Compendium › Marcus Reversal › AVGO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
AVGO
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 23 trades in period

+2.79%
Year to Date Return
$15,650.00
Current Value
39%
Win Rate
$15,224.71
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 07:57:14

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
32.7 neutral
20d Trend
-13.0%
5d Trend
-6.9%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
4.0%
Range Pos
10%
Bounce Ratio
0.5×
Green/Red 10d
7/3
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

28
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.3/35
Total Return
14.6/25
Win Rate
0.5/15
Profit Factor
1.2/15
Consistency
5.4/10
Raw Quality 28.9/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 28.5

30-Day Momentum

69
+26.3%
30d Return
83%
Win Rate
6
Trades
3.6×
Profit Factor
Quality: 93.2 Conf: 0.74×
Accelerating (+41 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,448
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$15,224.71
Current Value
$15,650.00
Period P&L
$425.30
Max Drawdown
-27.0%
Sharpe Ratio
0.04

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
23
Winners / Losers
9 / 14
Best Trade
+6.91%
Worst Trade
-4.44%
Avg Trade Return
+0.16%
Avg Hold Time
3.4d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$620,341.42
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$425.30
Net P&L (after fees)
$425.30
Gross Return
+2.79%
Net Return (after fees)
+2.79%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 AVGO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 23 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $15,224.71 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 26, 2025 12:50pm ET $350.76 43 $15,082.47 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:35am ET $339.20 43 $14,585.60 $14,929.30 $-496.87
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
9.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 3:05pm ET $346.71 43 $14,908.53 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 8, 2026 9:40am ET $335.68 43 $14,434.24 $14,455.01 $-474.29
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 9, 2026 12:15pm ET $343.62 42 $14,432.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 1:35pm ET $333.29 42 $13,998.18 $14,021.15 $-433.86
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
11.1d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 22, 2026 12:40pm ET $329.26 42 $13,828.92 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $315.67 42 $13,258.14 $13,450.37 $-570.78
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
20.8h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 26, 2026 3:05pm ET $326.52 41 $13,387.42 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:40am ET $316.00 41 $12,956.12 $13,019.07 $-431.30
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
7.8d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:45am ET $311.24 41 $12,761.04 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 4, 2026 12:15pm ET $301.34 41 $12,354.94 $12,612.96 $-406.10
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.5h held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 1:45pm ET $316.60 39 $12,347.21 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 12:25pm ET $333.18 39 $12,994.21 $13,259.97 +$647.01
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:20pm ET $346.74 38 $13,176.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $344.34 38 $13,084.92 $13,168.77 $-91.20
(-0.7%) 		📅 Sim Ended
2.6h held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $319.55 41 $13,101.55 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 18, 2026 10:30am ET $335.60 41 $13,759.60 $13,826.82 +$658.05
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 19, 2026 12:05pm ET $334.49 41 $13,714.09 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 24, 2026 9:30am ET $322.80 41 $13,234.72 $13,347.45 $-479.37
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.9d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 25, 2026 11:00am ET $331.30 40 $13,252.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 9:40am ET $320.54 40 $12,821.60 $12,917.05 $-430.40
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
22.7h held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 1:40pm ET $316.55 40 $12,662.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 5, 2026 10:00am ET $332.86 40 $13,314.60 $13,569.65 +$652.60
(+5.2%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5.8d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 6, 2026 1:10pm ET $339.14 40 $13,565.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 3:35pm ET $328.88 40 $13,155.20 $13,159.25 $-410.40
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.4h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 10, 2026 12:10pm ET $345.79 38 $13,140.02 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 9:55am ET $333.61 38 $12,677.18 $12,696.41 $-462.84
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 10:50am ET $330.18 38 $12,546.84 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 17, 2026 11:15am ET $319.40 38 $12,137.20 $12,286.77 $-409.64
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 18, 2026 12:35pm ET $317.85 38 $12,078.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:30am ET $304.81 38 $11,582.78 $11,791.25 $-495.52
(-4.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
8.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 9:50am ET $298.41 39 $11,637.99 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 1, 2026 9:30am ET $313.68 39 $12,233.52 $12,386.78 +$595.53
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $305.60 40 $12,224.00 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET $326.71 40 $13,068.40 $13,231.18 +$844.40
(+6.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
5d held
19 🟢 BUY Apr 8, 2026 10:40am ET $345.83 38 $13,141.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:35am ET $368.85 38 $14,016.30 $14,105.94 +$874.76
(+6.7%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 9:45am ET $370.24 38 $14,069.12 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 15, 2026 9:30am ET $390.09 38 $14,823.42 $14,860.24 +$754.30
(+5.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 10:15am ET $399.85 37 $14,794.45 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 22, 2026 2:15pm ET $419.90 37 $15,536.30 $15,602.09 +$741.85
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2.2d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 3:40pm ET $418.90 37 $15,499.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET $400.30 37 $14,811.28 $14,914.07 $-688.02
(-4.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.7d held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 29, 2026 12:30pm ET $397.52 37 $14,708.24 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 3:15pm ET $417.41 37 $15,444.17 $15,650.00 +$735.93
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,650.00
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,650.00
Total Return: +56.50%
Back to Marcus Reversal