VXX Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Last 6 Months: 2025-11-06 to present • 40 trades in period
+0.18%
Last 6 Months Return
$14,506.93
Current Value
40%
Win Rate
$14,481.53
Period Start
PHASE 5: BULL TREND
Trend-following and momentum strategies active. Ride winners.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
62.8 neutral
20d Trend
+12.6%
5d Trend
+8.3%
EMA20 Dist
+8.3%
ATR%
4.8%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
1.8×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
24
Lifetime
Confidence: 100%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
4.9/35
Total Return
13.8/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
0.7/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality
24.4/100
× Confidence 1.00
= 24.3
30-Day Momentum
3
-23.9%
30d Return
0%
Win Rate
6
Trades
0.5×
Profit Factor
Quality: 4.3
Conf: 0.74×
Declining (-21 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (100%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Last 6 Months)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
14,660
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2025-11-06 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
138 days
Data Gaps
None (6 market holidays)
Market Closed (6 days)
2025-11-27 — Thanksgiving, 2025-12-25 — Christmas Day, 2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Last 6 Months)
Period Start Capital
$14,481.53
Current Value
$14,506.93
Period P&L
$25.38
Max Drawdown
-32.2%
Sharpe Ratio
0.02
Trade Statistics (Last 6 Months)
Trades in Period
40
Winners / Losers
16 /
24
Best Trade
+8.62%
Worst Trade
-8.89%
Avg Trade Return
+0.11%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Last 6 Months)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$1,204,317.30
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$25.38
Net P&L (after fees)
$25.38
Gross Return
+0.18%
Net Return (after fees)
+0.18%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 VXX Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 138 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Last 6 Months - 40 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $14,481.53 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 3, 2025 9:30am ET | $33.67 | 430 | $14,478.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 6, 2025 11:45am ET | $35.39 | 430 | $15,217.70 | $15,251.24 |
+$739.60 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 7, 2025 1:55pm ET | $36.04 | 423 | $15,244.92 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 7, 2025 3:50pm ET | $34.93 | 423 | $14,775.39 | $14,781.71 |
$-469.53 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 11, 2025 9:45am ET | $32.73 | 451 | $14,761.23 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 13, 2025 1:15pm ET | $34.41 | 451 | $15,518.91 | $15,539.39 |
+$757.68 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.1d held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 14, 2025 2:50pm ET | $34.29 | 453 | $15,533.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 17, 2025 1:55pm ET | $36.01 | 453 | $16,311.40 | $16,317.41 |
+$778.03 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 19, 2025 10:10am ET | $36.15 | 451 | $16,303.65 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 20, 2025 9:30am ET | $34.35 | 451 | $15,491.85 | $15,505.61 |
$-811.80 (-5.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 21, 2025 11:45am ET | $38.56 | 402 | $15,501.12 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 21, 2025 1:40pm ET | $37.35 | 402 | $15,016.55 | $15,021.04 |
$-484.57 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9h held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 24, 2025 2:00pm ET | $34.63 | 433 | $14,994.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Nov 26, 2025 9:30am ET | $33.20 | 433 | $14,375.60 | $14,401.85 |
$-619.19 (-4.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Nov 28, 2025 10:15am ET | $32.31 | 445 | $14,378.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 3, 2025 12:20pm ET | $31.34 | 445 | $13,946.26 | $13,969.40 |
$-432.45 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
5.1d held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 4, 2025 12:40pm ET | $31.18 | 448 | $13,968.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 10, 2025 2:55pm ET | $30.11 | 448 | $13,487.04 | $13,487.80 |
$-481.60 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
6.1d held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 11, 2025 3:00pm ET | $29.60 | 455 | $13,468.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 19, 2025 9:30am ET | $28.58 | 455 | $13,001.63 | $13,021.43 |
$-466.38 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 22, 2025 9:30am ET | $27.41 | 475 | $13,019.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Dec 29, 2025 2:25pm ET | $26.53 | 475 | $12,601.75 | $12,603.43 |
$-418.00 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
7.2d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 30, 2025 3:00pm ET | $26.26 | 480 | $12,602.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 14, 2026 9:50am ET | $27.62 | 480 | $13,257.60 | $13,258.34 |
+$654.91 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
14.8d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 15, 2026 9:50am ET | $26.24 | 505 | $13,251.81 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.04 | 505 | $14,160.20 | $14,166.73 |
+$908.39 (+6.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 21, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.29 | 500 | $14,145.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:15am ET | $27.43 | 500 | $13,715.00 | $13,736.73 |
$-430.00 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 22, 2026 11:10am ET | $26.25 | 523 | $13,728.75 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 29, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.79 | 523 | $14,532.23 | $14,540.22 |
+$803.48 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 30, 2026 9:35am ET | $27.01 | 538 | $14,528.69 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 2, 2026 11:35am ET | $26.19 | 538 | $14,090.22 | $14,101.75 |
