MU Marcus Reversal's Analysis
Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 37 trades in period
+27.89%
Year to Date Return
$45,544.81
Current Value
51%
Win Rate
$35,611.87
Period Start
PHASE 0: RANGING
🔄 Transitioning
No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.
Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
37.4 neutral
20d Trend
-12.8%
5d Trend
-1.7%
EMA20 Dist
-6.9%
ATR%
5.6%
Range Pos
6%
Bounce Ratio
0.6×
Green/Red 10d
3/7
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.
Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026
68
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%
Quality Components
Return-to-Risk
35.0/35
Total Return
21.2/25
Win Rate
2.8/15
Profit Factor
3.9/15
Consistency
5.9/10
Raw Quality
68.7/100
× Confidence 0.99
= 67.8
30-Day Momentum
87
+48.6%
30d Return
80%
Win Rate
10
Trades
4.4×
Profit Factor
Quality: 100.0
Conf: 0.87×
Accelerating (+19 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works:
Score = Quality × Confidence.
Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions:
Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts).
Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness —
more trades + recent activity = higher confidence.
Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window.
PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.
Data Transparency (Year to Date)
Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,493
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-06
Trading Days
93 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)
Market Closed (4 days)
2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets
✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET
To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.
Performance Summary (Year to Date)
Period Start Capital
$35,611.87
Current Value
$45,544.81
Period P&L
$9,932.97
Max Drawdown
-27.8%
Sharpe Ratio
0.15
Trade Statistics (Year to Date)
Trades in Period
37
Winners / Losers
19 /
18
Best Trade
+10.62%
Worst Trade
-8.86%
Avg Trade Return
+0.81%
Avg Hold Time
1.6d
💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)
Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$2,933,445.62
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$9,932.97
Net P&L (after fees)
$9,932.97
Gross Return
+27.89%
Net Return (after fees)
+27.89%
✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading.
No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.
Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time
Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.
The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
Price Action + Equity Overlay
📈 MU Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.
🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 93 trading days
🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points
Trade History (Year to Date - 37 trades)
How to Read This Table
Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $35,611.87 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.
| # | Action | Date & Time | Price/Share | Shares | Total Value | Balance After | Result | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🟢 BUY | Dec 24, 2025 11:15am ET | $285.88 | 124 | $35,448.50 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $302.59 | 124 | $37,521.16 | $37,706.20 |
+$2,072.66 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
8.9d held |
|
| 2 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 5, 2026 11:40am ET | $313.80 | 120 | $37,656.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 6, 2026 9:50am ET | $331.89 | 120 | $39,826.80 | $39,877.00 |
+$2,170.80 (+5.8%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.2h held |
|
| 3 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 7, 2026 11:35am ET | $341.53 | 116 | $39,617.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 8, 2026 9:55am ET | $328.58 | 116 | $38,115.29 | $38,374.81 |
$-1,502.19 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
22.3h held |
|
| 4 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 9, 2026 12:25pm ET | $338.89 | 113 | $38,294.57 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $359.80 | 113 | $40,657.46 | $40,737.70 |
+$2,362.89 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
6.9d held |
|
| 5 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 20, 2026 11:00am ET | $368.71 | 110 | $40,558.10 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 21, 2026 10:30am ET | $389.01 | 110 | $42,791.10 | $42,970.70 |
+$2,233.00 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
23.5h held |
|
