Compendium › Marcus Reversal › NIO
Simulated with $10,000 starting capital
Period: 1M 3M 6M YTD 1Y 2Y
NIO
Alpaca Tradeable

Marcus Reversal's Analysis

Year to Date: 2026-01-01 to present • 27 trades in period

+38.37%
Year to Date Return
$7,740.70
Current Value
52%
Win Rate
$5,594.36
Period Start
Login to Apply
PHASE 0: RANGING
Signals generated 2026-05-06 08:58:20

No strong directional signal. Monitor for regime shift.

Fear & Greed
46
Fear
VIX
17.0
NORMAL
10Y Yield
4.45%
ELEVATED
Yield Curve
+0.51%
STEEP
HY Spread
2.77
CALM
🌍 Kp Index
🔴 1.7
Storm
⛈️ 4 storm days in 7d
RSI(14)
47.7 neutral
20d Trend
-0.8%
5d Trend
-0.8%
EMA20 Dist
-0.1%
ATR%
4.5%
Range Pos
9%
Bounce Ratio
2.0×
Green/Red 10d
5/5
🌍 Geophysical Tilt: Storm regime: volume-spike & macro strategies historically +3% differential. Sentiment strategies struggle.

Strategy Score Scored May 6, 2026

4
Lifetime
Confidence: 99%

Quality Components

Return-to-Risk
0.0/35
Total Return
0.0/25
Win Rate
0.0/15
Profit Factor
0.0/15
Consistency
4.5/10
Raw Quality 4.5/100
× Confidence 0.99 = 4.4

30-Day Momentum

54
+18.4%
30d Return
63%
Win Rate
8
Trades
1.9×
Profit Factor
Quality: 66.4 Conf: 0.81×
Accelerating (+49 vs lifetime)
Momentum meets PRO threshold (40+)
How Scoring Works: Score = Quality × Confidence. Quality (0-100) rates absolute performance across 5 dimensions: Return-to-Risk (35pts), Total Return (25pts), Win Rate (15pts), Profit Factor (15pts), Consistency (10pts). Confidence (99%) adjusts for trade count and freshness — more trades + recent activity = higher confidence. Momentum uses the same model recalibrated for a 30-day trailing window. PRO status requires both Lifetime Score ≥ 70 and Momentum ≥ 40.

Data Transparency (Year to Date)

Hybrid data: Historical backfill + Yahoo/Alpaca (live) - verifiable market data
Data Source
Yahoo + Alpaca
Candles in Period
9,229
Timeframe
5-Minute Bars
Period Range
2026-01-01 → 2026-05-05
Trading Days
91 days
Data Gaps
None (4 market holidays)

Market Closed (4 days)

2026-01-01 — New Year's Day, 2026-01-19 — MLK Jr. Day, 2026-02-16 — Presidents' Day, 2026-04-03 — Good Friday
Brokerage: Alpaca Markets

✓ Tradeable on Alpaca
Stocks: Commission-free • Market hours: 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET

To execute these strategies, you'll need an Alpaca brokerage account.

Performance Summary (Year to Date)

Period Start Capital
$5,594.36
Current Value
$7,740.70
Period P&L
$2,146.31
Max Drawdown
-51.1%
Sharpe Ratio
0.28

Trade Statistics (Year to Date)

Trades in Period
27
Winners / Losers
14 / 13
Best Trade
+9.30%
Worst Trade
-5.72%
Avg Trade Return
+1.32%
Avg Hold Time
2.6d

💰 Trading Cost Analysis (Alpaca Fees) (Year to Date)

Asset Type
📈 Stock
Fee Rate
FREE
Total Volume
$339,941.39
Estimated Fees
$0.00
Gross P&L
$2,146.31
Net P&L (after fees)
$2,146.31
Gross Return
+38.37%
Net Return (after fees)
+38.37%

✅ Stocks: Alpaca offers commission-free stock trading. No fees on this symbol!
Actual fees may vary based on your volume tier. See Alpaca pricing.

