 123 | $15,103.17 | $15,201.42 |
$-471.09 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 3:10pm ET | $124.43 | 122 | $15,180.46 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 11:00am ET | $120.40 | 122 | $14,688.80 | $14,709.76 |
$-491.66 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:35pm ET | $115.98 | 126 | $14,613.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET | $112.43 | 126 | $14,165.55 | $14,261.82 |
$-447.94 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.8d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 2:25pm ET | $121.50 | 117 | $14,215.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 9:45am ET | $117.81 | 117 | $13,783.77 | $13,830.09 |
$-431.73 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 11:00am ET | $115.74 | 119 | $13,773.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 12:35pm ET | $121.72 | 119 | $14,484.68 | $14,541.73 |
+$711.64 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 10:45am ET | $127.40 | 114 | $14,523.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $137.83 | 114 | $15,712.62 | $15,730.75 |
+$1,189.02 (+8.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:40am ET | $135.65 | 115 | $15,599.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.35 | 115 | $17,060.82 | $17,191.83 |
+$1,461.08 (+9.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 11:30am ET | $159.32 | 107 | $17,047.24 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $147.31 | 107 | $15,762.17 | $15,906.76 |
$-1,285.07 (-7.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $142.43 | 111 | $15,810.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 1:20pm ET | $137.87 | 111 | $15,303.85 | $15,400.32 |
$-506.44 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 11:20am ET | $155.40 | 99 | $15,384.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $148.71 | 99 | $14,722.78 | $14,738.51 |
$-661.81 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 3:50pm ET | $148.72 | 99 | $14,723.28 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $144.04 | 99 | $14,260.45 | $14,275.68 |
$-462.83 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.7h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET | $146.95 | 97 | $14,253.67 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET | $156.46 | 97 | $15,176.62 | $15,198.63 |
+$922.95 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 2:25pm ET | $159.77 | 95 | $15,178.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 10:50am ET | $167.86 | 95 | $15,946.70 | $15,967.18 |
+$768.55 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 1:15pm ET | $174.41 | 91 | $15,871.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:45am ET | $183.20 | 91 | $16,671.20 | $16,767.07 |
+$799.89 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.5h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 1:20pm ET | $203.38 | 82 | $16,677.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 9:30am ET | $221.94 | 82 | $18,199.20 | $18,288.80 |
+$1,521.73 (+9.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.2h held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 9:30am ET | $224.49 | 81 | $18,183.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $217.30 | 81 | $17,601.30 | $17,706.41 |
$-582.39 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
10m held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET | $201.94 | 87 | $17,568.78 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:50am ET | $194.24 | 87 | $16,899.31 | $17,036.94 |
$-669.47 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 2:40pm ET | $210.94 | 80 | $16,875.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 9:45am ET | $203.70 | 80 | $16,295.60 | $16,457.34 |
$-579.60 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | May 5, 2026 10:50am ET | $205.22 | 80 | $16,417.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $228.92 | 80 | $18,313.39 | $18,353.18 |
+$1,895.84 (+11.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$18,353.18
Net Profit/Loss:
+$8,353.18
Total Return:
+83.53%