| 6 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $400.64 | 107 | $42,868.49 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $385.13 | 107 | $41,208.91 | $41,311.12 |
$-1,659.58 (-3.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 7 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 27, 2026 11:05am ET | $407.07 | 101 | $41,114.08 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 28, 2026 9:35am ET | $429.22 | 101 | $43,351.22 | $43,548.26 |
+$2,237.14 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 8 | 🟢 BUY | Jan 29, 2026 10:50am ET | $419.84 | 103 | $43,243.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Jan 30, 2026 9:30am ET | $447.52 | 103 | $46,094.56 | $46,399.30 |
+$2,851.04 (+6.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.7h held |
|
| 9 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 2, 2026 2:05pm ET | $437.58 | 106 | $46,383.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 3, 2026 9:55am ET | $418.51 | 106 | $44,362.06 | $44,377.52 |
$-2,021.78 (-4.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.8h held |
|
| 10 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 4, 2026 10:15am ET | $393.95 | 112 | $44,121.85 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 4, 2026 11:00am ET | $381.06 | 112 | $42,678.72 | $42,934.39 |
$-1,443.13 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
48m held |
|
| 11 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 5, 2026 3:25pm ET | $380.48 | 112 | $42,613.76 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 9, 2026 3:55pm ET | $384.19 | 112 | $43,029.28 | $43,349.91 |
+$415.52 (+1.0%) |
📅 Sim Ended
4d held |
|
| 12 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 17, 2026 9:30am ET | $400.61 | 108 | $43,265.88 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 18, 2026 10:25am ET | $421.36 | 108 | $45,506.88 | $45,590.91 |
+$2,241.00 (+5.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 13 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 19, 2026 11:50am ET | $413.74 | 110 | $45,511.73 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 25, 2026 9:45am ET | $436.20 | 110 | $47,982.00 | $48,061.18 |
+$2,470.27 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
5.9d held |
|
| 14 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 26, 2026 9:50am ET | $420.70 | 114 | $47,960.37 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Feb 26, 2026 10:20am ET | $405.40 | 114 | $46,216.17 | $46,316.98 |
$-1,744.20 (-3.6%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
30m held |
|
| 15 | 🟢 BUY | Feb 27, 2026 1:15pm ET | $409.92 | 112 | $45,911.43 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET | $385.00 | 112 | $43,120.00 | $43,525.55 |
$-2,791.43 (-6.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
3.8d held |
|
| 16 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 4, 2026 1:15pm ET | $402.46 | 108 | $43,465.68 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 5, 2026 12:35pm ET | $387.07 | 108 | $41,803.56 | $41,863.43 |
$-1,662.12 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
23.3h held |
|
| 17 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 6, 2026 12:45pm ET | $385.19 | 108 | $41,600.52 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 6, 2026 3:25pm ET | $372.08 | 108 | $40,184.64 | $40,447.55 |
$-1,415.88 (-3.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.7h held |
|
| 18 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 10, 2026 12:05pm ET | $410.74 | 98 | $40,252.51 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 12, 2026 11:10am ET | $398.11 | 98 | $39,014.78 | $39,209.82 |
$-1,237.73 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2d held |
|
| 19 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 13, 2026 1:50pm ET | $419.62 | 93 | $39,025.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 16, 2026 9:30am ET | $446.54 | 93 | $41,528.22 | $41,713.01 |
+$2,503.19 (+6.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2.8d held |
|
| 20 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 18, 2026 1:25pm ET | $465.23 | 89 | $41,405.84 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET | $424.00 | 89 | $37,736.00 | $38,043.17 |
$-3,669.84 (-8.9%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.1h held |
|
| 21 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 20, 2026 9:55am ET | $439.64 | 86 | $37,809.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 20, 2026 10:55am ET | $426.03 | 86 | $36,638.58 | $36,872.28 |
