Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:58:25

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
24.1 oversold
20d Trend
-14.4%
5d Trend
-4.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.4%
ATR%
3.0%
Range Pos
29%
Bounce Ratio
0.0×
Green/Red 10d
1/9
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

12
Lifetime
Confidence: 93%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.7/35
Total Return
7.6/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.3/15
Consistency
4.4/10
Raw Quality 13.0/100
× Confidence 0.93 = 12.1

30-Day Momentum

0
-1.4%
30d Return
33%
Win Rate
3
Trades
0.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 0.0 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-12 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (93%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
7,157
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-02 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
90 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$13,468.25
Current Value
$10,716.36
Period P&L
$-2,751.87
Max Drawdown
-35.0%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.74

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
12
Winners / Losers
2 / 10
Best Trade
+5.04%
Worst Trade
-3.94%
Avg Trade Return
-2.00%
Avg Hold Time
7.8d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$276,260.66
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-2,751.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$-2,751.87
Gross Return
-20.43%
Net Return (after fees)
-20.43%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 ISRG Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 90 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 12 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $13,468.25 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 24, 2025 9:35am ET $575.61 23 $13,239.03
🔴 SELL Jan 2, 2026 11:00am ET $557.55 23 $12,823.65 $13,207.65 $-415.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
9.1d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 12:50pm ET $600.57 21 $12,611.97
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:45am ET $581.68 21 $12,215.18 $12,810.85 $-396.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 10:50am ET $570.27 22 $12,545.83
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 9:30am ET $547.81 22 $12,051.82 $12,316.84 $-494.01
(-3.9%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 10:10am ET $545.05 22 $11,991.06
🔴 SELL Jan 20, 2026 9:30am ET $527.87 22 $11,613.03 $11,938.81 $-378.03
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 21, 2026 12:05pm ET $521.44 22 $11,471.63
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 11:55am ET $505.35 22 $11,117.70 $11,584.88 $-353.93
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 12:10pm ET $501.90 23 $11,543.70
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 11:05am ET $486.35 23 $11,185.94 $11,227.12 $-357.76
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 5, 2026 12:50pm ET $479.42 23 $11,026.77
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $492.74 23 $11,333.02 $11,533.36 +$306.25
(+2.8%)
📅 Sim Ended
4.1d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 12:20pm ET $490.45 23 $11,280.35
🔴 SELL Mar 12, 2026 12:10pm ET $475.71 23 $10,941.44 $11,194.45 $-338.91
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
23d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 13, 2026 3:40pm ET $470.82 23 $10,828.86
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 9:55am ET $456.60 23 $10,501.80 $10,867.39 $-327.06
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
13.8d held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 31, 2026 10:45am ET $450.62 24 $10,814.88
🔴 SELL Apr 17, 2026 12:00pm ET $473.35 24 $11,360.40 $11,412.91 +$545.52
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
17.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 12:35pm ET $466.06 24 $11,185.44
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 3:55pm ET $452.03 24 $10,848.72 $11,076.19 $-336.72
(-3.0%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Apr 23, 2026 10:40am ET $480.18 23 $11,044.14
🔴 SELL Apr 28, 2026 9:40am ET $464.54 23 $10,684.31 $10,716.36 $-359.83
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
5d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $10,716.36
Net Profit/Loss: +$716.36
Total Return: +7.16%
Back to Marcus Reversal