Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:59:45

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
44.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
+1.1%
EMA20 Dist
-0.8%
ATR%
2.1%
Range Pos
55%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
6.2/35
Total Return
14.1/25
Win Rate
2.9/15
Profit Factor
2.1/15
Consistency
6.8/10
Raw Quality 32.2/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 28.4

30-Day Momentum

37
+10.3%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
2.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 60.6 Conf: 0.61×
Steady (+9 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,772
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-07 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$14,989.91
Current Value
$14,923.37
Period P&L
$-66.54
Max Drawdown
-27.6%
Sharpe Ratio
0.05

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
6 / 8
Best Trade
+8.69%
Worst Trade
-5.51%
Avg Trade Return
+0.21%
Avg Hold Time
10.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$402,331.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-66.54
Net P&L (after fees)
$-66.54
Gross Return
-0.44%
Net Return (after fees)
-0.44%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AXP Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,989.91 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Oct 27, 2025 1:10pm ET $360.36 40 $14,414.40
🔴 SELL Nov 17, 2025 1:30pm ET $348.73 40 $13,949.00 $14,264.48 $-465.40
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
21.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 18, 2025 3:45pm ET $341.04 41 $13,982.64
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 9:30am ET $358.14 41 $14,683.54 $14,965.37 +$700.89
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
6.7d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 26, 2025 3:55pm ET $364.12 41 $14,928.92
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 9:40am ET $382.51 41 $15,682.91 $15,719.36 +$753.99
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
14.7d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:55am ET $382.53 41 $15,683.57
🔴 SELL Dec 31, 2025 3:05pm ET $370.89 41 $15,206.49 $15,242.29 $-477.08
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 5, 2026 11:35am ET $380.53 40 $15,221.20
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $359.55 40 $14,382.00 $14,403.09 $-839.20
(-5.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 10:15am ET $357.07 40 $14,282.60
🔴 SELL Jan 30, 2026 11:05am ET $345.61 40 $13,824.40 $13,944.89 $-458.20
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
17d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 11:35am ET $352.82 39 $13,759.79
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $360.03 39 $14,041.17 $14,226.27 +$281.38
(+2.0%)
📅 Sim Ended
6.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 3:35pm ET $344.41 41 $14,120.81
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:55am ET $333.54 41 $13,674.94 $13,780.40 $-445.88
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.8d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 11:30am ET $317.76 43 $13,663.47
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET $334.05 43 $14,364.15 $14,481.08 +$700.68
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 9:40am ET $319.05 45 $14,357.47
🔴 SELL Feb 27, 2026 12:40pm ET $309.18 45 $13,913.10 $14,036.71 $-444.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 2:15pm ET $308.64 45 $13,888.80
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:30am ET $297.35 45 $13,380.75 $13,528.66 $-508.05
(-3.7%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:30am ET $294.11 45 $13,235.17
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $319.66 45 $14,384.70 $14,678.19 +$1,149.53
(+8.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
30d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 10:15am ET $313.11 46 $14,402.83
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $329.18 46 $15,142.28 $15,417.64 +$739.45
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
6d held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $328.86 46 $15,127.56
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 1:05pm ET $318.11 46 $14,633.29 $14,923.37 $-494.27
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $14,923.37
Net Profit/Loss: +$4,923.37
Total Return: +49.23%
Back to Marcus Reversal