$-438.47 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.1d held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 3, 2026 3:15pm ET | $27.55 | 511 | $14,078.05 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 5, 2026 10:00am ET | $28.97 | 511 | $14,802.75 | $14,826.45 |
+$724.70 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.8d held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 6, 2026 10:10am ET | $27.99 | 529 | $14,806.71 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 10:00am ET | $27.09 | 529 | $14,330.61 | $14,350.35 |
$-476.10 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 11:20am ET | $28.98 | 495 | $14,342.63 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 17, 2026 2:45pm ET | $28.09 | 495 | $13,904.55 | $13,912.27 |
$-438.08 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.4h held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 3:50pm ET | $29.09 | 478 | $13,905.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $28.18 | 478 | $13,472.43 | $13,479.68 |
$-432.59 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 23, 2026 1:40pm ET | $28.92 | 466 | $13,474.39 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.88 | 466 | $12,992.08 | $12,997.37 |
$-482.31 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:30am ET | $27.27 | 476 | $12,982.90 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:25am ET | $28.69 | 476 | $13,656.44 | $13,670.91 |
+$673.54 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
55m held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 10:50am ET | $28.72 | 476 | $13,670.72 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $30.60 | 476 | $14,565.60 | $14,565.79 |
+$894.88 (+6.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.9d held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 3, 2026 11:25am ET | $32.01 | 455 | $14,564.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 1:10pm ET | $30.95 | 455 | $14,084.52 | $14,085.81 |
$-479.98 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.8h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:35pm ET | $29.17 | 482 | $14,057.53 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 10:25am ET | $30.90 | 482 | $14,893.80 | $14,922.08 |
+$836.27 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
20.8h held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 9, 2026 11:15am ET | $35.23 | 423 | $14,902.29 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 9, 2026 12:30pm ET | $34.14 | 423 | $14,441.22 | $14,461.01 |
$-461.07 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 1:15pm ET | $30.92 | 467 | $14,439.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 10, 2026 2:20pm ET | $32.49 | 467 | $15,172.83 | $15,194.20 |
+$733.19 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.1h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 11, 2026 2:45pm ET | $33.01 | 460 | $15,184.60 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 13, 2026 11:50am ET | $34.70 | 460 | $15,962.32 | $15,971.92 |
+$777.72 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 16, 2026 1:30pm ET | $32.85 | 486 | $15,965.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $31.63 | 486 | $15,372.18 | $15,379.00 |
$-592.92 (-3.7%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 2:05pm ET | $33.69 | 456 | $15,360.82 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.59 | 456 | $16,685.04 | $16,703.22 |
+$1,324.22 (+8.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.4h held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 12:00pm ET | $34.59 | 482 | $16,672.38 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 3:40pm ET | $36.48 | 482 | $17,583.36 | $17,614.20 |
+$910.98 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.7h held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 2:40pm ET | $34.46 | 511 | $17,606.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 1:25pm ET | $36.31 | 511 | $18,551.86 | $18,559.55 |
+$945.35 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $38.03 | 488 | $18,558.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 10:30am ET | $36.88 | 488 | $17,999.88 | $18,000.79 |
$-558.76 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1d held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 10:55am ET | $34.78 | 517 | $17,983.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $36.83 | 517 | $19,041.11 | $19,058.06 |
+$1,057.27 (+5.9%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.6h held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 6, 2026 9:30am ET | $34.63 | 550 | $19,046.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $31.55 | 550 | $17,352.56 | $17,364.11 |
$-1,693.95 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 11:00am ET | $31.47 | 551 | $17,337.27 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 1:40pm ET | $30.52 | 551 | $16,816.52 | $16,843.36 |
$-520.75 (-3.0%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 10:40am ET | $30.43 | 553 | $16,827.79 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 9:30am ET | $28.94 | 553 | $16,003.82 | $16,019.39 |
$-823.97 (-4.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.8h held |
|
| 38 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 1:50pm ET | $29.33 | 546 | $16,016.91 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 11:25am ET | $28.43 | 546 | $15,522.78 | $15,525.26 |
$-494.13 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held |
|
| 39 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 12:15pm ET | $29.42 | 527 | $15,504.02 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 3:55pm ET | $28.40 | 527 | $14,966.85 | $14,988.09 |
$-537.17 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
8.2d held |
|
| 40 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 30, 2026 10:15am ET | $28.61 | 523 | $14,963.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 4, 2026 10:20am ET | $27.69 | 523 | $14,481.87 | $14,506.93 |
$-481.16 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$14,506.93
Net Profit/Loss:
+$4,506.93
Total Return:
+45.07%