Equity Curve — Your Money Over Time

Each dot is a completed trade. ● Green = profitable trade, ● Red = losing trade. Hover for details.

The dashed blue line shows your starting $10,000. Points above = profit, points below = loss.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset

Price Action + Equity Overlay

📈 NIO Price (left axis) vs 📊 Your Equity (right axis). See how the stock price moved while you held positions.

🖱️ Scroll to zoom • Click & drag to pan • Double-click to reset
📊 Price data: 91 trading days 🎯 Trade markers show BUY (▲) and SELL (▼) points

Trade History (Year to Date - 27 trades)

How to Read This Table

Each row is one complete trade cycle (BUY → HOLD → SELL). Marcus Reversal had $5,594.36 at period start. When he sees a buy signal, he uses all available cash to buy shares. He holds until hitting his +5% target, -10% stop loss, or 30-day limit. After selling, the profit/loss is added to his balance, and the next trade uses that new balance.

# Action Date & Time Price/Share Shares Total Value Balance After Result Exit Reason
1 🟢 BUY Jan 2, 2026 12:40pm ET $5.15 1,087 $5,592.62 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 5, 2026 9:30am ET $4.97 1,087 $5,396.96 $5,398.74 $-195.66
(-3.5%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
2 🟢 BUY Jan 6, 2026 10:45am ET $4.90 1,101 $5,394.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 6, 2026 3:20pm ET $4.75 1,101 $5,229.75 $5,233.59 $-165.15
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
4.6h held
3 🟢 BUY Jan 7, 2026 3:55pm ET $4.78 1,094 $5,229.32 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 9, 2026 10:05am ET $4.63 1,094 $5,059.75 $5,064.02 $-169.57
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.8d held
4 🟢 BUY Jan 12, 2026 12:55pm ET $4.87 1,040 $5,059.60 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 13, 2026 10:05am ET $4.71 1,040 $4,898.40 $4,902.82 $-161.20
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.2h held
5 🟢 BUY Jan 14, 2026 10:05am ET $4.63 1,060 $4,902.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 22, 2026 9:50am ET $4.86 1,060 $5,151.49 $5,151.82 +$248.99
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
8d held
6 🟢 BUY Jan 23, 2026 9:50am ET $4.66 1,105 $5,149.30 — — —
🔴 SELL Jan 29, 2026 9:30am ET $4.94 1,105 $5,454.28 $5,456.80 +$304.98
(+5.9%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
7 🟢 BUY Jan 30, 2026 10:40am ET $4.81 1,135 $5,453.68 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.53 1,135 $5,141.55 $5,144.67 $-312.12
(-5.7%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
3d held
8 🟢 BUY Feb 3, 2026 12:00pm ET $4.53 1,136 $5,140.40 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 5, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 1,136 $5,413.04 $5,417.31 +$272.64
(+5.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.9d held
9 🟢 BUY Feb 9, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 1,138 $5,416.54 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 9, 2026 10:45am ET $5.00 1,138 $5,689.54 $5,690.32 +$273.01
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.3h held
10 🟢 BUY Feb 17, 2026 10:40am ET $4.93 1,155 $5,688.38 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 23, 2026 9:30am ET $5.22 1,155 $6,029.10 $6,031.04 +$340.72
(+6.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
6d held
11 🟢 BUY Feb 24, 2026 10:30am ET $5.20 1,158 $6,027.39 — — —
🔴 SELL Feb 26, 2026 12:45pm ET $5.05 1,158 $5,846.16 $5,849.81 $-181.23
(-3.0%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.1d held
