Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-07 11:59:45

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
47
Neutral
VIX
17.4
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.49%
NORMAL
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🟢 0.5
Quiet
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
45.7 neutral
20d Trend
+4.0%
5d Trend
-8.3%
EMA20 Dist
-2.4%
ATR%
4.3%
Range Pos
42%
Bounce Ratio
2.4×
Green/Red 10d
4/6

Strategy Score Scored May 7, 2026

29
Lifetime
Confidence: 98%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
7.3/35
Total Return
14.5/25
Win Rate
1.7/15
Profit Factor
1.3/15
Consistency
5.0/10
Raw Quality 29.8/100
× Confidence 0.98 = 29.2

30-Day Momentum

12
+1.6%
30d Return
67%
Win Rate
3
Trades
1.1×
Profit Factor
Quality: 18.9 Conf: 0.61×
Declining (-18 vs lifetime)
Momentum below PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (98%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,461
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-07
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$16,183.22
Current Value
$15,471.34
Period P&L
$-711.87
Max Drawdown
-26.1%
Sharpe Ratio
-0.01

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
18
Winners / Losers
7 / 11
Best Trade
+9.37%
Worst Trade
-8.40%
Avg Trade Return
-0.04%
Avg Hold Time
5.5d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$574,009.26
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$-711.87
Net P&L (after fees)
$-711.87
Gross Return
-4.40%
Net Return (after fees)
-4.40%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. Green = profitable trade, Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 META Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 18 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $16,183.22 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Dec 12, 2025 10:25am ET $644.01 24 $15,456.24
🔴 SELL Jan 12, 2026 9:30am ET $653.27 24 $15,678.48 $16,037.05 +$222.24
(+1.4%)
⏰ 30 Day Max
31d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 13, 2026 9:30am ET $639.08 25 $15,976.88
🔴 SELL Jan 14, 2026 10:40am ET $619.47 25 $15,486.63 $15,546.80 $-490.25
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 15, 2026 2:30pm ET $619.90 25 $15,497.50
🔴 SELL Jan 23, 2026 9:30am ET $651.24 25 $16,281.00 $16,330.30 +$783.50
(+5.1%)
🎯 +5% Target
7.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 27, 2026 9:35am ET $668.21 24 $16,037.04
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $730.79 24 $17,538.96 $17,832.22 +$1,501.92
(+9.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET $724.20 24 $17,380.80
🔴 SELL Feb 3, 2026 10:10am ET $700.57 24 $16,813.56 $17,264.98 $-567.24
(-3.3%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4d held
6 🟢 BUY Feb 4, 2026 10:10am ET $671.95 25 $16,798.75
🔴 SELL Feb 6, 2026 10:00am ET $650.39 25 $16,259.75 $16,725.98 $-539.00
(-3.2%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
7 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 1:25pm ET $678.90 24 $16,293.60
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET $677.37 24 $16,256.88 $16,689.26 $-36.72
(-0.2%)
📅 Sim Ended
2.5h held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET $638.98 26 $16,613.48
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:30am ET $671.00 26 $17,446.00 $17,521.78 +$832.52
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
15d held
9 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 11:05am ET $659.88 26 $17,156.88
🔴 SELL Mar 6, 2026 9:35am ET $637.57 26 $16,576.69 $16,941.59 $-580.19
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
22.5h held
10 🟢 BUY Mar 9, 2026 9:35am ET $633.57 26 $16,472.82
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 1:00pm ET $613.94 26 $15,962.44 $16,431.21 $-510.38
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.1d held
11 🟢 BUY Mar 17, 2026 10:40am ET $629.13 26 $16,357.38
🔴 SELL Mar 19, 2026 10:05am ET $609.33 26 $15,842.58 $15,916.41 $-514.80
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
12 🟢 BUY Mar 20, 2026 10:05am ET $594.66 26 $15,461.10
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 9:40am ET $576.35 26 $14,985.10 $15,440.41 $-476.00
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
6d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 9:40am ET $537.92 28 $15,061.76
🔴 SELL Mar 27, 2026 2:00pm ET $521.14 28 $14,591.78 $14,970.43 $-469.98
(-3.1%)
🛑 -10% Stop
4.3h held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 30, 2026 3:25pm ET $534.79 27 $14,439.46
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 12:40pm ET $563.76 27 $15,221.52 $15,752.49 +$782.06
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
21.3h held
15 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 2:05pm ET $585.70 26 $15,228.20
🔴 SELL Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET $565.70 26 $14,708.07 $15,232.36 $-520.13
(-3.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
19.4h held
16 🟢 BUY Apr 6, 2026 10:40am ET $575.03 26 $14,950.91
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET $606.00 26 $15,756.00 $16,037.45 +$805.09
(+5.4%)
🎯 +5% Target
2d held
17 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 1:10pm ET $632.77 25 $15,819.25
🔴 SELL Apr 14, 2026 11:55am ET $664.47 25 $16,611.63 $16,829.83 +$792.38
(+5.0%)
🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
18 🟢 BUY Apr 15, 2026 1:25pm ET $673.93 24 $16,174.32
🔴 SELL Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $617.33 24 $14,815.83 $15,471.34 $-1,358.49
(-8.4%)
🛑 -10% Stop
14.8d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $15,471.34
Net Profit/Loss: +$5,471.34
Total Return: +54.71%
Back to Marcus Reversal