Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 10:07:53

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
42.6 neutral
20d Trend
-5.1%
5d Trend
-1.5%
EMA20 Dist
-1.8%
ATR%
3.2%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
6/4
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

3
Lifetime
Confidence: 96%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
3.5/10
Raw Quality 3.5/100
× Confidence 0.96 = 3.3

30-Day Momentum

1
-17.0%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
4
Trades
0.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 1.4 Conf: 0.66×
Cooling (-2 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (96%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
13,282
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
133 days
Data Gaps
1 day with gaps

Data Gap Notice

The following dates had fewer candles than expected. This could be due to early market closes, API rate limits during data collection, or low volume periods. Simulation results may be slightly affected.

2025-11-28 (no data)

Market Closed (6 days)

2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)

Period Start Capital
$8,182.06
Current Value
$8,746.31
Period P&L
$564.25
Max Drawdown
-30.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.08

Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)

Trades in Period
26
Winners / Losers
12 / 14
Best Trade
+6.24%
Worst Trade
-8.61%
Avg Trade Return
+0.36%
Avg Hold Time
4.2d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$476,466.87
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$564.25
Net P&L (after fees)
$564.25
Gross Return
+6.90%
Net Return (after fees)
+6.90%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 SPXU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 133 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Last 6 Months - 26 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $8,182.06 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Nov 11, 2025 9:40am ET $50.44 162 $8,171.28
🔴 SELL Nov 13, 2025 10:15am ET $53.06 162 $8,596.04 $8,606.83 +$424.76
(+5.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
2 🟢 BUY Nov 19, 2025 12:05pm ET $54.28 158 $8,576.24
🔴 SELL Nov 20, 2025 9:35am ET $57.02 158 $9,009.16 $9,039.75 +$432.92
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.5h held
3 🟢 BUY Nov 24, 2025 9:30am ET $53.75 168 $9,030.00
🔴 SELL Nov 25, 2025 10:35am ET $52.10 168 $8,752.80 $8,762.55 $-277.20
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
4 🟢 BUY Dec 2, 2025 9:50am ET $50.64 173 $8,760.72
🔴 SELL Dec 11, 2025 11:15am ET $49.04 173 $8,483.92 $8,485.75 $-276.80
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held
5 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 1:35pm ET $50.56 167 $8,443.52
🔴 SELL Dec 17, 2025 1:45pm ET $53.15 167 $8,875.22 $8,917.44 +$431.70
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
5d held
6 🟢 BUY Dec 19, 2025 9:35am ET $51.42 173 $8,895.66
🔴 SELL Dec 22, 2025 12:50pm ET $49.84 173 $8,622.34 $8,644.12 $-273.32
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held
7 🟢 BUY Dec 23, 2025 1:20pm ET $49.32 175 $8,631.00
🔴 SELL Dec 24, 2025 11:35am ET $47.82 175 $8,367.63 $8,380.74 $-263.38
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held
8 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 3:35pm ET $47.87 175 $8,377.25
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:20pm ET $50.28 175 $8,799.00 $8,802.49 +$421.75
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
24.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 2:25pm ET $49.35 178 $8,784.30
🔴 SELL Jan 26, 2026 9:40am ET $47.76 178 $8,501.87 $8,520.06 $-282.43
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 10:30am ET $47.15 180 $8,487.72
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:25pm ET $49.70 180 $8,946.00 $8,978.34 +$458.28
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
8.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:25pm ET $50.19 178 $8,933.82
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $48.63 178 $8,656.14 $8,700.66 $-277.68
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 12:25pm ET $47.21 184 $8,686.64
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $47.31 184 $8,705.04 $8,719.06 +$18.40
(+0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
3.5h held
13 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET $49.94 174 $8,690.26
🔴 SELL Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET $48.25 174 $8,395.50 $8,424.30 $-294.76
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
7.9d held
14 🟢 BUY Feb 26, 2026 11:30am ET $48.68 173 $8,422.28
🔴 SELL Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $51.67 173 $8,938.91 $8,940.93 +$516.63
(+6.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 4, 2026 10:20am ET $49.66 180 $8,938.82
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $52.65 180 $9,477.00 $9,479.11 +$538.18
(+6.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET $53.22 178 $9,472.27
🔴 SELL Mar 9, 2026 3:30pm ET $51.43 178 $9,154.54 $9,161.38 $-317.73
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 1:10pm ET $51.58 177 $9,129.68
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 11:05am ET $54.18 177 $9,589.86 $9,621.56 +$460.18
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET $53.20 180 $9,576.18
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $56.52 180 $10,173.60 $10,218.98 +$597.42
(+6.2%)
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 23, 2026 9:30am ET $55.55 183 $10,165.65
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 3:55pm ET $58.36 183 $10,679.88 $10,733.21 +$514.23
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
3.3d held
20 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET $59.91 179 $10,723.89
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $57.79 179 $10,344.41 $10,353.73 $-379.48
(-3.5%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 3:30pm ET $55.18 187 $10,318.66
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:40am ET $58.00 187 $10,845.81 $10,880.88 +$527.15
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
18.2h held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 9:55am ET $54.92 198 $10,873.76
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $50.19 198 $9,937.82 $9,944.93 $-935.95
(-8.6%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:35am ET $50.10 198 $9,919.60
🔴 SELL Apr 13, 2026 3:50pm ET $48.55 198 $9,612.39 $9,637.71 $-307.22
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.2d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 14, 2026 3:50pm ET $46.56 206 $9,592.39
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 11:15am ET $45.08 206 $9,285.45 $9,330.77 $-306.94
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 17, 2026 12:50pm ET $43.16 216 $9,322.49
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:30am ET $41.77 216 $9,022.32 $9,030.60 $-300.17
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.9d held
26 🟢 BUY May 4, 2026 10:40am ET $41.60 217 $9,027.22
🔴 SELL May 6, 2026 9:55am ET $40.29 217 $8,742.93 $8,746.31 $-284.29
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $8,746.31
Net Profit/Loss: $-1,253.69
Total Return: -12.54%
Back to Marcus Reversal