Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:55

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
49 neutral
20d Trend
-0.0%
5d Trend
-1.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.7%
ATR%
2.5%
Range Pos
78%
Bounce Ratio
0.8×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

44
Lifetime
Confidence: 88%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
20.6/35
Total Return
15.0/25
Win Rate
4.9/15
Profit Factor
3.4/15
Consistency
5.7/10
Raw Quality 49.7/100
× Confidence 0.88 = 43.6

30-Day Momentum

15
+3.5%
30d Return
50%
Win Rate
4
Trades
1.2×
Profit Factor
Quality: 22.1 Conf: 0.66×
Declining (-29 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (88%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
10,333
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
131 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$13,753.98
Current Value
$16,339.55
Period P&L
$2,585.59
Max Drawdown
-10.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.34

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
14
Winners / Losers
8 / 6
Best Trade
+5.22%
Worst Trade
-3.83%
Avg Trade Return
+1.37%
Avg Hold Time
9.9d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$431,846.83
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,585.59
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,585.59
Gross Return
+18.80%
Net Return (after fees)
+18.80%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SCHW Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 131 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 14 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,753.98 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 4, 2025 9:30am ET $92.22 148 $13,648.56
🔴 SELL Nov 11, 2025 11:45am ET $96.89 148 $14,339.72 $14,351.88 +$691.16
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 12, 2025 2:20pm ET $97.51 147 $14,333.97
🔴 SELL Nov 14, 2025 9:30am ET $93.78 147 $13,785.66 $13,803.57 $-548.31
(-3.8%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 17, 2025 9:30am ET $93.94 146 $13,715.24
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 11:55am ET $91.05 146 $13,293.30 $13,381.63 $-421.94
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Nov 21, 2025 1:15pm ET $90.04 148 $13,325.92
🔴 SELL Dec 4, 2025 9:30am ET $94.62 148 $14,003.02 $14,058.73 +$677.10
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
12.8d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 5, 2025 11:35am ET $95.13 147 $13,984.11
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET $100.10 147 $14,714.70 $14,789.32 +$730.59
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
16.9d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 10:50am ET $101.26 146 $14,783.23
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 10:50am ET $104.84 146 $15,306.64 $15,312.73 +$523.41
(+3.5%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
30d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 10:55am ET $102.17 149 $15,223.33
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $107.04 149 $15,949.70 $16,039.10 +$726.37
(+4.8%)
📅 Sim Ended
17.2d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:25am ET $92.39 173 $15,983.47
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 1:40pm ET $97.02 173 $16,784.46 $16,840.09 +$800.99
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
9.1d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 2, 2026 3:30pm ET $95.99 175 $16,798.25
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $92.83 175 $16,245.25 $16,287.09 $-553.00
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $93.44 174 $16,259.43
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 2:05pm ET $90.56 174 $15,757.44 $15,785.10 $-501.99
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.2d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 2:15pm ET $92.67 170 $15,753.90
🔴 SELL Apr 9, 2026 12:05pm ET $97.50 170 $16,575.00 $16,606.20 +$821.10
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
26.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 10, 2026 12:05pm ET $94.24 176 $16,585.36
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:10am ET $98.97 176 $17,418.72 $17,439.56 +$833.36
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4d held
13 🟢 BUY Apr 16, 2026 9:30am ET $96.69 180 $17,405.10
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:30pm ET $93.51 180 $16,831.80 $16,866.26 $-573.30
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5h held
14 🟢 BUY Apr 21, 2026 10:55am ET $92.73 181 $16,784.13
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 12:40pm ET $89.82 181 $16,257.42 $16,339.55 $-526.71
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $16,339.55
Net Profit/Loss: +$6,339.55
Total Return: +63.40%
Back to Marcus Reversal