12 🟢 BUY Feb 27, 2026 1:05pm ET $4.91 1,190 $5,848.85 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 2, 2026 9:30am ET $4.76 1,190 $5,664.40 $5,665.36 $-184.45
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2.9d held
13 🟢 BUY Mar 3, 2026 9:30am ET $4.51 1,254 $5,661.81 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 4, 2026 10:05am ET $4.74 1,254 $5,950.23 $5,953.78 +$288.42
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1d held
14 🟢 BUY Mar 5, 2026 10:05am ET $4.74 1,256 $5,953.31 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 10, 2026 9:30am ET $5.18 1,256 $6,506.96 $6,507.42 +$553.64
(+9.3%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
15 🟢 BUY Mar 11, 2026 10:55am ET $5.61 1,160 $6,505.98 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 13, 2026 10:35am ET $5.89 1,160 $6,834.02 $6,835.47 +$328.05
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
2d held
16 🟢 BUY Mar 16, 2026 11:55am ET $6.11 1,119 $6,831.50 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 18, 2026 9:30am ET $5.90 1,119 $6,602.10 $6,606.08 $-229.39
(-3.4%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.9d held
17 🟢 BUY Mar 19, 2026 9:30am ET $5.73 1,152 $6,601.08 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 20, 2026 10:50am ET $5.55 1,152 $6,391.41 $6,396.41 $-209.66
(-3.2%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1.1d held
18 🟢 BUY Mar 24, 2026 12:10pm ET $5.82 1,098 $6,391.90 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 26, 2026 12:10pm ET $5.64 1,098 $6,192.72 $6,197.23 $-199.18
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
2d held
19 🟢 BUY Mar 27, 2026 1:10pm ET $5.41 1,145 $6,196.05 — — —
🔴 SELL Mar 31, 2026 9:55am ET $5.71 1,145 $6,537.95 $6,539.13 +$341.90
(+5.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.9d held
20 🟢 BUY Apr 1, 2026 11:35am ET $6.11 1,071 $6,538.46 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 6, 2026 9:35am ET $6.42 1,071 $6,874.00 $6,874.67 +$335.54
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
21 🟢 BUY Apr 7, 2026 9:35am ET $6.13 1,121 $6,871.73 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 8, 2026 11:05am ET $6.45 1,121 $7,224.85 $7,227.79 +$353.12
(+5.1%) 		🎯 +5% Target
1.1d held
22 🟢 BUY Apr 9, 2026 11:05am ET $6.12 1,180 $7,224.20 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 10, 2026 9:50am ET $6.52 1,180 $7,693.60 $7,697.19 +$469.40
(+6.5%) 		🎯 +5% Target
22.8h held
23 🟢 BUY Apr 13, 2026 10:55am ET $6.47 1,190 $7,693.35 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 16, 2026 2:50pm ET $6.79 1,190 $8,078.31 $8,082.15 +$384.96
(+5.0%) 		🎯 +5% Target
3.2d held
24 🟢 BUY Apr 20, 2026 9:30am ET $6.74 1,198 $8,075.72 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 21, 2026 9:55am ET $6.53 1,198 $7,824.62 $7,831.05 $-251.10
(-3.1%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
25 🟢 BUY Apr 22, 2026 12:25pm ET $6.53 1,198 $7,828.93 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 23, 2026 9:50am ET $6.32 1,198 $7,571.36 $7,573.48 $-257.57
(-3.3%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
21.4h held
26 🟢 BUY Apr 24, 2026 12:50pm ET $6.20 1,220 $7,570.10 — — —
🔴 SELL Apr 29, 2026 9:30am ET $6.60 1,220 $8,052.00 $8,055.38 +$481.90
(+6.4%) 		🎯 +5% Target
4.9d held
27 🟢 BUY Apr 30, 2026 9:30am ET $6.26 1,286 $8,049.97 — — —
🔴 SELL May 1, 2026 9:50am ET $6.01 1,286 $7,735.29 $7,740.70 $-314.68
(-3.9%) 		🛑 -10% Stop
1d held
Started with: $10,000.00
Total Invested: $10,000.00
Ended with: $7,740.70
Net Profit/Loss: $-2,259.30
Total Return: -22.59%
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