RBLX Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 45 trades in period
-40.77%
Last 6 Months Return
$9,878.19
Current Value
33%
Win Rate
$16,677.52
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
33.4 neutral
20d Trend
-23.4%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-9.2%
ATR%
7.4%
Range Pos
5%
Bounce Ratio
0.4×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
7
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.9/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
6.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 6.6
30-Day Momentum
9
-22.0%
30d Return
40%
Win Rate
10
Trades
0.7×
Profit Factor
Quality: 10.0
Conf: 0.87×
Steady (+2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
12,585
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
137 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$16,677.52
Current Value
$9,878.19
Period P&L
$-6,799.33
Max Drawdown
-46.8%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.19
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
45
Winners / Losers
15 /
30
Best Trade
+6.98%
Worst Trade
-22.94%
Avg Trade Return
-1.03%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,231,067.94
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-6,799.33
Net P&L (after fees)
$-6,799.33
Gross Return
-40.77%
Net Return (after fees)
-40.77%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 RBLX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 137 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 45 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,677.52 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 4, 2025 10:35am ET | $103.89 | 162 | $16,830.61 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 10:45am ET | $100.68 | 162 | $16,310.13 | $16,405.34 |
$-520.48 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 12:45pm ET | $102.35 | 160 | $16,376.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $97.50 | 160 | $15,600.00 | $15,629.34 |
$-776.00 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 20, 2025 9:55am ET | $96.12 | 162 | $15,571.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 12:25pm ET | $93.22 | 162 | $15,101.64 | $15,159.54 |
$-469.80 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.5h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 3:15pm ET | $90.02 | 168 | $15,124.07 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 28, 2025 9:45am ET | $94.93 | 168 | $15,948.24 | $15,983.71 |
+$824.17 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 2, 2025 3:55pm ET | $93.69 | 170 | $15,927.30 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 9, 2025 10:15am ET | $98.40 | 170 | $16,728.00 | $16,784.41 |
+$800.70 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.8d held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 10, 2025 10:15am ET | $96.77 | 173 | $16,741.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 11, 2025 9:30am ET | $93.80 | 173 | $16,226.54 | $16,269.74 |
$-514.67 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 12, 2025 9:30am ET | $91.67 | 177 | $16,225.59 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 12, 2025 3:00pm ET | $88.80 | 177 | $15,717.60 | $15,761.75 |
$-507.99 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 15, 2025 3:15pm ET | $87.16 | 180 | $15,687.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 18, 2025 12:10pm ET | $84.50 | 180 | $15,210.00 | $15,283.85 |
$-477.90 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 19, 2025 3:20pm ET | $81.71 | 187 | $15,279.77 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 10:10am ET | $79.02 | 187 | $14,776.74 | $14,780.82 |
$-503.03 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 12:55pm ET | $81.59 | 181 | $14,766.89 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.54 | 181 | $14,034.74 | $14,048.67 |
$-732.14 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.6h held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 12:40pm ET | $76.34 | 184 | $14,045.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:35am ET | $73.92 | 184 | $13,600.36 | $13,603.39 |
$-445.28 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.9h held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:55pm ET | $72.22 | 188 | $13,577.36 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 12, 2026 9:35am ET | $76.18 | 188 | $14,321.84 | $14,347.87 |
+$744.48 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET | $83.26 | 172 | $14,320.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 15, 2026 12:25pm ET | $87.57 | 172 | $15,062.04 | $15,089.19 |
+$741.32 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 16, 2026 12:45pm ET | $88.72 | 170 | $15,082.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $83.88 | 170 | $14,259.60 | $14,266.39 |
$-822.80 (-5.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.9d held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $77.26 | 184 | $14,215.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 22, 2026 9:55am ET | $74.85 | 184 | $13,772.40 | $13,822.95 |
$-443.44 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 1:10pm ET | $73.33 | 188 | $13,786.04 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 10:30am ET | $70.69 | 188 | $13,289.72 | $13,326.63 |
$-496.32 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 10:30am ET | $72.57 | 183 | $13,280.31 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 10:20am ET | $76.41 | 183 | $13,982.12 | $14,028.44 |
+$701.81 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:25am ET | $72.55 | 193 | $14,001.19 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $69.36 | 193 | $13,385.52 | $13,412.77 |
$-615.67 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.8h held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:30pm ET | $68.00 | 197 | $13,396.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $65.32 | 197 | $12,868.53 | $12,885.30 |
$-527.47 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 9:30am ET | $62.42 | 206 | $12,858.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 3:40pm ET | $60.51 | 206 | $12,466.09 | $12,492.87 |