$-1,170.89 (-3.1%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 22 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 23, 2026 11:30am ET | $415.13 | 88 | $36,531.45 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 23, 2026 12:30pm ET | $401.88 | 88 | $35,365.44 | $35,706.27 |
$-1,166.01 (-3.2%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1h held |
|
| 23 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 24, 2026 1:25pm ET | $390.80 | 91 | $35,562.80 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 25, 2026 9:35am ET | $377.00 | 91 | $34,307.00 | $34,450.47 |
$-1,255.80 (-3.5%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.2h held |
|
| 24 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 26, 2026 9:35am ET | $373.54 | 92 | $34,365.48 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 26, 2026 10:55am ET | $361.26 | 92 | $33,235.46 | $33,320.45 |
$-1,130.02 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.3h held |
|
| 25 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 27, 2026 12:40pm ET | $362.65 | 91 | $33,001.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 30, 2026 9:40am ET | $345.18 | 91 | $31,411.83 | $31,731.13 |
$-1,589.32 (-4.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held |
|
| 26 | 🟢 BUY | Mar 31, 2026 9:40am ET | $314.28 | 100 | $31,428.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Mar 31, 2026 12:45pm ET | $331.30 | 100 | $33,130.50 | $33,433.63 |
+$1,702.50 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
3.1h held |
|
| 27 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 1, 2026 2:00pm ET | $372.23 | 89 | $33,128.47 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 2, 2026 9:30am ET | $340.91 | 89 | $30,340.63 | $30,645.79 |
$-2,787.84 (-8.4%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
19.5h held |
|
| 28 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 7, 2026 9:30am ET | $374.42 | 81 | $30,328.03 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 8, 2026 9:30am ET | $414.18 | 81 | $33,548.98 | $33,866.75 |
+$3,220.96 (+10.6%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 29 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 9, 2026 10:45am ET | $401.04 | 84 | $33,686.94 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 9, 2026 3:35pm ET | $423.13 | 84 | $35,542.50 | $35,722.31 |
+$1,855.56 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
4.8h held |
|
| 30 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 13, 2026 9:30am ET | $416.43 | 85 | $35,396.55 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 14, 2026 10:20am ET | $437.65 | 85 | $37,200.25 | $37,526.01 |
+$1,803.70 (+5.1%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 31 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 15, 2026 10:20am ET | $445.49 | 84 | $37,421.16 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 17, 2026 9:35am ET | $469.57 | 84 | $39,443.88 | $39,548.73 |
+$2,022.72 (+5.4%) |
🎯 +5% Target
2d held |
|
| 32 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 20, 2026 9:40am ET | $453.00 | 87 | $39,411.00 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 20, 2026 11:05am ET | $438.11 | 87 | $38,116.00 | $38,253.73 |
$-1,295.00 (-3.3%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
1.4h held |
|
| 33 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 21, 2026 11:05am ET | $442.54 | 86 | $38,058.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 22, 2026 9:35am ET | $466.80 | 86 | $40,144.80 | $40,340.09 |
+$2,086.36 (+5.5%) |
🎯 +5% Target
22.5h held |
|
| 34 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 23, 2026 9:35am ET | $478.16 | 84 | $40,165.44 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 24, 2026 10:30am ET | $502.30 | 84 | $42,193.62 | $42,368.27 |
+$2,028.18 (+5.0%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1d held |
|
| 35 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 27, 2026 12:50pm ET | $522.35 | 81 | $42,310.35 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | Apr 28, 2026 9:30am ET | $502.27 | 81 | $40,683.87 | $40,741.79 |
$-1,626.48 (-3.8%) |
🛑 -10% Stop
20.7h held |
|
| 36 | 🟢 BUY | Apr 29, 2026 11:55am ET | $517.88 | 78 | $40,394.64 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 1, 2026 10:10am ET | $545.55 | 78 | $42,552.90 | $42,900.05 |
+$2,158.26 (+5.3%) |
🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held |
|
| 37 | 🟢 BUY | May 4, 2026 2:10pm ET | $573.63 | 74 | $42,448.62 | — | — | — |
| 🔴 SELL | May 5, 2026 9:30am ET | $609.37 | 74 | $45,093.38 | $45,544.81 |
+$2,644.76 (+6.2%) |
🎯 +5% Target
19.3h held |
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested:
$10,000.00
Ended with:
$45,544.81
Net Profit/Loss:
+$35,544.81
Total Return:
+355.45%