Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 2: FEAR TRANSITION
⚡ Fear Bear (strategies thrive)
Signals generated 2026-06-24 20:00:08

Fear building. Reversal strategies are becoming viable. Watch for bounce signals.

Fear & Greed
17
Extreme Fear
VIX
19.5
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.51%
HIGH
Yield Curve
+0.34%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.65
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟠 1.5
Active
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Active magnetosphere: slight tilt toward volume/macro strategies.

Strategy Score Scored Jun 24, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 97%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.7/10
Raw Quality 3.7/100
× Confidence 0.97 = 3.6

30-Day Momentum

43
+13.2%
30d Return
57%
Win Rate
7
Trades
1.8×
Profit Factor
Quality: 54.6 Conf: 0.78×
Accelerating (+39 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (97%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
11,945
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-12-24 → 2026-06-24
Trading Days
132 days
Data Gaps
None (7 market holidays)

Market Closed (7 days)

2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday, 2026-05-25 — Memorial Day, 2026-06-19 — Juneteenth
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,640.62
Current Value
$9,591.29
Period P&L
$950.68
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.10

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
28
Winners / Losers
13 / 15
Best Trade
+6.65%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.48%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$509,155.06
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$950.68
Net P&L (after fees)
$950.68
Gross Return
+11.00%
Net Return (after fees)
+11.00%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 132 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 28 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,640.62 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 1:20pm ET $49.32 175 $8,631.00
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET $47.82 175 $8,367.63 $8,380.74 $-263.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
2 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 3:35pm ET $47.87 175 $8,377.25
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $50.28 175 $8,799.00 $8,802.49 +$421.75
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
24.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $49.35 178 $8,784.30
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET $47.76 178 $8,501.87 $8,520.06 $-282.43
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:30am ET $47.15 180 $8,487.72
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $49.70 180 $8,946.00 $8,978.34 +$458.28
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $50.19 178 $8,933.82
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $48.63 178 $8,656.14 $8,700.66 $-277.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $47.21 184 $8,686.64
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $47.31 184 $8,705.04 $8,719.06 +$18.40
(+0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET $49.94 174 $8,690.26
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $48.25 174 $8,395.50 $8,424.30 $-294.76
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:30am ET $48.68 173 $8,422.28
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $51.67 173 $8,938.91 $8,940.93 +$516.63
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET $49.66 180 $8,938.82
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $52.65 180 $9,477.00 $9,479.11 +$538.18
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET $53.22 178 $9,472.27
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $51.43 178 $9,154.54 $9,161.38 $-317.73
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $51.58 177 $9,129.68
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET $54.18 177 $9,589.86 $9,621.56 +$460.18
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.20 180 $9,576.18
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $56.52 180 $10,173.60 $10,218.98 +$597.42
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $55.55 183 $10,165.65
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $58.36 183 $10,679.88 $10,733.21 +$514.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $59.91 179 $10,723.89
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $57.79 179 $10,344.41 $10,353.73 $-379.48
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $55.18 187 $10,318.66
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $58.00 187 $10,845.81 $10,880.88 +$527.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET $54.92 198 $10,873.76
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 198 $9,937.82 $9,944.93 $-935.95
(-8.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET $50.10 198 $9,919.60
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.55 198 $9,612.39 $9,637.71 $-307.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $46.56 206 $9,592.39
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET $45.08 206 $9,285.45 $9,330.77 $-306.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $43.16 216 $9,322.49
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $41.77 216 $9,022.32 $9,030.60 $-300.17
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
20 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:40am ET $41.60 217 $9,027.22
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:55am ET $40.29 217 $8,742.93 $8,746.31 $-284.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
21 🟢 BUY May 7, 2026 10:55am ET $39.26 222 $8,715.72
🔴 SELL May 14, 2026 9:30am ET $38.03 222 $8,442.66 $8,473.25 $-273.06
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6.9d held
22 🟢 BUY May 15, 2026 1:20pm ET $38.31 221 $8,466.51
🔴 SELL May 26, 2026 9:45am ET $37.10 221 $8,199.10 $8,205.84 $-267.41
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
10.9d held
23 🟢 BUY May 27, 2026 12:50pm ET $37.17 220 $8,178.50
🔴 SELL Jun 1, 2026 1:30pm ET $36.06 220 $7,932.10 $7,959.44 $-246.40
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
24 🟢 BUY Jun 3, 2026 1:50pm ET $36.51 217 $7,923.75
🔴 SELL Jun 5, 2026 12:45pm ET $38.38 217 $8,329.54 $8,365.23 +$405.79
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
25 🟢 BUY Jun 9, 2026 9:45am ET $37.95 220 $8,349.00
🔴 SELL Jun 9, 2026 11:30am ET $40.20 220 $8,844.00 $8,860.23 +$495.00
(+5.9%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.8h held
26 🟢 BUY Jun 11, 2026 9:55am ET $40.22 220 $8,848.36
🔴 SELL Jun 11, 2026 3:30pm ET $38.88 220 $8,553.60 $8,565.47 $-294.76
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5.6h held
27 🟢 BUY Jun 15, 2026 9:30am ET $36.90 232 $8,559.64
🔴 SELL Jun 17, 2026 3:40pm ET $38.74 232 $8,987.68 $8,993.51 +$428.04
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.3d held
28 🟢 BUY Jun 22, 2026 9:40am ET $36.99 243 $8,988.57
🔴 SELL Jun 23, 2026 9:30am ET $39.45 243 $9,586.35 $9,591.29 +$597.78
(+6.7%)
🎯 +5% Target
23.8h held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $9,591.29
Net Profit/Loss: $-408.71
Total Return: -4.09%
Back to Marcus Reversal