$-392.43 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3d held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 3:40pm ET | $66.93 | 186 | $12,449.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 9:35am ET | $71.61 | 186 | $13,319.46 | $13,362.42 |
+$869.55 (+7.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.7d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 10, 2026 10:40am ET | $72.87 | 183 | $13,335.21 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 11, 2026 9:45am ET | $70.48 | 183 | $12,897.84 | $12,925.05 |
$-437.37 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 12:25pm ET | $63.47 | 203 | $12,885.42 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $61.41 | 203 | $12,466.23 | $12,505.86 |
$-419.19 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 9:45am ET | $60.17 | 207 | $12,456.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $63.37 | 207 | $13,117.59 | $13,167.22 |
+$661.36 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.9h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 25, 2026 11:00am ET | $66.62 | 197 | $13,124.14 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $70.29 | 197 | $13,848.11 | $13,891.19 |
+$723.97 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 11:15am ET | $69.32 | 200 | $13,864.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:50am ET | $66.36 | 200 | $13,273.00 | $13,300.19 |
$-591.00 (-4.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 9:50am ET | $63.60 | 209 | $13,292.40 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:25pm ET | $66.96 | 209 | $13,994.64 | $14,002.43 |
+$702.24 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.6h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:55pm ET | $67.67 | 206 | $13,940.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:45pm ET | $65.50 | 206 | $13,493.00 | $13,555.41 |
$-447.02 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $63.56 | 213 | $13,537.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $60.58 | 213 | $12,903.54 | $12,921.74 |
$-633.67 (-4.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.7d held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 12:05pm ET | $59.10 | 218 | $12,883.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 1:45pm ET | $57.30 | 218 | $12,491.40 | $12,529.34 |
$-392.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $55.98 | 223 | $12,483.54 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 10:10am ET | $59.24 | 223 | $13,211.63 | $13,257.43 |
+$728.09 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 17, 2026 12:50pm ET | $59.35 | 223 | $13,233.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 3:50pm ET | $57.31 | 223 | $12,780.13 | $12,803.63 |
$-453.80 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 3:55pm ET | $58.31 | 219 | $12,770.98 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 1:05pm ET | $56.54 | 219 | $12,383.35 | $12,416.00 |
$-387.63 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 3:05pm ET | $56.41 | 220 | $12,410.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 12:05pm ET | $54.69 | 220 | $12,031.80 | $12,037.60 |
$-378.40 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $52.58 | 228 | $11,989.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $55.32 | 228 | $12,612.96 | $12,661.18 |
+$623.58 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET | $57.80 | 219 | $12,658.20 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 7, 2026 11:05am ET | $56.04 | 219 | $12,272.76 | $12,275.74 |
$-385.44 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 8, 2026 11:55am ET | $57.53 | 213 | $12,254.95 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 2:55pm ET | $55.74 | 213 | $11,872.62 | $11,893.41 |
$-382.33 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 10, 2026 10:10am ET | $52.92 | 224 | $11,852.96 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 13, 2026 9:35am ET | $56.50 | 224 | $12,656.00 | $12,696.45 |
+$803.04 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 14, 2026 12:00pm ET | $57.01 | 222 | $12,656.22 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 15, 2026 9:35am ET | $60.29 | 222 | $13,384.38 | $13,424.61 |
+$728.16 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
21.6h held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 16, 2026 1:00pm ET | $60.26 | 222 | $13,378.83 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 21, 2026 10:10am ET | $63.42 | 222 | $14,080.35 | $14,126.13 |
+$701.52 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held |
|
| 41 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 22, 2026 10:45am ET | $61.21 | 230 | $14,077.15 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 23, 2026 9:30am ET | $56.80 | 230 | $13,064.00 | $13,112.98 |
$-1,013.15 (-7.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 42 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 24, 2026 9:40am ET | $53.65 | 244 | $13,091.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 27, 2026 9:40am ET | $56.47 | 244 | $13,778.68 | $13,799.84 |
+$686.86 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 43 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 28, 2026 10:50am ET | $56.46 | 244 | $13,777.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET | $54.53 | 244 | $13,306.54 | $13,329.09 |
$-470.75 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held |
|
| 44 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 3:55pm ET | $55.18 | 241 | $13,298.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 9:30am ET | $42.52 | 241 | $10,247.32 | $10,278.03 |
$-3,051.06 (-22.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
17.6h held |
|
| 45 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 3:25pm ET | $47.72 | 215 | $10,260.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:40am ET | $45.87 | 215 | $9,860.98 | $9,878.19 |
$-399.84 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
18.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$9,878.19
Net Profit/Loss:
$-121.81
Total Return:
-1.22%